NHL: Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins

Boston Bruins are playing some really nice ice hockey right now. They are 3-0 in last 3 games and despite they play without very important player Bergeron, they still found the way how to win. Bergeron is a big miss for this team, but they also bring some new guys and the biggest star is definitely Rick Nash, who already scored for a new team.

Boston is a playoff team and this is why they upgraded their team with some new players and gave away couple of other players and “valuable things” (2018 1st round pick for example).

Detroit on the other side are out of playoffs this season and they know it. They lost 6 out of last 8 games and they also have very bad record against Detroit in the past.

Detroit lost 9 straight games in Boston and they also lost 17 out of last 21 meetings.

My betting model gives Detroit around 29.78% of chance to win this game. My fair odds on Detroit are +236. On the other side I have Boston at -236 and because bookmakers give us Boston at around -200, there is a small value.

I will take Boston -1.5, because they are playing very good ice hockey. They are also playing at home, where they have been very good (last 3 months home games: 15-5, ROI:+20%) and they have very good recent record against Detroit too.

Play Boston (1.5) 2.38/+138

Bet at Bitcoinrush

TUR: Büyükçekmece vs Anadolu Efes

This is a game from Turkish basketball league between Büyükçekmece and Anadolu Efes. Home team Büyükçekmece is coming to this game after 2 straight wins and they are just 4 points behind Anadolu and 2 points above relegation zone and second worst placed team Usak.

Anadolu Efes is 6th best team in Turkey with the record of 12-6, but I can not ignore their road record of 3-5 and point difference of -56. They are better team than Büyükçekmece, but they will also play against home team, that has winning record at home (5-3, +91 point difference) and gained some momentum in last two games. They beat 5th best Banvitspor on the road and 9th best team at home combined +34 point difference in those two games.

What I expect from home team is at least to keep this game very close and +5.5 looks little bit too big right now, especially if we know, that Anadolu is not playing that well on the road and they have negative point differntial.

Play Büyükçekmece +5.5 (1.90)

Bet at Cloudbet

LTU: Neptunas – Nevezis

Hello, everyone!

After yesterday’s win in Slovakian league I am here again with a smaller league basketball play. We look at Lithuanian league to find a value play in a match between Neptunas Klaipeda and BC Nevezis.

Bookie’s lines:
Neptunas Klaipeda: -9.5
BC Nevezis: +9.5
Totals: 159.5

Neptunas are the joint best home team in the league so far this season, with the record of 10-2 and +136 point difference. In average they score 87.75 points at home, which is also the 2nd best average in the league (only behind Vilnius). In average, they win their home games by 11 points. They are on a 3 game long losing streak at home (including 2 cup games) so they will definitely have extra motivation to get back to the winning way in front of their home crowd. When one of the weakest away teams visit, it is the perfect opportunity.

Nevezis are 3-7 in their last 10 away games. In average, they concede 85.75 points when playing away from home. They lost their last 3 away matches in the league by 10, 29 and 26 points respectively. They are not on the best streak away from home, and they are visiting the 2nd best home team in the league, as I mentioned.

These two teams already met this season in a home game for BC Nevezis. Nevezis lost at home 74-85. Last time Neptunas lost to Nevezis at home in the league was in 2012. Since then they are on a 9 game long winning streak against them. In these games they won by 24.2 points in average, and only twice they did not beat the spread which the bookies set for today.

My projected lines:
Neptunas Klaipeda: -17.5
BC Nevezis: +17.5
Totals: 165.5

Check out my Steemit page, where I share my daily NBA projections. Also, you can follow me on Twitter, where I share more picks from different sports too!

Play Neptunas -9.5 @ 1.860

Bet at Cloudbet

SVK: Iskra Svit – MBK Handlova

Hello, everyone!

I decided to make a bet in my domestic basketball league. We look at slovakian basketball league today to find a value play. I picked a match between BK Iskra Svit and MBK Handlová.

