SPAL vs Bologna

According to my numbers, statistics, and model, Bologna should be favored here. Bookies seem it a different way, so  the odds offers the best value from Saturday Serie A matches. And I´m choosing it for today bet.


My expected goals, projected odds, Cloudbet odds and adjusted Kelly for this match:

SPAL               1,43                              3,65                       2,43       -2,34%

DRAW                                                  4,63                       3,17        -1,45%

BOLOGNA    2,01                               1,93                       3,16       +2,95%


Seems like nice value bet on Bologna.

You can find all my expected goals and projected lines for 27. Week on my blog

Bet on Cloudbet

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