NHL – Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

Bookmakers odds and my projections:

Most bookmakers opened this game in huge Toronto’s favour, which makes sense, because we have on one side very good team this season and on the other side we have struggling Montreal, that miss couple of important players.

Public will be on Toronto and current odds are more than -200 on them. I made projections for myself and my math model gives better chances to Toronto as well, but nut such a big chance. I give Toronto around 55.33% of chance to win this game and because of that, I have them at -124 / 1.81. On the other side I give Montreal 44.67% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Habs are +124 / 2.24.

Many injuries and open questions on both sides

This game can be very tricky from sports betting perspective and I would be especially careful with Toronto tonight, because if you bet on Maple Leafs, you get much lower price and they are playing without their best player Matthews. They score a lot, but they also receive a lot of goals recently.

Montreal on the other side is also playing without couple of injured players and some of them are questionable today. But they are playing most of the time without their most important players anyway. Montreal lost 6 out of last 7 games. Yes, this is true, but let’s check who they faced: Boston, NJ, Florida, Tampa Bay, CBJ, Dallas and Pittsburgh. All those teams are above league average teams, all those teams are in playoffs and most of them are the best teams in the league. So, they had pretty tough schedule.

This is a derby and Canadiens have great success against Toronto in recent meetings

This is a Canadian derby and Montreal is 7-0 in last 7 meetings in Toronto. They also beat them in last 20 out of 27 games. And I think that this game will be another very excited game, where any team can win. Definitely I think that the odds are little bit too big. Despite Habs are missing couple of players, players usually step up in those kind of games.

Play Montreal Canadiens at 2.88

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NHL – Detroit Red Wings at Los Angeles Kings

Detroit Red Wings lost 7 straight games and today they will face Los Angeles Kings as a huge underdog of +200. But is this really fair price or they are little bit underrated here?

Detroit Red Wings score 2.6 goals per game and they allow 3.1 goals per game. On the road 13-21 to the season and they are 0-6 this month.

Los Angeles on the other side are 38-32 to the season, 2.9 goals per game and 2.5 goals per game allowed.

My projected lines:

I have projected, that Los Angeles Kings still should be favourite here and they will have better chance to win this game. I give them around 55% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Los Angeles Kings are at 1.83 (-120).

Bookmakers on the other side offer us the odds of around +200, which is I think little bit too much. Detroit has very good recent record against Los Angeles Kings. They beat them in 35 out of 52 meetings and they beat them in 15 out of last 22 meetings in Los Angeles. Games between those two teams can be always very interesting and I believe, that this game will be one close game too.

We still don’t have goalies confirmation, but I believe that both teams will start with their first goalies.

Play Detroit Red Wings 2.99 / +199

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NHL – Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

Colorado Avalanche beat Minnesota couple of days ago by 7-1 at home and they will play another game, but in Minnesota. That was pretty big loss for Minnesota, because they are playing very good ice hockey right now, winning 8 out of last 11 games and they also have very good record in recent meetings against Colorado.

But when we talk about Colorado Avalanche, we must understand one thing and this is their home advantage. At home they are very strong team and because of very strong home performances, they are in a wild card spot at this moment. At home, they are 24-9, but when they play on the road, they are just 12-23.

Minnesota on the other side is very strong home team and they will be definitely motivated after humiliating loss by 7-1 in Colorado. But we also must understand that they played 2 road games back then and that one in Colorado was a B2B game. Games without a rest for players are always tougher.

Minnesota score 3.4 goals per game and allow 2.2 goals per game at home. Colorado scores 2.7 goals per game and allows 3.6 goals per game on the road.

According to my projections, I give 67.77% of chance to Minnesota today and my fair odds are at around 1.48. Bookmakers offer us the odds of around 1.60 and I think anything in this range is a value on Minnesota.

Note also, that Minnesota beat Colorado at home in last 10 out of 12 games.

Play Minnesota Wild at 1.60 / -167

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FRA (w): Union Hainaut Basket – Basket Lattes Montpellier

This is the game from French Woman basketball league.

Union Hainat is third worst team in the league and they lost 6 straight games now, including one in Eurocup against Venezia by more than 30 points.

They are not playing well right now and they lose games by average of 10 points per game. They are just 2-5 at home, where they lose games by more than 10 points. The last game they won was against Nantes, which was pretty big surprise win.

They will face Montpellier, who is much better team with the record of 8-8 and +14 point difference. In last 5 games, they have 3 losses, but two of the losses came against 3rd and 2nd best teams in the league. And when we talk about French basketball league, there are three teams that have point difference of more than +100 points.

What is very interesting with Montpellier is that they are one of 4 teams, that have positive road point difference and I think that the line is set little bit too low.

According to my projections, Montpellier could win this game by around 15 points.

Play Montpellier -6.5 (1.78)

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NHL – Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers

Florida Panthers can still reach playoff spot an they have realistic chances and to reach this goal, they need some more wins. Because of that they are very attractive team to bet, especially against Montreal, that has a bad season and are playing without Carey Price. Florida is also on a pretty good streak winning 6 out of last 7 games, so betting on them is most logical thing, isn’t it?

Public will be on Florida tonight, this is for sure, but the odds still dropped on Montreal. I also projected, that this game could be much closer than most people think. I have even projected, that this game could be very close one and if I adjust the numbers because of injuries, I still think that +175 is little bit too much on Florida.

