This is the last game in this series between Baltimore and Cleveland. Indians lost first game, but then they outscored Baltimore in next two games by 11-3.
Bookmakers opened the odds at around 3.01 on Baltimore and those odds were simply too high and the value on Baltimore if you could catch that number was great. But despite line movement, I think the price around 2.5 is the last price, where I think there is still small value on Orioles.
Baltimore will start with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.57 and 19 strike outs in 21 innings. On the other side we have Carrasco, who is 3-0 to the season with ERA of 2.6 and 21 strike outs in 27 innings.
According to my numbers, we have pitching advantage on Indians side, but with Gausman we also have above league average pitcher and if we check his numbers against Cleveland he is 2-1, ERA 1.93.
Both teams are stuggling offensively so far this season. I would expect especially from Indians to score more, but they score only 3.6 runs per game with BA of 0.219.
Baltimore on the other side score 3.3 runs per game with batting average of 0.215 and we have pretty same offensive numbers on both teams.
I still rank Cleveland higher than Baltimore and Carrasco as a better pitcher than Gausman, but I think that the odds are little bit to big on a home team. I have projected with my betting model, that Baltimore should be underdog of around +116 and because of that there is a small value in the odds of around +150 or more.