FRA (w): Union Hainaut Basket – Basket Lattes Montpellier

This is the game from French Woman basketball league.

Union Hainat is third worst team in the league and they lost 6 straight games now, including one in Eurocup against Venezia by more than 30 points.

They are not playing well right now and they lose games by average of 10 points per game. They are just 2-5 at home, where they lose games by more than 10 points. The last game they won was against Nantes, which was pretty big surprise win.

They will face Montpellier, who is much better team with the record of 8-8 and +14 point difference. In last 5 games, they have 3 losses, but two of the losses came against 3rd and 2nd best teams in the league. And when we talk about French basketball league, there are three teams that have point difference of more than +100 points.

What is very interesting with Montpellier is that they are one of 4 teams, that have positive road point difference and I think that the line is set little bit too low.

According to my projections, Montpellier could win this game by around 15 points.

Play Montpellier -6.5 (1.78)

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Dukla Prague x FC Vysocina Jihlava

There were played 3 round since winter break in Czech First League and situation of both teams can´t be much more different. Dukla had big problems even before winter break (especially as a visitors), but now thing seems even worse. 0-1-2 1:4 after 3 games with average opponents and very bad play.

On the other side, Jihlava seems like all ghosts were left behind during winter and new power rise up under new coach Martin Svejdik. 3-0-0 5:1, all with better teams. Even away victory with the best team in Czech Rep, Viktoria Plzen.

For Jihlava, this was first away points this season. Weak away results are probably the reason behind high odds, can´t see any more reasons. And this reason is a little bit off line as well, as there is a new coach and team get new power and self-confidence. Jihlava has some very good attacking players and they were underperforming in last months. I think that they are finally showing their true qualities now.

Must play for me with these odds. Even away victory could be nice (and more risky, of course) bet with offered odds

 

FC Vysocina Jihlava AH +0,5, odds 1,76

Bet on Cloudbet

Jiri “frisbald” Kaspar, BA (Hons)

www.frisbald.com

 

FRA B: Rouen – Nancy

Hello, everyone!

My recommended bet today will be from the french basketball league – LNB Pro B. It is a match between Rouen and Nancy.

Bookie’s projected lines:
Rouen: +1.5
Nancy: -1.5
Totals: 150.5

Rouen, sitting at the 9th, are hosting Nancy (7th) in today’s game. Rouen are on the edge of qualifying for the play-offs, but there is still some league rounds to be played until it is decided who makes the play-offs and who does not. Rouen are also the 15th team when it comes to matches played at home (4th worst) with the record of 4-6 and point difference of -32. In average they let their opponents score 77.8 points, which is worse than the league average by 3.5 points. Both teams are on a losing streak. Rouen haven’t won in their last 4 games (average loss by 11.5 points) and Nancy lost their last 3 games too.

If we look at Nancy, they are an above average away team. Even though their away record is 5-5 with +29 point difference, they sit at the 7th place when it comes to teams playing away from home.
As I mentioned, they are on a 3-game long losing streak, but they lost all those games by a just a few points (3, 3 and 4). They have a chance to make a turnaround here and get back on winning waves. When Nancy play away from home, they score a little bit more than the league average (by 1.5 points) but they concede 4.5 fewer points than the league average.

My projected lines:
Rouen: +9
Nancy: -9
Totals: 149.5

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Play Nancy -1.5 @ 1.890

Bet on Cloudbet

 

NHL – Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers

Florida Panthers can still reach playoff spot an they have realistic chances and to reach this goal, they need some more wins. Because of that they are very attractive team to bet, especially against Montreal, that has a bad season and are playing without Carey Price. Florida is also on a pretty good streak winning 6 out of last 7 games, so betting on them is most logical thing, isn’t it?

Public will be on Florida tonight, this is for sure, but the odds still dropped on Montreal. I also projected, that this game could be much closer than most people think. I have even projected, that this game could be very close one and if I adjust the numbers because of injuries, I still think that +175 is little bit too much on Florida.

Montreal is playing some good ice hockey against Florida since 2017 as they beat them in last 4 out of 5 games and even that last game was very close one, where Reimer made 38 shots. Panthers has been very good lately at home and this is why we also get little much lower odds on them.

Play Montreal +173 / 2.73

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AC Milano x Arsenal London

 

This bet goes without expected goals, as I´m not modeling my numbers for Europe League. But even without expected goals, this seems like a clear value bet. Odds were higher earlier, but anything over 2 is still nice. I think Milano win is somewhere around 60-65% range, so odds should be still lower then now.

 

The situation of both teams can´t be more different. I was writing about both in last days (here on BB and on my blog as well), so there is so need to repeat it. AC is on fire, Arsenal is struggling, making huge errors in defense, playing without confidence. AW doesn´t seem like a man, who can bring his boys back from this and I think it´s only matter of time before he (finally) leave. But till that day, we can still make some bitcoins.

 

My bet for this game is really straightforward, AC Milano win, odds 2,06

Bet on Cloudbet

 

 

SVK: Kosice – Inter Bratislava

Hello, everyone!

For today’s bet I chose to look at the Slovakian basketball league. I will recommend a bet in a match between Košice and Inter Bratislava.

Bookie’s lines:
Kosice: -2.5
Inter Bratislava: +2.5
Totals: 166.5

There are the two best teams in the league. Inter Bratislava sitting in the 1st place with 29-4 and +572 point difference. Košice are in the 2nd place with 24-9 and +440 point difference. Košice are the highest scoring home team in the league, averaging 101 points scored at home. In average they let their opponents score 81.5 points. They score more than the league average by 12.5 points. They are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, losing to Levice and Prievidza in high scoring games (109-115 against Levice and 95-99 against Prievidza). These two teams are sitting in the 3rd and 4th place respectively. That is important because it shows, that when Košice are playing against strong teams at home, they tend to score a lot and also let the opponents score a lot. In these last 10 home games for Kosice, only one finished with fewer points scored than the today’s Total line is (83-79 vs BK Svit).