Bookie’s lines:
BK Iskra Svit: -14.5
MBK Handlová: +14.5
Totals: 175.5

Iskra Svit are 11-6 at home, with +149 points. Generally, they lose at home to stronger teams (Levice, Inter Bratislava, Prievidza) but they are showing a strong home advantage against the rest of the league. On the other side, we have MBK Handlová, who are maintaining a losing streak away from home. They haven’t win in their last 8 away games, losing in average by 30 points. That however inclued their last away game, which they lost to Prievidza by 116 points. Yes, 116 points. 146-30. Unreal. I think their main objective today will be not to repeat this kind of loss again. They are 2-14 away, with -386 points.

My projected lines:
BK Iskra Svit: -27.5
MBK Handlová: +27.5
Totals: 181.5

You can check my Steemit page, where I post my projected NBA odds every day. Also, you can follow me on Twitter for more shared bets.

Play BK Iskra Svit -14.5 @ 1.840

Bet at Cloudbet

SPAL vs Bologna

According to my numbers, statistics, and model, Bologna should be favored here. Bookies seem it a different way, so  the odds offers the best value from Saturday Serie A matches. And I´m choosing it for today bet.


My expected goals, projected odds, Cloudbet odds and adjusted Kelly for this match:

SPAL               1,43                              3,65                       2,43       -2,34%

DRAW                                                  4,63                       3,17        -1,45%

BOLOGNA    2,01                               1,93                       3,16       +2,95%


Seems like nice value bet on Bologna.

You can find all my expected goals and projected lines for 27. Week on my blog www.frisbald.com

Bet on Cloudbet

FRA (w): Tarbes – Nice

In almost every single smaller league we have one very weak team that is beaten badly by other teams in almost every single game. In French woman basketball league this team is Nice.

They lose games by an average of 13 points per game and on the road is is even worse. They lose road games by an average of 17 points.

Today they will face third best home team in the league – Tarbes.

Tarbes is a winning team with the record of 8-7. They lost 2 out of last 3 games, but we also must say, that thet lost both games against higher placed teams, including one game against Bourges, which is the best team in this league with +318 point difference.

Tarbes in on 7th place right now, but this is a dangerous zone, because we have two teams just behind them and this is one of those games, that they must win. Nice is a weak team, that didn’t win any road game this season and I don’t believe that they can beat 3rd best home team in the league.

A lot of bookmakers dropped the odds on Tarbes, but bitcon bookmaker Sportsbet has one of the best odds for European leagues and I think Tarbes -10.5 for the price of 1.86 is a good deal for every bettor.

Play Tarbes -10.5 (1.86)

Bet at Sportsbet

NBA – New York Knicks at Los Angeles Clippers

Hi guys!

I have a recommended bet today in a game where New York Knicks travel to LA to pay a visit to Clippers.

Bookie’s lines:

New York Knicks: +9
Los Angeles Clippers: -9

Totals: 225.5

Clippers are 16-13 at home, while Knicks are one of the weakest road teams in the league (8-24). About the Knicks, on their road games, almost 75% of their field goal attempts are 2-point attempts and they are averaging a 52% conversion rate from those attempts. I also project around 6 succesful blocks on the Knicks side, which is by 20% more, than the league average of blocks per game (around 5).

Clippers score in average around 108 points at home, while Knicks’ average away points is around 101. In their head-to-head games, these two teams beat the today’s total line only twice since 2010. Clippers have high scoring away games in the last couple of weeks, but at home, they beat the today’s total line only twice in their last 10 games. Clipper’s average game totals in their last 10 home games is 215.1 points. New York Knicks’ last 10 away games averaged 213.5 points. Since 1999, when these two teams met in Los Angeles, they beat the today’s total line only twice, one of those occasions was after an overtime win of Clippers (128-124) in February 2009.

It might look as a risky bet, but the truth is, betting is always risky. What also supports my pick today is my NBA model, where I use advanced NBA stats to project my own lines, which then I compare with bookmaker’s lines to see if there is any considerable difference. My lines for this game:

New York Knicks: +7
Los Angeles Clippers: -7

Totals: 214

You can check my projected lines for all games on my Steemit page. Also, I share more picks on my Twitter.

Play Under 225.5 @ -105 / 1.95

Bet at BitcoinRush

FRA (B Basketball): Lille vs Quimper

This is the game from French second basketball league between Lille and Quimper, where one of the best teams in the league will face the second worst team.

