LTU: Neptunas – Nevezis

Hello, everyone!

After yesterday’s win in Slovakian league I am here again with a smaller league basketball play. We look at Lithuanian league to find a value play in a match between Neptunas Klaipeda and BC Nevezis.

Bookie’s lines:
Neptunas Klaipeda: -9.5
BC Nevezis: +9.5
Totals: 159.5

Neptunas are the joint best home team in the league so far this season, with the record of 10-2 and +136 point difference. In average they score 87.75 points at home, which is also the 2nd best average in the league (only behind Vilnius). In average, they win their home games by 11 points. They are on a 3 game long losing streak at home (including 2 cup games) so they will definitely have extra motivation to get back to the winning way in front of their home crowd. When one of the weakest away teams visit, it is the perfect opportunity.

Nevezis are 3-7 in their last 10 away games. In average, they concede 85.75 points when playing away from home. They lost their last 3 away matches in the league by 10, 29 and 26 points respectively. They are not on the best streak away from home, and they are visiting the 2nd best home team in the league, as I mentioned.

These two teams already met this season in a home game for BC Nevezis. Nevezis lost at home 74-85. Last time Neptunas lost to Nevezis at home in the league was in 2012. Since then they are on a 9 game long winning streak against them. In these games they won by 24.2 points in average, and only twice they did not beat the spread which the bookies set for today.

My projected lines:
Neptunas Klaipeda: -17.5
BC Nevezis: +17.5
Totals: 165.5

Check out my Steemit page, where I share my daily NBA projections. Also, you can follow me on Twitter, where I share more picks from different sports too!

Play Neptunas -9.5 @ 1.860

Bet at Cloudbet

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