EUR: Unicaja Malaga – Panathinaikos

Hey guys!

Today I will look at the European basketball league (Euroleague) to find a value bet. The bet I chose is from the match between Unicaja Málaga (11th) and Panathinaikos (7th).

Bookie’s lines:
Malaga: +2.5
Panathinaikos: -2.5
Totals: 155.5

Unicaja Malaga are 7-5 at home with +38 point difference. They score a little bit fewer points at home than the league average, but also concede fewer points by the same margin. They are much stronger at home than on the road, which is nothing unusual. When they played at home, they beat the likes of Maccabi Tel Aviv, Real Madrid, Olimpia Milan and Khimki.

On the other side, we have Panathinaikos. They are one of the worst road teams in the league. Their record is 3-9 with -101 point difference. On top of that, they are on a 5 game losing streak away from home. They score fewer points than the league average away from home by 9, and concede fewer by 3. Another information, which I want to include in this write-up / analysis is, that one of my friends, who is a big fan of Euroleague told me recently, that Panathinaikos are in a trouble. They have some internal issues, their owner is considering leaving the league. Sounds like a chaos to me. This factor is not included in my projected lines, consider it as a little side information.

My projected lines:
Malaga: -7.5
Panathinaikos: 7.5
Totals: 146.5

Play Unicaja Malaga +2.5 @ 1.986

Bet at Nitrogensports

 

NHL – Detroit Red Wings at Los Angeles Kings

Detroit Red Wings lost 7 straight games and today they will face Los Angeles Kings as a huge underdog of +200. But is this really fair price or they are little bit underrated here?

Detroit Red Wings score 2.6 goals per game and they allow 3.1 goals per game. On the road 13-21 to the season and they are 0-6 this month.

Los Angeles on the other side are 38-32 to the season, 2.9 goals per game and 2.5 goals per game allowed.

My projected lines:

I have projected, that Los Angeles Kings still should be favourite here and they will have better chance to win this game. I give them around 55% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Los Angeles Kings are at 1.83 (-120).

Bookmakers on the other side offer us the odds of around +200, which is I think little bit too much. Detroit has very good recent record against Los Angeles Kings. They beat them in 35 out of 52 meetings and they beat them in 15 out of last 22 meetings in Los Angeles. Games between those two teams can be always very interesting and I believe, that this game will be one close game too.

We still don’t have goalies confirmation, but I believe that both teams will start with their first goalies.

Play Detroit Red Wings 2.99 / +199

Bet at Bitcoinrush

POL: Krosno – Starogard Gdanski

Hey guys!

Today, I decided to look at the polish basketball league to make a bet in a match between Krosno and Starogard Gdanski.

Bookie’s lines:
Krosno: +2.5
Starogard Gdanski: -2.5
Totals: 160.5

Firstly, let me say, that there is a team in the polish league that has been disqualified from the league, so all their matches are 0-20 losses. For that reason, I will completely ignore this team in this league.

Krosno are the 2nd worst home team in the league, with a record of 4-6 and -80 point difference. At home, they score fewer points than the league average by 5.5. They concede more than the league average by 6 points. They are 1-4 in their last 5 matches overall, so they are not doing very well.

On the other side, we have Starogard Gdanski. They are 1-4 in their last 5 away games, but all of those games were against an opponent from the upper side of the league table. They are 5-5 in away games, with +21 point difference. They are looking forward to the remaining away games against easy opponents, where they need to win, because they are fighting for the spot in the play-offs. In their home games, they score more than the league average by 2 points and concede fewer by 3.

My projected lines:
Krosno: 13.5
Starogard Gdanski: -13.5
Totals: 163.5

Play Starogard Gdanski -2.5 @ 1.890

Bet at Cloudbet

 

NHL – Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

Colorado Avalanche beat Minnesota couple of days ago by 7-1 at home and they will play another game, but in Minnesota. That was pretty big loss for Minnesota, because they are playing very good ice hockey right now, winning 8 out of last 11 games and they also have very good record in recent meetings against Colorado.

But when we talk about Colorado Avalanche, we must understand one thing and this is their home advantage. At home they are very strong team and because of very strong home performances, they are in a wild card spot at this moment. At home, they are 24-9, but when they play on the road, they are just 12-23.

Minnesota on the other side is very strong home team and they will be definitely motivated after humiliating loss by 7-1 in Colorado. But we also must understand that they played 2 road games back then and that one in Colorado was a B2B game. Games without a rest for players are always tougher.

Minnesota score 3.4 goals per game and allow 2.2 goals per game at home. Colorado scores 2.7 goals per game and allows 3.6 goals per game on the road.

