SPAL vs Bologna

According to my numbers, statistics, and model, Bologna should be favored here. Bookies seem it a different way, so  the odds offers the best value from Saturday Serie A matches. And I´m choosing it for today bet.

 

My expected goals, projected odds, Cloudbet odds and adjusted Kelly for this match:

SPAL               1,43                              3,65                       2,43       -2,34%

DRAW                                                  4,63                       3,17        -1,45%

BOLOGNA    2,01                               1,93                       3,16       +2,95%

 

Seems like nice value bet on Bologna.

You can find all my expected goals and projected lines for 27. Week on my blog www.frisbald.com

Bet on Cloudbet

FRA (w): Tarbes – Nice

In almost every single smaller league we have one very weak team that is beaten badly by other teams in almost every single game. In French woman basketball league this team is Nice.

They lose games by an average of 13 points per game and on the road is is even worse. They lose road games by an average of 17 points.

Today they will face third best home team in the league – Tarbes.

Tarbes is a winning team with the record of 8-7. They lost 2 out of last 3 games, but we also must say, that thet lost both games against higher placed teams, including one game against Bourges, which is the best team in this league with +318 point difference.

Tarbes in on 7th place right now, but this is a dangerous zone, because we have two teams just behind them and this is one of those games, that they must win. Nice is a weak team, that didn’t win any road game this season and I don’t believe that they can beat 3rd best home team in the league.

A lot of bookmakers dropped the odds on Tarbes, but bitcon bookmaker Sportsbet has one of the best odds for European leagues and I think Tarbes -10.5 for the price of 1.86 is a good deal for every bettor.

Play Tarbes -10.5 (1.86)

Bet at Sportsbet

NBA – New York Knicks at Los Angeles Clippers

Hi guys!

I have a recommended bet today in a game where New York Knicks travel to LA to pay a visit to Clippers.

Bookie’s lines:

New York Knicks: +9
Los Angeles Clippers: -9

Totals: 225.5

Clippers are 16-13 at home, while Knicks are one of the weakest road teams in the league (8-24). About the Knicks, on their road games, almost 75% of their field goal attempts are 2-point attempts and they are averaging a 52% conversion rate from those attempts. I also project around 6 succesful blocks on the Knicks side, which is by 20% more, than the league average of blocks per game (around 5).

Clippers score in average around 108 points at home, while Knicks’ average away points is around 101. In their head-to-head games, these two teams beat the today’s total line only twice since 2010. Clippers have high scoring away games in the last couple of weeks, but at home, they beat the today’s total line only twice in their last 10 games. Clipper’s average game totals in their last 10 home games is 215.1 points. New York Knicks’ last 10 away games averaged 213.5 points. Since 1999, when these two teams met in Los Angeles, they beat the today’s total line only twice, one of those occasions was after an overtime win of Clippers (128-124) in February 2009.

It might look as a risky bet, but the truth is, betting is always risky. What also supports my pick today is my NBA model, where I use advanced NBA stats to project my own lines, which then I compare with bookmaker’s lines to see if there is any considerable difference. My lines for this game:

New York Knicks: +7
Los Angeles Clippers: -7

Totals: 214

You can check my projected lines for all games on my Steemit page. Also, I share more picks on my Twitter.

Play Under 225.5 @ -105 / 1.95

Bet at BitcoinRush

FRA (B Basketball): Lille vs Quimper

This is the game from French second basketball league between Lille and Quimper, where one of the best teams in the league will face the second worst team.

When we take a look at the table there is only 3 point difference between first team and sixth team and I think this will be a hard battle until the end. Lille is one of those teams, in fact they are 5th best team right now, but they lost 3 straight games now and this game is one of those, where they will need to step up.

First of all, Lille 13-6 to the season with point difference +77. At home they are 9-1 and 5 out of 6 losses are on the road.

Quimper on the other side is the second worst teams in the league with the record 5-14 and point difference -157. In last 5 games they won 3 out of them and what is even more interesting, they won three straight games.

But if we check who they faced, they played against below average teams in all last 5 games. They will face for the first time one team that is in top 5. Note also, that Quimper has the worst point differential on the road with -113 points.

I think this whole situation needs small correction at this moment. Lille is still much stronger and they need to step up, on the other side bettors who will rely on current Quimper form (3 straight wins) could be fooled, because they didn’t face any of top teams. This will happen today and I expect that Lille wins this by at least 12 points.

Play Lille -11.5 (1.89)

Bet at sportsbet

Arsenal – Manchester City

Hi guys,

this is my first bet for BitcoinBettors, so let me introduce myself a little bit.

I´m 33 years old, graduated from Nottingham Trent University I was playing poker with some decent profit in last years. Betting and sports were only for fun.

But these days are gone. I´m not able to play online poker as a fulltime job now in the Czech Republic, so I´m searching for new ways to make some profit from my hobbies.

I´m using some math and statistical models to beat bookies and offer a different point of view. If you´re interested, you can find more info about me on my blog www.frisbald.com.

Working mostly on matches in Italian Serie A, but sometimes provide picks from another league.

About this bet. I don´t have expected goals here, but the qualities and form of these two teams are so different at the moment, I just can´t miss this match. I was writing about the last matchup of on my blog. As written, I see a big difference in players, but the biggest difference in coaches and their approach to the game. I´m Arsenal fan, so this is tough, but AW is out of the line now.

Arsenal is in a bad shape, players are playing without full pace and not fighting. Also creating huge mistakes in a defense. Offensive is also not so dangerous as it should be.

There is probably no need to write about qualities of MC. There are struggling a little bit against teams, which play deep defense game against them. For example, Wigan uses this and played well organized in an FA Cup and defeat Pep guys without allowing them any big chance.

BUT Arsenal is not a team, to play well organized, defense game and wait for a chance. Wenger seems like an old man without much sense for a tactical game these days. Arsenal has a terrible balance against top PL teams this season (1-3-4 against top teams, only victory 2:0 over Tottenham in the derby) AND against MC (no win in last 4  league matches).

I´m expecting MC to secure victory here in lower odds. 1,5-1,6 are proper odds for me on MC today, so I will take a shot and play 1,77 on Cloudbet.

Arsenal – Manchester City

Bet: MC to win

Bookmaker: CloudBet