Bookmakers odds and my projections:
Most bookmakers opened this game in huge Toronto’s favour, which makes sense, because we have on one side very good team this season and on the other side we have struggling Montreal, that miss couple of important players.
Public will be on Toronto and current odds are more than -200 on them. I made projections for myself and my math model gives better chances to Toronto as well, but nut such a big chance. I give Toronto around 55.33% of chance to win this game and because of that, I have them at -124 / 1.81. On the other side I give Montreal 44.67% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Habs are +124 / 2.24.
Many injuries and open questions on both sides
This game can be very tricky from sports betting perspective and I would be especially careful with Toronto tonight, because if you bet on Maple Leafs, you get much lower price and they are playing without their best player Matthews. They score a lot, but they also receive a lot of goals recently.
Montreal on the other side is also playing without couple of injured players and some of them are questionable today. But they are playing most of the time without their most important players anyway. Montreal lost 6 out of last 7 games. Yes, this is true, but let’s check who they faced: Boston, NJ, Florida, Tampa Bay, CBJ, Dallas and Pittsburgh. All those teams are above league average teams, all those teams are in playoffs and most of them are the best teams in the league. So, they had pretty tough schedule.
This is a derby and Canadiens have great success against Toronto in recent meetings
This is a Canadian derby and Montreal is 7-0 in last 7 meetings in Toronto. They also beat them in last 20 out of 27 games. And I think that this game will be another very excited game, where any team can win. Definitely I think that the odds are little bit too big. Despite Habs are missing couple of players, players usually step up in those kind of games.