According to my numbers and models, this seems like a nice value bet on Sassuolo. For full numbers for this match and 28. Week of Serie A, please visit my blog.
1,95 x 0,69
My projected odds
1,49 4,88 8,12
2,06 3,26 4
Bet 1, odds 2,06, kelly adj. 3,61%
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Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar
Greetings and salutations!
My recommended bet today will be from the hungarian basketball league. We will look at the match between MAFC Budapest and Kecskemeti KTE-Duna.
MAFC are 4-17 (-198 point difference) and are sitting at the bottom of the table. They are the worst team in the league from every aspect. At home, they score fewer points than the league average by 8.5 points. They also concede more than the league average, by 3 points. They are 0-5 in their last five home games, losing in average by 15.6 points. They also lost their last 3 home games against KTE-Duna in the league in the past (with a considerable point difference too!).
On the other hand we have KTE-Duna. They are fighting for a place in the Winner’s stage playoff rounds. They are the second best away team in the league, with a record of 7-4 and +36 point difference. They are 4-1 in their last 5 away games, losing only to Szedeak 70-62. In comparison to the league average in the games away from home, they score more by 3 and concede fewer by 5.
My projected lines:
Play KTE-Duna -6.5 @ 1.860
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Derby is always tough to predict. But this match offers really interesting odds and I can´t leave it behind without bet. Chievo is playing very poorly and I just can´t miss the opportunity to play against in odds over 3.According to my model, Verona should be favorite. According to bookies, it´s an underdog. So clear value.
Expected goals 1,59 – 0,55
1,59 – 4,08 – 7,96
3,5 – 3,34 – 2,28
My bet Verona win, adj. Kelly 4,81%
More bets for tomorrow will come, if you wanna see all number, please visit my blog
This is the game from French Woman basketball league.
Union Hainat is third worst team in the league and they lost 6 straight games now, including one in Eurocup against Venezia by more than 30 points.
They are not playing well right now and they lose games by average of 10 points per game. They are just 2-5 at home, where they lose games by more than 10 points. The last game they won was against Nantes, which was pretty big surprise win.
They will face Montpellier, who is much better team with the record of 8-8 and +14 point difference. In last 5 games, they have 3 losses, but two of the losses came against 3rd and 2nd best teams in the league. And when we talk about French basketball league, there are three teams that have point difference of more than +100 points.
What is very interesting with Montpellier is that they are one of 4 teams, that have positive road point difference and I think that the line is set little bit too low.
According to my projections, Montpellier could win this game by around 15 points.
Play Montpellier -6.5 (1.78)
There were played 3 round since winter break in Czech First League and situation of both teams can´t be much more different. Dukla had big problems even before winter break (especially as a visitors), but now thing seems even worse. 0-1-2 1:4 after 3 games with average opponents and very bad play.
On the other side, Jihlava seems like all ghosts were left behind during winter and new power rise up under new coach Martin Svejdik. 3-0-0 5:1, all with better teams. Even away victory with the best team in Czech Rep, Viktoria Plzen.
For Jihlava, this was first away points this season. Weak away results are probably the reason behind high odds, can´t see any more reasons. And this reason is a little bit off line as well, as there is a new coach and team get new power and self-confidence. Jihlava has some very good attacking players and they were underperforming in last months. I think that they are finally showing their true qualities now.
Must play for me with these odds. Even away victory could be nice (and more risky, of course) bet with offered odds
FC Vysocina Jihlava AH +0,5, odds 1,76
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Jiri “frisbald” Kaspar, BA (Hons)
My recommended bet today will be from the french basketball league – LNB Pro B. It is a match between Rouen and Nancy.
Bookie’s projected lines:
Rouen, sitting at the 9th, are hosting Nancy (7th) in today’s game. Rouen are on the edge of qualifying for the play-offs, but there is still some league rounds to be played until it is decided who makes the play-offs and who does not. Rouen are also the 15th team when it comes to matches played at home (4th worst) with the record of 4-6 and point difference of -32. In average they let their opponents score 77.8 points, which is worse than the league average by 3.5 points. Both teams are on a losing streak. Rouen haven’t won in their last 4 games (average loss by 11.5 points) and Nancy lost their last 3 games too.
If we look at Nancy, they are an above average away team. Even though their away record is 5-5 with +29 point difference, they sit at the 7th place when it comes to teams playing away from home.
As I mentioned, they are on a 3-game long losing streak, but they lost all those games by a just a few points (3, 3 and 4). They have a chance to make a turnaround here and get back on winning waves. When Nancy play away from home, they score a little bit more than the league average (by 1.5 points) but they concede 4.5 fewer points than the league average.
My projected lines:
Play Nancy -1.5 @ 1.890
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Florida Panthers can still reach playoff spot an they have realistic chances and to reach this goal, they need some more wins. Because of that they are very attractive team to bet, especially against Montreal, that has a bad season and are playing without Carey Price. Florida is also on a pretty good streak winning 6 out of last 7 games, so betting on them is most logical thing, isn’t it?
Public will be on Florida tonight, this is for sure, but the odds still dropped on Montreal. I also projected, that this game could be much closer than most people think. I have even projected, that this game could be very close one and if I adjust the numbers because of injuries, I still think that +175 is little bit too much on Florida.
Montreal is playing some good ice hockey against Florida since 2017 as they beat them in last 4 out of 5 games and even that last game was very close one, where Reimer made 38 shots. Panthers has been very good lately at home and this is why we also get little much lower odds on them.
Play Montreal +173 / 2.73
This bet goes without expected goals, as I´m not modeling my numbers for Europe League. But even without expected goals, this seems like a clear value bet. Odds were higher earlier, but anything over 2 is still nice. I think Milano win is somewhere around 60-65% range, so odds should be still lower then now.
The situation of both teams can´t be more different. I was writing about both in last days (here on BB and on my blog as well), so there is so need to repeat it. AC is on fire, Arsenal is struggling, making huge errors in defense, playing without confidence. AW doesn´t seem like a man, who can bring his boys back from this and I think it´s only matter of time before he (finally) leave. But till that day, we can still make some bitcoins.
My bet for this game is really straightforward, AC Milano win, odds 2,06
For today’s bet I chose to look at the Slovakian basketball league. I will recommend a bet in a match between Košice and Inter Bratislava.
Inter Bratislava: +2.5
There are the two best teams in the league. Inter Bratislava sitting in the 1st place with 29-4 and +572 point difference. Košice are in the 2nd place with 24-9 and +440 point difference. Košice are the highest scoring home team in the league, averaging 101 points scored at home. In average they let their opponents score 81.5 points. They score more than the league average by 12.5 points. They are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, losing to Levice and Prievidza in high scoring games (109-115 against Levice and 95-99 against Prievidza). These two teams are sitting in the 3rd and 4th place respectively. That is important because it shows, that when Košice are playing against strong teams at home, they tend to score a lot and also let the opponents score a lot. In these last 10 home games for Kosice, only one finished with fewer points scored than the today’s Total line is (83-79 vs BK Svit).
Košice are going up agaisnt Inter Bratislava, last season’s champions. In average, Inter Bratislava scores 93.5 points in a game away from home and they let their opponents score 78.5 points. They are 9-1 in their last 10 away games, losing against Košice (92-82) in December last year. In these last 10 away games, only one ended with fewer points that the today’s line is (60-92 vs Handlova).
My projected lines:
Inter Bratislava: -0.5
Play Over 166.5 @ 1.850
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