Montreal is playing some good ice hockey against Florida since 2017 as they beat them in last 4 out of 5 games and even that last game was very close one, where Reimer made 38 shots. Panthers has been very good lately at home and this is why we also get little much lower odds on them.

Play Montreal +173 / 2.73

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NHL: Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins

Boston Bruins are playing some really nice ice hockey right now. They are 3-0 in last 3 games and despite they play without very important player Bergeron, they still found the way how to win. Bergeron is a big miss for this team, but they also bring some new guys and the biggest star is definitely Rick Nash, who already scored for a new team.

Boston is a playoff team and this is why they upgraded their team with some new players and gave away couple of other players and “valuable things” (2018 1st round pick for example).

Detroit on the other side are out of playoffs this season and they know it. They lost 6 out of last 8 games and they also have very bad record against Detroit in the past.

Detroit lost 9 straight games in Boston and they also lost 17 out of last 21 meetings.

My betting model gives Detroit around 29.78% of chance to win this game. My fair odds on Detroit are +236. On the other side I have Boston at -236 and because bookmakers give us Boston at around -200, there is a small value.

I will take Boston -1.5, because they are playing very good ice hockey. They are also playing at home, where they have been very good (last 3 months home games: 15-5, ROI:+20%) and they have very good recent record against Detroit too.

Play Boston (1.5) 2.38/+138

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TUR: Büyükçekmece vs Anadolu Efes

This is a game from Turkish basketball league between Büyükçekmece and Anadolu Efes. Home team Büyükçekmece is coming to this game after 2 straight wins and they are just 4 points behind Anadolu and 2 points above relegation zone and second worst placed team Usak.

Anadolu Efes is 6th best team in Turkey with the record of 12-6, but I can not ignore their road record of 3-5 and point difference of -56. They are better team than Büyükçekmece, but they will also play against home team, that has winning record at home (5-3, +91 point difference) and gained some momentum in last two games. They beat 5th best Banvitspor on the road and 9th best team at home combined +34 point difference in those two games.

What I expect from home team is at least to keep this game very close and +5.5 looks little bit too big right now, especially if we know, that Anadolu is not playing that well on the road and they have negative point differntial.

Play Büyükçekmece +5.5 (1.90)

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FRA (w): Tarbes – Nice

In almost every single smaller league we have one very weak team that is beaten badly by other teams in almost every single game. In French woman basketball league this team is Nice.

They lose games by an average of 13 points per game and on the road is is even worse. They lose road games by an average of 17 points.

Today they will face third best home team in the league – Tarbes.

Tarbes is a winning team with the record of 8-7. They lost 2 out of last 3 games, but we also must say, that thet lost both games against higher placed teams, including one game against Bourges, which is the best team in this league with +318 point difference.

Tarbes in on 7th place right now, but this is a dangerous zone, because we have two teams just behind them and this is one of those games, that they must win. Nice is a weak team, that didn’t win any road game this season and I don’t believe that they can beat 3rd best home team in the league.

A lot of bookmakers dropped the odds on Tarbes, but bitcon bookmaker Sportsbet has one of the best odds for European leagues and I think Tarbes -10.5 for the price of 1.86 is a good deal for every bettor.

Play Tarbes -10.5 (1.86)

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FRA (B Basketball): Lille vs Quimper

This is the game from French second basketball league between Lille and Quimper, where one of the best teams in the league will face the second worst team.

When we take a look at the table there is only 3 point difference between first team and sixth team and I think this will be a hard battle until the end. Lille is one of those teams, in fact they are 5th best team right now, but they lost 3 straight games now and this game is one of those, where they will need to step up.

First of all, Lille 13-6 to the season with point difference +77. At home they are 9-1 and 5 out of 6 losses are on the road.

Quimper on the other side is the second worst teams in the league with the record 5-14 and point difference -157. In last 5 games they won 3 out of them and what is even more interesting, they won three straight games.

But if we check who they faced, they played against below average teams in all last 5 games. They will face for the first time one team that is in top 5. Note also, that Quimper has the worst point differential on the road with -113 points.

I think this whole situation needs small correction at this moment. Lille is still much stronger and they need to step up, on the other side bettors who will rely on current Quimper form (3 straight wins) could be fooled, because they didn’t face any of top teams. This will happen today and I expect that Lille wins this by at least 12 points.

Play Lille -11.5 (1.89)

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NHL – New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is on fire. They won 6 out of last 7 games and the only loss came in Florida, where they played a B2B game. But even in that game, they scored a lot, but it was obvious, that this is their last game on the successful road trip.

After that game, they had 2 days rest and now they will face New Jersey at home. Pittsburgh is very dominant team at home holding record of 23-8. They also have great success against New Jersey in the past, winning 14 out of last 17 games against them at home.

New Jersey are improved team since last year, but right now they are struggling with goalies, because their first goalie Schneider is injured. Despite Kinkaid played little bit better in last few games, his SV% on the road is still below 90%. And today he will face one of the best scoring teams in the league.

I have projected that Pittsburgh will have around 65.11% of chance to win this game and I will take a chance with puck line here. In last 7 wins, they beat other teams by at least 2 goals or more.

Play Pittsburgh Penguins (-1.5) 2.49/+149

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