According to my numbers, statistics, and model, Bologna should be favored here. Bookies seem it a different way, so the odds offers the best value from Saturday Serie A matches. And I´m choosing it for today bet.
My expected goals, projected odds, Cloudbet odds and adjusted Kelly for this match:
SPAL 1,43 3,65 2,43 -2,34%
DRAW 4,63 3,17 -1,45%
BOLOGNA 2,01 1,93 3,16 +2,95%
Seems like nice value bet on Bologna.
You can find all my expected goals and projected lines for 27. Week on my blog www.frisbald.com
Bet on Cloudbet