Anaheim Ducks are a small underdog against Calgary tonight and they are coming to this game after three straight wins. They gained some nice momentum in last games, when they beat Vancouver, Detroit and New Jersey. Pretty easy schedule, except New Jersey, but still, three wins are good before 4 game road trip.
They will face Calgary Flames, who lost 3 straight games and are coming home from road trip. They lost against San Jose, Vegas and Arizona.
According to my betting model, Anaheim will have better chance to win this game in this situation. I give them 57.45% of chance to win this game and this gives me the odds of 1.74 on them. Because bookmakers offer the odds of 2 or even more, I think there is a value with Anaheim.
Both teams have losing season (Anaheim 36-37, Calgary 35-39), but what is very interesting with Calgary is that they struggle at home this season. They are just 15-21 this season at home and if you would bet on them at home game, you would make a loss of 16.2 units.
Calgary has bad recent record against Anaheim (lost 39 out of 52 last meetings) and they also lost 3 out of 10 home games.
I think that momentum is on Anaheim side today and I also think, that we have better team. Both teams traveled to Calgary (Flames will play first game after a road trip) and Anaheim had 1 day more rest.
Note also, that Calgary might play without Tkachuk and Brodie today. Tkachuk is their second best scorer and Brodie is their furth most important defensive player.