Dota 2: OpTic – Vici Gaming

Hi guys!

Yesterday I shared another bet from the esports world. It was a match between Vici Gaming and Newbee, from a Dota 2 tournament taking place in China, called DAC. My team (Vici Gaming) won and the bet was a winning bet. I hope this next bet is going to be a winning bet too. I will look at the match between OpTic Gaming and Vici Gaming.

Bookie’s odds:
OpTic: 1.955
Vici Gaming: 1.824

This is a very hard match to predict. On one side, we have OpTic Gaming, not even the best team from their region. They are struggling to collect DPC points throughout the whole season, but recently they stepped up their game. In my opinion, it is thanks to the role swap between 33 and Zai. They look a lot better and the results speak for themselves. They beat TNC and Newbee on Day 1 and the bookies overreacted a little bit and set low odds on them. We can’t forget, that they are only the 12th team in the global team rankings and have 0 DPC points. That means they haven’t gotten deep into the playoffs at any tournament. Short term results are looking great for them.

But they are going up against Vici Gaming. This is going to be third bet where I back them and I have my reasons. I always say, that they have this experienced captain LanM, and it really matters. Not that PPD on the other side is not a good captain, but his team is young, with 2 inexperienced players (CCnC and 33). Vici Gaming are 9th in the global rankings and they are sitting in the 5th place in the DPC rankings with 2160 points. They are delivering at LAN tournaments. I think, they should be bigger favorites here. What scares me is the fact, that they lost against OG (a team without their best player, using their coach as a standin) but then they beat Newbee.

My projected odds:
OpTic: 4.57
Vici Gaming: 1.28

Follow me on Twitter, where I share more bets and projected lines, including NBA.

Play Vici Gaming @ 1.824

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: Vici Gaming – Newbee

Hi guys!

My bet will be from a Dota 2 tournament called DAC, which is the 2nd biggest tournament of the whole season. It takes place in China and 16 teams are battling for $1.000.000 prize pool.
I am looking at a group stage game between two chinese teams: Vici Gaming and Newbee.

Bookie’s odds:
Vici Gaming: 2.281
Newbee: 1.605

For startes, let me say, that I think the margins are really high in esports. 106.14% on Nitrogensports in this particular game. It is still a young market and we all have to try our best to beat the bookmakers. I hope my analysis and my numbers will help you.

Both teams have their ups and downs and are not dominating the scene. Newbee was the absolut powerhouse of China few months ago and last season too, but they recently went into a minor slump, as they got demolished against EG in a BO3 series 2-0 with both games being shorter than 20 minutes. That is a big deal. In my opinion, short term results matter much more in esports than in other sports. They also lost in the Bucharest Major semifinals against VGJ Thunder 2-0 and they couldn’t beat Fnatic few days ago either, as they exited the Dreamleague tournament after a 2-1 loss in 3rd round of Lower Bracket. Since then, they played 2 qualifiers series in China against VGJ Thunder and EHOME and they won both of them 2-0. However, I am still not convinced by their results at LAN tournaments.

Vici Gaming, that is a roller-coaster of a story. I remember my first bet I shared on this site was when I backed them to win against Team Liquid at ESL One Katowice. I wrote about them, that they had a rough start, but were starting to get louder and louder and more challenging at recent tournaments, they got into 3 grand finals I think but they didn’t win any of them. Well, at Katowice they reached the grand finals once again, but came up short against Virtus Pro, the best team in the world right now and lost 3-1 in a BO5 series. Since then they have been sitting quietly under the radar, underperforming at Bucharest Major where they lost to paiN Gaming, one of the weakest teams there. They are not a bad team at all, they had their time to practice, to come up with new strategies, get rid of stress and get motivated after losing all those grand finals. They have one of the most experienced players as their captain, LanM, who I am sure will try his best and make his team try his best in this tournament.

My odds:
Vici Gaming: 2.000
Newbee: 2.000

Apparently, my numbers say that this game could be a 50:50 game. And I agree. These teams are going through a rough patch currently and they need results. Both teams need the DPC points and the fact that this is a BO1 game, anything can happen. I see some value at Vici Gaming, so I am going to take them. Good luck.

You can follow me on Twitter, where I share all my projected lines. I will also start sharing my NBA projected lines there daily.

