This bet goes without expected goals, as I´m not modeling my numbers for Europe League. But even without expected goals, this seems like a clear value bet. Odds were higher earlier, but anything over 2 is still nice. I think Milano win is somewhere around 60-65% range, so odds should be still lower then now.
The situation of both teams can´t be more different. I was writing about both in last days (here on BB and on my blog as well), so there is so need to repeat it. AC is on fire, Arsenal is struggling, making huge errors in defense, playing without confidence. AW doesn´t seem like a man, who can bring his boys back from this and I think it´s only matter of time before he (finally) leave. But till that day, we can still make some bitcoins.
My bet for this game is really straightforward, AC Milano win, odds 2,06