I have a recommended bet today in a game where New York Knicks travel to LA to pay a visit to Clippers.
New York Knicks: +9
Los Angeles Clippers: -9
Clippers are 16-13 at home, while Knicks are one of the weakest road teams in the league (8-24). About the Knicks, on their road games, almost 75% of their field goal attempts are 2-point attempts and they are averaging a 52% conversion rate from those attempts. I also project around 6 succesful blocks on the Knicks side, which is by 20% more, than the league average of blocks per game (around 5).
Clippers score in average around 108 points at home, while Knicks’ average away points is around 101. In their head-to-head games, these two teams beat the today’s total line only twice since 2010. Clippers have high scoring away games in the last couple of weeks, but at home, they beat the today’s total line only twice in their last 10 games. Clipper’s average game totals in their last 10 home games is 215.1 points. New York Knicks’ last 10 away games averaged 213.5 points. Since 1999, when these two teams met in Los Angeles, they beat the today’s total line only twice, one of those occasions was after an overtime win of Clippers (128-124) in February 2009.
It might look as a risky bet, but the truth is, betting is always risky. What also supports my pick today is my NBA model, where I use advanced NBA stats to project my own lines, which then I compare with bookmaker’s lines to see if there is any considerable difference. My lines for this game:
New York Knicks: +7
Los Angeles Clippers: -7
Play Under 225.5 @ -105 / 1.95
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