Dota 2 (ESL One Katowice) – Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming

Hi guys.

Welcome to my first recommended bet and analysis. We are currently at ESL One Katowice, at the first Dota 2 tournament taking place in Poland. It is a 16-team Major and this matchup in the
quarterfinals is the second time that these teams will meet at this tournament. They already played in the Group stages, and Vici Gaming won 2-1. Team Liquid managed to scrape one game, it was very close and could have easily gone in Vici Gaming’s favor. Vici Gaming is currently sitting in the 5th place in the Global ranking (made by Gosugamers) and are looking to claim the number one Regional rank spot from Newbee, who underperformed at ESL One Katowice (loss vs Kinguin and a brutally beaten by Evil Geniuses).

Vici Gaming look like a quiet team just minding their own business, staying off the radar. They had a very rough start to the Dota Pro Circuit season, managing to qualify to only two LAN tournaments. However, the breakthrough in their performances came in November last year, when they finished 2nd at Dota PIT Tournament (losing to Team Liquid 3:2 in the grand finals) and qualified for Captains Draft Season 4. They ultimately went on to lose in the finals again, this time against Team Secret, in a thrilling best of 5 series. Those games were ridiculously close, Vici Gaming were leading in both Game 1 and Game 4 by a huge amount but Team Secret managed to turn it around. However, that was the time when Vici Gaming started to get noticed by stronger teams as a potential future threat for LAN tournaments. They still had their ups and downs (losing in Chinese qualifiers to LGD or EHOME, or finishing second at yet another tournament Perfect World Masters) but they became this team with huge potential for future upsets, when playing against the top teams. At ESL One Katowice they already cause two upsets as they beat the favorites OG 1-0 in the first round of Group stages and beat Team Liquid in the second round. They looked really well and strong, their team chemistry was almost flawless. Their captain is Lanm, one of the biggest legends in the Chinese Dota 2 scene. He has been around a long time, he is an experienced player, drafter and captain. The reason why this is important, is that Team Liquid played vs Team Secret today and won 2-1. In both of the games that they won, it was because they outdrafter Team Secret and they easily won both of those games. In the game, where the draft was very close, where none of the teams had a huge advantage, Team Secret outperformed Team Liquid and with better strategy, team fights and game coordination they managed to win. So it is very important for Vici Gaming to get a good draft, otherwise they might have a hard time. I believe this shouldn’t a problem for them, as I said Lanm is a very good captain and drafter, and they already showed they can play against teams that are better than them on paper.

However, let’s not forget Team Liquid. We are talking about the best team in the world right now, and they are holding that position for quite some time (7 months now). The fact is, that Team Secret or even Newbee came very close to claiming that spot, but Team Liquid always managed to perform just enough to hold on to the 1st position in Gosugamers’s team rankings. They are also in the second place when it comes to Dota Pro Circuit points, only behind Team Secret. What I really like about this team, is that they can adjust like no other team. They get beaten by a strategy? You bet Kuroky, Team Liquid’s captain will have something up his sleeve to beat that strategy. They get outperformed by another team? You bet they will find a way to beat that team when they meet next time. Team Liquid won The International 2017 in August. Many people believe, that after winning the tournament of all tournaments, the team will get sloppy, will care less, won’t be motivated that much anymore. Not in this case. Team Liquid is the best team in the Dota 2 scene this season and they always come back stronger. They can even adjust their players, when they need to. They swap positions, heroes, just to fit to the chosen strategy. This is something a lot of teams can not do. Leading up to The International 2017, they had a very good run. They won 3 tournaments in a row, they won TI7 and they also won the first tournament of the new season, beating Mineski in the grand finals of Starladder 3-1. And even though they won the next tournament, their magic slowly went away. They weren’t this unbeatable team anymore, some teams figured them out. Virtus Pro, Team Secret and even Newbee beat them in the coming months. Only 3 weeks ago they lost to Newbee 3-2 in the grand finals of  ESL One Genting. They are 8-3 in this tournament (Vici Gaming is 5-1) and no wonder the bookmakers favor them. I also give them a bigger chance to win this game, but let’s compare my odds and the bookmakers odds.

Team Liquid chance to win according to my numbers – 56% (1.786 odds)
Vici Gaming chance to win according to my numbers – 44%. (2.27 odds)

Bookmaker’s odds on Team Liquid: 1.416 @ Nitrogensports
Bookmaker’s odds on Vici Gaming: 2.814 @ Nitrogensports

Because of that, I see value with Vici Gaming. According to my sheer numbers, they should not be such huge underdogs. If I take into consideration the games that have been played in this tournament, Vici Gaming are looking much better than usually, they are challenging for the grand finals and I can’t see why they shouldn’t be able to beat Team Liquid. They already did it once, they are smart enough to not use the same strategy, they are experienced players led by an experienced Dota 2 veteran and they also have young blood hungry for a LAN victory. Or at least to advance further for more DPC points. Vici Gaming are currently sitting in the 8th place and are threatened to lose the final spot for The International 8 invites (the first 8 teams from the DPC season are automatically invited to TI8) to Fnatic, who advanced to semifinals yesterday. That should be extra motivation for Vici Gaming.

Bet on Vici Gaming @ 2.814 (Nitrogensports)

All our bets are 1 unit. If you find better odds, don’t hesitate to take them. There is value with Vici Gaming and would be a qualified bet for me down to odds of around 2.65.

Thank you for your attention. Best of luck to all of us.
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