ITA: Sampdoria x Inter Milano

After a successful bet on Sasuollo yesterday, there are more interesting matches in Italy today. For BitcoinBettors, I try to choose bets from my model with the highest adjusted Kelly.

First is Sampdoria win over Inter Milano. Sampdoria has very wide results in the last weeks and produced poor defensive and good offensive numbers. Last week, I believed in Sampdoria against Crotone and it was not a lucky option. But I´m not ready to change it yet and believe in Sampdoria once again. Odds are just too high and Inter is weak in last weeks, especially away from Milano.

So my bet goes on the home side, a higher number of goals is expected in this game as well.

Bet: Sampdoria to win, odds 3,76, adjusted Kelly 2,53%

Bet on Cloud Bet


Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

Udinese x Sassuolo

Following my numbers, Sassuolo should be in a better position here. My odds are almost reverse to bookies, so it seems like a nice value bet.


My expected goals

UDI x SASS 0,97×1,68. My odds on Sass 1,81, bookies 3,61.

According to bookies and my odds, Kelly adjusted stake is 3,36%. There should be also value in betting on Udinese to no score. But the higher value in betting on S. win, so I´m choosing this bet.

Bet on Cloudbet


Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar


Cagliari x Lazio

Lazion should be a bigger favorite here, so nice value in betting on visitors.


Expected goals

1,38 x 3,08


Projected odds

7,11 6,88 1,4

Bookie odds

5,08 3,9 1,7


Lazio win, odds 1,7, kelly adj. 3,06%


Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

Crotone x Sampdoria

Another bet following my model. Seems like nice value bet for Sampdoria. For full numbers, read this article


Expected goals

0,92 x 2,02

Projected odds

6,12 4,82 1,59

Bookies odds

3,21 3,26 2,35


Sampdoria win, odds 2,35, kelly adj. 3,54%


Bet on Cloudbet

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

Sassuolo x Spal

According to my numbers and models, this seems like a nice value bet on Sassuolo. For full numbers for this match and 28. Week of Serie A, please visit my blog.


Expected goals

1,95 x 0,69

My projected odds

1,49 4,88 8,12

Bookies odds

2,06 3,26 4

Bet 1, odds 2,06, kelly adj. 3,61%


Bet on Cloudbet


Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar


Verona x Chievo

Derby is always tough to predict. But this match offers really interesting odds and I can´t leave it behind without bet. Chievo is playing very poorly and I just can´t miss the opportunity to play against in odds over 3.According to my model, Verona should be favorite. According to bookies, it´s an underdog. So clear value.


My numbers:
Expected goals 1,59 – 0,55

My odds

1,59 – 4,08 – 7,96

Bookies odds

3,5 – 3,34 – 2,28

My bet Verona win, adj. Kelly 4,81%

Bet on Cloudbet


More bets for tomorrow will come, if you wanna see all number, please visit my blog 

Dukla Prague x FC Vysocina Jihlava

There were played 3 round since winter break in Czech First League and situation of both teams can´t be much more different. Dukla had big problems even before winter break (especially as a visitors), but now thing seems even worse. 0-1-2 1:4 after 3 games with average opponents and very bad play.

On the other side, Jihlava seems like all ghosts were left behind during winter and new power rise up under new coach Martin Svejdik. 3-0-0 5:1, all with better teams. Even away victory with the best team in Czech Rep, Viktoria Plzen.

For Jihlava, this was first away points this season. Weak away results are probably the reason behind high odds, can´t see any more reasons. And this reason is a little bit off line as well, as there is a new coach and team get new power and self-confidence. Jihlava has some very good attacking players and they were underperforming in last months. I think that they are finally showing their true qualities now.

Must play for me with these odds. Even away victory could be nice (and more risky, of course) bet with offered odds


FC Vysocina Jihlava AH +0,5, odds 1,76

Bet on Cloudbet

Jiri “frisbald” Kaspar, BA (Hons)


AC Milano x Arsenal London


This bet goes without expected goals, as I´m not modeling my numbers for Europe League. But even without expected goals, this seems like a clear value bet. Odds were higher earlier, but anything over 2 is still nice. I think Milano win is somewhere around 60-65% range, so odds should be still lower then now.


The situation of both teams can´t be more different. I was writing about both in last days (here on BB and on my blog as well), so there is so need to repeat it. AC is on fire, Arsenal is struggling, making huge errors in defense, playing without confidence. AW doesn´t seem like a man, who can bring his boys back from this and I think it´s only matter of time before he (finally) leave. But till that day, we can still make some bitcoins.


My bet for this game is really straightforward, AC Milano win, odds 2,06

Bet on Cloudbet



SPAL vs Bologna

According to my numbers, statistics, and model, Bologna should be favored here. Bookies seem it a different way, so  the odds offers the best value from Saturday Serie A matches. And I´m choosing it for today bet.


My expected goals, projected odds, Cloudbet odds and adjusted Kelly for this match:

SPAL               1,43                              3,65                       2,43       -2,34%

DRAW                                                  4,63                       3,17        -1,45%

BOLOGNA    2,01                               1,93                       3,16       +2,95%


Seems like nice value bet on Bologna.

You can find all my expected goals and projected lines for 27. Week on my blog

Bet on Cloudbet

Arsenal – Manchester City

Hi guys,

this is my first bet for BitcoinBettors, so let me introduce myself a little bit.

I´m 33 years old, graduated from Nottingham Trent University I was playing poker with some decent profit in last years. Betting and sports were only for fun.

But these days are gone. I´m not able to play online poker as a fulltime job now in the Czech Republic, so I´m searching for new ways to make some profit from my hobbies.

I´m using some math and statistical models to beat bookies and offer a different point of view. If you´re interested, you can find more info about me on my blog

Working mostly on matches in Italian Serie A, but sometimes provide picks from another league.

About this bet. I don´t have expected goals here, but the qualities and form of these two teams are so different at the moment, I just can´t miss this match. I was writing about the last matchup of on my blog. As written, I see a big difference in players, but the biggest difference in coaches and their approach to the game. I´m Arsenal fan, so this is tough, but AW is out of the line now.

Arsenal is in a bad shape, players are playing without full pace and not fighting. Also creating huge mistakes in a defense. Offensive is also not so dangerous as it should be.

There is probably no need to write about qualities of MC. There are struggling a little bit against teams, which play deep defense game against them. For example, Wigan uses this and played well organized in an FA Cup and defeat Pep guys without allowing them any big chance.

BUT Arsenal is not a team, to play well organized, defense game and wait for a chance. Wenger seems like an old man without much sense for a tactical game these days. Arsenal has a terrible balance against top PL teams this season (1-3-4 against top teams, only victory 2:0 over Tottenham in the derby) AND against MC (no win in last 4  league matches).

I´m expecting MC to secure victory here in lower odds. 1,5-1,6 are proper odds for me on MC today, so I will take a shot and play 1,77 on Cloudbet.

Arsenal – Manchester City

Bet: MC to win

Bookmaker: CloudBet