When we take a look at the table there is only 3 point difference between first team and sixth team and I think this will be a hard battle until the end. Lille is one of those teams, in fact they are 5th best team right now, but they lost 3 straight games now and this game is one of those, where they will need to step up.

First of all, Lille 13-6 to the season with point difference +77. At home they are 9-1 and 5 out of 6 losses are on the road.

Quimper on the other side is the second worst teams in the league with the record 5-14 and point difference -157. In last 5 games they won 3 out of them and what is even more interesting, they won three straight games.

But if we check who they faced, they played against below average teams in all last 5 games. They will face for the first time one team that is in top 5. Note also, that Quimper has the worst point differential on the road with -113 points.

I think this whole situation needs small correction at this moment. Lille is still much stronger and they need to step up, on the other side bettors who will rely on current Quimper form (3 straight wins) could be fooled, because they didn’t face any of top teams. This will happen today and I expect that Lille wins this by at least 12 points.

Play Lille -11.5 (1.89)

Bet at sportsbet

Arsenal – Manchester City

Hi guys,

this is my first bet for BitcoinBettors, so let me introduce myself a little bit.

I´m 33 years old, graduated from Nottingham Trent University I was playing poker with some decent profit in last years. Betting and sports were only for fun.

But these days are gone. I´m not able to play online poker as a fulltime job now in the Czech Republic, so I´m searching for new ways to make some profit from my hobbies.

I´m using some math and statistical models to beat bookies and offer a different point of view. If you´re interested, you can find more info about me on my blog www.frisbald.com.

Working mostly on matches in Italian Serie A, but sometimes provide picks from another league.

About this bet. I don´t have expected goals here, but the qualities and form of these two teams are so different at the moment, I just can´t miss this match. I was writing about the last matchup of on my blog. As written, I see a big difference in players, but the biggest difference in coaches and their approach to the game. I´m Arsenal fan, so this is tough, but AW is out of the line now.

Arsenal is in a bad shape, players are playing without full pace and not fighting. Also creating huge mistakes in a defense. Offensive is also not so dangerous as it should be.

There is probably no need to write about qualities of MC. There are struggling a little bit against teams, which play deep defense game against them. For example, Wigan uses this and played well organized in an FA Cup and defeat Pep guys without allowing them any big chance.

BUT Arsenal is not a team, to play well organized, defense game and wait for a chance. Wenger seems like an old man without much sense for a tactical game these days. Arsenal has a terrible balance against top PL teams this season (1-3-4 against top teams, only victory 2:0 over Tottenham in the derby) AND against MC (no win in last 4  league matches).

I´m expecting MC to secure victory here in lower odds. 1,5-1,6 are proper odds for me on MC today, so I will take a shot and play 1,77 on Cloudbet.

Arsenal – Manchester City

Bet: MC to win

Bookmaker: CloudBet


NBA – New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs

Hi guys!

I did not have any play yesterday, because I simply didn’t find anything good to bet on. Before that, my last play, which was also from the NBA, was a hit.

Today I will have a bet in a game where New Orleans Pelicans visit San Antonio Spurs.

Bookies lines:

New Orleans Pelicans +4.5
San Antonio Spurs -4.5

Totals: 218.5

San Antonio Spurs are 6-4 in their last 10 home games, and in those games, the average total points are 202.6. According to advanced NBA stats, San Antonio are the 6th best home team in a defensive aspect, and this is also supported by the fact, that the Total Lines on San Antonio Spurs are pretty low in average, compared to the rest of NBA. Spurs are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings against the Pelicans, and in their last 10 home head-to-head games, they have never beaten the today’s total line.

If we look at the Pelicans, they are doing very well recently. They are on a 6-game winning streak, and 3 of those games were decided in overtime. Because of that, it looks like in these games there is a lot of points scored. But if we take only the number of points scored in regular time, we see that the average total points scored in their last 10 games is 211.2.

My projected lines:

New Orleans Pelicans +4.5
San Antonio Spurs -4.5

Totals: 210.5

You can find the rest of my projected lines on Steemit. You can follow me on Twitter for more bets.

Play Under 218.5 @ -100 / 2.00

Bet on BitcoinRush