Play Vici Gaming @ 2.281

Bet at Nitrogensports

FRA B: Roanne – Poitiers 86

Hi guys.

Today, my bet will be from the second french basketball league, in a match between Chorale Roanne and Poitiers 86.

Bookie’s lines:
Roanne: -13
Poitiers: +13
Totals: 153

Roanne are third in the table with a record of 18-6 and +272 point difference. At home, they score more than the league average by 4.5 points and concede less by 10.

They will face Poitiers 86. They are 13th in the table, with a record of 8-16 and -94 point difference. When they play away, they score fewer than the league average by 0.5 and concede more by 2. They are 3-9 away. This is a match between a strong home team and below average away team.

My projected lines:
Roanne: -19.5
Poitiers: +19.5
Totals: 147.5

 

Play Roanne -13 @ 1.87

Bet at Cloudbet

NHL – Vancouver Canucks at St Louis Blues

Vancouver beat Chicago Blackhawks yesterday and this is a back to back situation for them. They are not playing for anything anymore and they also miss couple of players, including their most important player – Boeser.  I think that today’s game will be much different than that one yesterday and this is because of couple of reasons.

First of all Chicago is having bad season and they are also not playing for anything. They know that the season is over for them and I wouldn’t make a big deal out of that game. St. Louis on the other side is playing for a playoffs. They are basically in a must-win situation now, because they are 3 points behind the last placed wild card team.

They beat Boston in the last game, which was a very nice game for their momentum. And today they must beat much weaker team, who will probably play with their backup goalie (Nilsson instead of Markstrom) and who is struggling with injuries on a B2B.

I give St. Louis advantage both in the net and with skaters. Nilsson, who might start for Vancouver tonight is 0-3 in last 4 starts with SV% of 0.87.

Note also, that Vancouver lost 4 straight games in St Louis. I will take St Louis -1.5 in this game.

Play St Louis Blues -1.5 at 1.95

Bet at bitcoinrush

 

HUN: Szedeak – Kaspovari

Hello, everyone.

Today, my recommended bet will be from the hungarian basketball league in a match between Szedeak and Kaspovari.

Bookie’s lines:
Szedeak: -5.5
Kaspovari: +5.5
Totals: 154.5

Both teams need wins like hell, they are fighting for their spots in the play-offs. Szedeak currently in 10th place, Kaposvari in 9th. However, if we look at their home and away form, it’s a different picture.

Szedeak are 6-3 at home with +84 point difference. At home, they score in average 81.5 points, which is the same as the league average, but they concede fewer by 5.
2 of those 3 home losses came against the teams sitting in the 1st and 3rd place and both of those games they lost only by 1 point. So it is safe to say that Szedeak is a very strong home team. Their record at home against Kaposvari is impeccable. They haven’t lost against Kaspovari at home since 2014 and in all of those games they beat the today’s spread.

We have Kaposvari as the visiting team and they are a weak road team. They are 3-9 away from home with -107 point difference. They are also 1-9 in their last 10 away matches, beating only DEAC (12th) by 5 points. Away from home they score fewer than the league average by 0.5 and concede more by 4.

My projected lines:
Szedeak: -14
Kaspovari: +14
Totals: 158

 

Play Szedeak -5.5 @ 1.86

Bet at Cloudbet

NHL – Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames

Anaheim Ducks are a small underdog against Calgary tonight and they are coming to this game after three straight wins. They gained some nice momentum in last games, when they beat Vancouver, Detroit and New Jersey. Pretty easy schedule, except New Jersey, but still, three wins are good before 4 game road trip.

They will face Calgary Flames, who lost 3 straight games and are coming home from road trip. They lost against San Jose, Vegas and Arizona.

According to my betting model, Anaheim will have better chance to win this game in this situation. I give them 57.45% of chance to win this game and this gives me the odds of 1.74 on them. Because bookmakers offer the odds of 2 or even more, I think there is a value with Anaheim.

Both teams have losing season (Anaheim 36-37, Calgary 35-39), but what is very interesting with Calgary is that they struggle at home this season. They are just 15-21 this season at home and if you would bet on them at home game, you would make a loss of 16.2 units.

Calgary has bad recent record against Anaheim (lost 39 out of 52 last meetings) and they also lost 3 out of 10 home games.