Košice are going up agaisnt Inter Bratislava, last season’s champions. In average, Inter Bratislava scores 93.5 points in a game away from home and they let their opponents score 78.5 points. They are 9-1 in their last 10 away games, losing against Košice (92-82) in December last year. In these last 10 away games, only one ended with fewer points that the today’s line is (60-92 vs Handlova).

My projected lines:
Kosice: +0.5
Inter Bratislava: -0.5
Totals: 183

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Play Over 166.5 @ 1.850

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NHL: Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins

Boston Bruins are playing some really nice ice hockey right now. They are 3-0 in last 3 games and despite they play without very important player Bergeron, they still found the way how to win. Bergeron is a big miss for this team, but they also bring some new guys and the biggest star is definitely Rick Nash, who already scored for a new team.

Boston is a playoff team and this is why they upgraded their team with some new players and gave away couple of other players and “valuable things” (2018 1st round pick for example).

Detroit on the other side are out of playoffs this season and they know it. They lost 6 out of last 8 games and they also have very bad record against Detroit in the past.

Detroit lost 9 straight games in Boston and they also lost 17 out of last 21 meetings.

My betting model gives Detroit around 29.78% of chance to win this game. My fair odds on Detroit are +236. On the other side I have Boston at -236 and because bookmakers give us Boston at around -200, there is a small value.

I will take Boston -1.5, because they are playing very good ice hockey. They are also playing at home, where they have been very good (last 3 months home games: 15-5, ROI:+20%) and they have very good recent record against Detroit too.

Play Boston (1.5) 2.38/+138

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TUR: Büyükçekmece vs Anadolu Efes

This is a game from Turkish basketball league between Büyükçekmece and Anadolu Efes. Home team Büyükçekmece is coming to this game after 2 straight wins and they are just 4 points behind Anadolu and 2 points above relegation zone and second worst placed team Usak.

Anadolu Efes is 6th best team in Turkey with the record of 12-6, but I can not ignore their road record of 3-5 and point difference of -56. They are better team than Büyükçekmece, but they will also play against home team, that has winning record at home (5-3, +91 point difference) and gained some momentum in last two games. They beat 5th best Banvitspor on the road and 9th best team at home combined +34 point difference in those two games.

What I expect from home team is at least to keep this game very close and +5.5 looks little bit too big right now, especially if we know, that Anadolu is not playing that well on the road and they have negative point differntial.

Play Büyükçekmece +5.5 (1.90)

Bet at Cloudbet

LTU: Neptunas – Nevezis

Hello, everyone!

After yesterday’s win in Slovakian league I am here again with a smaller league basketball play. We look at Lithuanian league to find a value play in a match between Neptunas Klaipeda and BC Nevezis.

Bookie’s lines:
Neptunas Klaipeda: -9.5
BC Nevezis: +9.5
Totals: 159.5

Neptunas are the joint best home team in the league so far this season, with the record of 10-2 and +136 point difference. In average they score 87.75 points at home, which is also the 2nd best average in the league (only behind Vilnius). In average, they win their home games by 11 points. They are on a 3 game long losing streak at home (including 2 cup games) so they will definitely have extra motivation to get back to the winning way in front of their home crowd. When one of the weakest away teams visit, it is the perfect opportunity.

Nevezis are 3-7 in their last 10 away games. In average, they concede 85.75 points when playing away from home. They lost their last 3 away matches in the league by 10, 29 and 26 points respectively. They are not on the best streak away from home, and they are visiting the 2nd best home team in the league, as I mentioned.

These two teams already met this season in a home game for BC Nevezis. Nevezis lost at home 74-85. Last time Neptunas lost to Nevezis at home in the league was in 2012. Since then they are on a 9 game long winning streak against them. In these games they won by 24.2 points in average, and only twice they did not beat the spread which the bookies set for today.

My projected lines:
Neptunas Klaipeda: -17.5
BC Nevezis: +17.5
Totals: 165.5

Check out my Steemit page, where I share my daily NBA projections. Also, you can follow me on Twitter, where I share more picks from different sports too!

Play Neptunas -9.5 @ 1.860

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SVK: Iskra Svit – MBK Handlova

Hello, everyone!

I decided to make a bet in my domestic basketball league. We look at slovakian basketball league today to find a value play. I picked a match between BK Iskra Svit and MBK Handlová.

Bookie’s lines:
BK Iskra Svit: -14.5
MBK Handlová: +14.5
Totals: 175.5

Iskra Svit are 11-6 at home, with +149 points. Generally, they lose at home to stronger teams (Levice, Inter Bratislava, Prievidza) but they are showing a strong home advantage against the rest of the league. On the other side, we have MBK Handlová, who are maintaining a losing streak away from home. They haven’t win in their last 8 away games, losing in average by 30 points. That however inclued their last away game, which they lost to Prievidza by 116 points. Yes, 116 points. 146-30. Unreal. I think their main objective today will be not to repeat this kind of loss again. They are 2-14 away, with -386 points.

My projected lines:
BK Iskra Svit: -27.5
MBK Handlová: +27.5
Totals: 181.5

You can check my Steemit page, where I post my projected NBA odds every day. Also, you can follow me on Twitter for more shared bets.

Play BK Iskra Svit -14.5 @ 1.840

Bet at Cloudbet