According to my projections, I give 67.77% of chance to Minnesota today and my fair odds are at around 1.48. Bookmakers offer us the odds of around 1.60 and I think anything in this range is a value on Minnesota.

Note also, that Minnesota beat Colorado at home in last 10 out of 12 games.

Play Minnesota Wild at 1.60 / -167

Bet at Bitcoinrush

ISR: Maccabi Ashdod – Ironi Nahariya

Hello, everyone!

My recommended bet today will be from the Israeli basketball league. It’s a match between Maccabi Ashdod (6th) and Ironi Nahariya (11th).

Bookie’s lines:
Maccabi Ashdod: -3.5
Ironi Nahariya: +3.5
Totals: 165.5

Maccabi Ashdod are on a 6-game long winning streak at home, and they are trying to secure a spot into the play-offs. In average, they score 5 more points at home than the league average and concede fewer by 1. In their last 5 home games, they beat their opponent by 13 points in average.

Ironi Nahariya are in a really bad place now. They lost their last 9 away games. They are the worst away team in the league with the record of 1-8 and -59 point difference. In average, they score fewer points in their away games by 3.5 and concede more by 2.5 points. In their last 5 away games, they lost by 9.5 points in average.

The only thing going for Ironi Nahariya is, that they haven’t lost to Maccabi Ashdod since 2016, and they haven’t lost on their home ground ever.

My projected lines:
Maccabi Ashdod: -13
Ironi Nahariya: +13
Totals: 167

Play Maccabi Ashdod -4 @ 1.902

Bet at Nitrogensports

Cagliari x Lazio

Lazion should be a bigger favorite here, so nice value in betting on visitors.

 

Expected goals

1,38 x 3,08

 

Projected odds

7,11 6,88 1,4

Bookie odds

5,08 3,9 1,7

 

Lazio win, odds 1,7, kelly adj. 3,06%

 

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

Crotone x Sampdoria

Another bet following my model. Seems like nice value bet for Sampdoria. For full numbers, read this article

 

Expected goals

0,92 x 2,02

Projected odds

6,12 4,82 1,59

Bookies odds

3,21 3,26 2,35

 

Sampdoria win, odds 2,35, kelly adj. 3,54%

 

Bet on Cloudbet

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

Sassuolo x Spal

According to my numbers and models, this seems like a nice value bet on Sassuolo. For full numbers for this match and 28. Week of Serie A, please visit my blog.

 

Expected goals

1,95 x 0,69

My projected odds

1,49 4,88 8,12

Bookies odds

2,06 3,26 4

Bet 1, odds 2,06, kelly adj. 3,61%

 

Bet on Cloudbet

 

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

 

HUN: MAFC – KTE-Duna

Greetings and salutations!

My recommended bet today will be from the hungarian basketball league. We will look at the match between MAFC Budapest and Kecskemeti KTE-Duna.

Bookie’s lines:
MAFC: +6.5
KTE-Duna: -6.5
Totals: 153.5

MAFC are 4-17 (-198 point difference) and are sitting at the bottom of the table. They are the worst team in the league from every aspect. At home, they score fewer points than the league average by 8.5 points. They also concede more than the league average, by 3 points. They are 0-5 in their last five home games, losing in average by 15.6 points. They also lost their last 3 home games against KTE-Duna in the league in the past (with a considerable point difference too!).

On the other hand we have KTE-Duna. They are fighting for a place in the Winner’s stage playoff rounds. They are the second best away team in the league, with a record of 7-4 and +36 point difference. They are 4-1 in their last 5 away games, losing only to Szedeak 70-62. In comparison to the league average in the games away from home, they score more by 3 and concede fewer by 5.

My projected lines:
MAFC: +14
KTE-Duna: -14
Totals: 150

Follow me on Twitter for more free picks. You can also check out my Steemit page, where I share daily NBA projected lines (and doing really well, recently, but I don’t want to jynx that!)

Play KTE-Duna -6.5 @ 1.860

Bet at Cloudbet

Verona x Chievo

Derby is always tough to predict. But this match offers really interesting odds and I can´t leave it behind without bet. Chievo is playing very poorly and I just can´t miss the opportunity to play against in odds over 3.According to my model, Verona should be favorite. According to bookies, it´s an underdog. So clear value.

 

My numbers:
Expected goals 1,59 – 0,55

My odds

1,59 – 4,08 – 7,96

Bookies odds

3,5 – 3,34 – 2,28

My bet Verona win, adj. Kelly 4,81%

Bet on Cloudbet

 

More bets for tomorrow will come, if you wanna see all number, please visit my blog