I think that momentum is on Anaheim side today and I also think, that we have better team. Both teams traveled to Calgary (Flames will play first game after a road trip) and Anaheim had 1 day more rest.

Note also, that Calgary might play without Tkachuk and Brodie today. Tkachuk is their second best scorer and Brodie is their furth most important defensive player.

Play Anaheim +102

Bet at Bitcoinrush

ITA: Sampdoria x Inter Milano

After a successful bet on Sasuollo yesterday, there are more interesting matches in Italy today. For BitcoinBettors, I try to choose bets from my model with the highest adjusted Kelly.

First is Sampdoria win over Inter Milano. Sampdoria has very wide results in the last weeks and produced poor defensive and good offensive numbers. Last week, I believed in Sampdoria against Crotone and it was not a lucky option. But I´m not ready to change it yet and believe in Sampdoria once again. Odds are just too high and Inter is weak in last weeks, especially away from Milano.

So my bet goes on the home side, a higher number of goals is expected in this game as well.

Bet: Sampdoria to win, odds 3,76, adjusted Kelly 2,53%

Bet on Cloud Bet

 

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

NHL – Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

Bookmakers odds and my projections:

Most bookmakers opened this game in huge Toronto’s favour, which makes sense, because we have on one side very good team this season and on the other side we have struggling Montreal, that miss couple of important players.

Public will be on Toronto and current odds are more than -200 on them. I made projections for myself and my math model gives better chances to Toronto as well, but nut such a big chance. I give Toronto around 55.33% of chance to win this game and because of that, I have them at -124 / 1.81. On the other side I give Montreal 44.67% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Habs are +124 / 2.24.

Many injuries and open questions on both sides

This game can be very tricky from sports betting perspective and I would be especially careful with Toronto tonight, because if you bet on Maple Leafs, you get much lower price and they are playing without their best player Matthews. They score a lot, but they also receive a lot of goals recently.

Montreal on the other side is also playing without couple of injured players and some of them are questionable today. But they are playing most of the time without their most important players anyway. Montreal lost 6 out of last 7 games. Yes, this is true, but let’s check who they faced: Boston, NJ, Florida, Tampa Bay, CBJ, Dallas and Pittsburgh. All those teams are above league average teams, all those teams are in playoffs and most of them are the best teams in the league. So, they had pretty tough schedule.

This is a derby and Canadiens have great success against Toronto in recent meetings

This is a Canadian derby and Montreal is 7-0 in last 7 meetings in Toronto. They also beat them in last 20 out of 27 games. And I think that this game will be another very excited game, where any team can win. Definitely I think that the odds are little bit too big. Despite Habs are missing couple of players, players usually step up in those kind of games.

Play Montreal Canadiens at 2.88

Bet at Bitcoinrush

Udinese x Sassuolo

Following my numbers, Sassuolo should be in a better position here. My odds are almost reverse to bookies, so it seems like a nice value bet.

 

My expected goals

UDI x SASS 0,97×1,68. My odds on Sass 1,81, bookies 3,61.

According to bookies and my odds, Kelly adjusted stake is 3,36%. There should be also value in betting on Udinese to no score. But the higher value in betting on S. win, so I´m choosing this bet.

Bet on Cloudbet

 

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

 

BEL: Oostende – Mons Hainaut

Hey guys!

Today, my bet will be from the Belgian basketball league in a match between Oostende and Mons Hainaut.

Bookie’s lines:
Oostende: -14.5
Mons Hainaut: +14.5
Totals: 153.5

Oostende are comfortably sitting in the 1st place in the league with a 20-0 record and +419 point difference. They are on a different level compared to the rest of the league, especially from a defensive point of view. At home, they concede fewer points that the league average by 17.5 and score more by 4.5. When they play at home, they beat their opponents in average by 26.5 points. In their last home game against Mons Hainaut they won 58 points, in December last year.

Monst Hainaut on the other side has mixed results. They can ofter turn up and win against good teams. They are sitting in the 5th place with the record 11-9 and -37 point difference. If we look at their away games, they are 4-6 and -73 point difference. Away from home, they score fewer than the league average by 0.5 and concede more by 2.5.

My projected lines:
Oostende: -29.5
Mons Hainaut: +29.5
Totals: 147.5

Play Oostende -14.5 @ 1.87

Bet at Cloudbet