Dota 2: Vici Gaming – Newbee

Hi guys!

My bet will be from a Dota 2 tournament called DAC, which is the 2nd biggest tournament of the whole season. It takes place in China and 16 teams are battling for $1.000.000 prize pool.
I am looking at a group stage game between two chinese teams: Vici Gaming and Newbee.

Bookie’s odds:
Vici Gaming: 2.281
Newbee: 1.605

For startes, let me say, that I think the margins are really high in esports. 106.14% on Nitrogensports in this particular game. It is still a young market and we all have to try our best to beat the bookmakers. I hope my analysis and my numbers will help you.

Both teams have their ups and downs and are not dominating the scene. Newbee was the absolut powerhouse of China few months ago and last season too, but they recently went into a minor slump, as they got demolished against EG in a BO3 series 2-0 with both games being shorter than 20 minutes. That is a big deal. In my opinion, short term results matter much more in esports than in other sports. They also lost in the Bucharest Major semifinals against VGJ Thunder 2-0 and they couldn’t beat Fnatic few days ago either, as they exited the Dreamleague tournament after a 2-1 loss in 3rd round of Lower Bracket. Since then, they played 2 qualifiers series in China against VGJ Thunder and EHOME and they won both of them 2-0. However, I am still not convinced by their results at LAN tournaments.

Vici Gaming, that is a roller-coaster of a story. I remember my first bet I shared on this site was when I backed them to win against Team Liquid at ESL One Katowice. I wrote about them, that they had a rough start, but were starting to get louder and louder and more challenging at recent tournaments, they got into 3 grand finals I think but they didn’t win any of them. Well, at Katowice they reached the grand finals once again, but came up short against Virtus Pro, the best team in the world right now and lost 3-1 in a BO5 series. Since then they have been sitting quietly under the radar, underperforming at Bucharest Major where they lost to paiN Gaming, one of the weakest teams there. They are not a bad team at all, they had their time to practice, to come up with new strategies, get rid of stress and get motivated after losing all those grand finals. They have one of the most experienced players as their captain, LanM, who I am sure will try his best and make his team try his best in this tournament.

My odds:
Vici Gaming: 2.000
Newbee: 2.000

Apparently, my numbers say that this game could be a 50:50 game. And I agree. These teams are going through a rough patch currently and they need results. Both teams need the DPC points and the fact that this is a BO1 game, anything can happen. I see some value at Vici Gaming, so I am going to take them. Good luck.

You can follow me on Twitter, where I share all my projected lines. I will also start sharing my NBA projected lines there daily.

Play Vici Gaming @ 2.281

Bet at Nitrogensports

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