MLB – Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) at Baltimore Orioles (Gausman)

This is the last game in this series between Baltimore and Cleveland. Indians lost first game, but then they outscored Baltimore in next two games by 11-3.

Bookmakers opened the odds at around 3.01 on Baltimore and those odds were simply too high and the value on Baltimore if you could catch that number was great. But despite line movement, I think the price around 2.5 is the last price, where I think there is still small value on Orioles.

Baltimore will start with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.57 and 19 strike outs in 21 innings. On the other side we have Carrasco, who is 3-0 to the season with ERA of 2.6 and 21 strike outs in 27 innings.

According to my numbers, we have pitching advantage on Indians side, but with Gausman we also have above league average pitcher and if we check his numbers against Cleveland he is 2-1, ERA 1.93.

Both teams are stuggling offensively so far this season. I would expect especially from Indians to score more, but they score only 3.6 runs per game with BA of 0.219.

Baltimore on the other side score 3.3 runs per game with batting average of 0.215 and we have pretty same offensive numbers on both teams.

I still rank Cleveland higher than Baltimore and Carrasco as a better pitcher than Gausman, but I think that the odds are little bit to big on a home team. I have projected with my betting model, that Baltimore should be underdog of around +116 and because of that there is a small value in the odds of around +150 or more.

Play Baltimore +156 at Bitcoinrush 

PL: Stoke x Burnley

Its time for another bet on Premier League. Stoke is fighting for survival in Premer League. There is a lot of reasons for this. Potters lost their last 3 home matches and were able to win in last 10 games. They are toothless in the offense, scored only 3 goals in last 6 matches. This low number of goals could be easily expected, as they are worst in Inbox shots (26) and created only 5 big chances (only WHU created less – 4). It´s even worse in defense. Conceded 10 goals, 11,1 xGoals, 64 Inbox shots and 17 big chances. To sum up, Stoke is playing very, very bad in last weeks.

 

Burnley, on the other hand, is playing very solid in last weeks. Burnley squad has some limitations (match against Chelsea show up that Burnley can be overplayed by the quality opposition), but it should be no big deal against pathetic Stoke.

Clarets are fighting Arsenal for European League spot. After lost to Chelsea in midweek game, they have to win today, if they are serious about it. It will be not an easy job, but odds are just too high. The lower number of goals is expected as well.

Stoke x Burnley, Burnley to win
Odds 3,46 (Cloudbet)

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MLB – Colorado (Freeland) at Pittsburgh (Kuhl)

Colorado beat Pittsburgh in first two games, despite they are playing on the road and despite they are playing without their key offensive player Arenado, who is serving suspension. Today they will face Chad Kuhl.

Chad Kuhl is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.74 and the the best game he played this season was against Cincinnati at home, where he struck out 7 hitters in 5 innings.

Colorado on the other side will start with Freeland, a left handed pitcher, who is 0-2 to the season with ERA of 4.50.

According to my rankings and my betting model, I don’t give any huge pitching advantage to any team here. But I like Pittsburgh because of better offense so far. And if we take into account, that Pittsburgh will try to avoid sweep and Colorado will miss one of their best offensive players, I think Pittsburgh is the play according to current offered odds.

Pittsburgh score 5.2 runs per game with batting average of 0.259. Colorado on the other side score 3.9 runs per game with batting average of 0.215. Note also that Pittsburgh Pirates are perfect 7-0 this season in day games.

Play Pittsburgh 1.86 (best odds at Bitcoinrush)

PL: Newcastle x Arsenal

Arsenal defense is in big troubles. They made a huge amount of big defensive errors (7 in last 6 matches, 2nd worst in Premier League) and conceded 51 shots from in box area in this matches. Only few teams were weaker in these crucial defensive statistics. When we take a closer look, Arsenal faced teams like Stoke, Southampton, and Watford in last weeks. So these statistics should be much lower.Their main weakness is in central zone, they conceded 23 chances in this area. One more thing. Arsenal played hard match in Moscow three days ago and players should be tired.

Newcastle offensive is not full of great strikers but is working fine. Gayle in on the top of most offensive statistics (except of goal scoring) in last weeks. He is third rated striker is expected goals involvement (only Aubemaynag and Murray are better) and produced 11 in box shots in last 6 matches. Ayoze Perez, his partner from attack, has not so cool numbers but scored 2 in last two matches, so he should feel very good. Kenedy, young Brazilian on loan from Chelsea, is also making huge positive impact on Newcatle offensive.

If you play Daily Fantasy Sports (for example on Fanteam), both strikers and Kenedy are also an interesting option.

Bet on home side is a viable option as well, but for this BitcoinBettors pick, I choose to bet on Newcastle score 1,5+, 2,37 odds on CloudBet.

Pick: Newcastle to score 2 or more goals, 2,37 odds, Bookmaker Cloudbet

For more info about me, please visit my blog www.frisbald.com. 

MLS: Sporting Kansas City – Seattle Sounders

Hi guys!

It might be a little early for betting on the MLS league, but I really like this bet because I think there is some value. I will not share my projected odds for this game, because there is just not enough numbers yet (Seattle played only 3 games) and I think it is pointless to completely rely on them. I will have some other reasons to make this bet, though.

Seattle Sounders will be missing Clint Dempsey, among other players, probably the best american soccer player in the recent years. He played only 37 minutes this season and then he got sent off. He also missed the opening game of the season for Seattle and this might be one of the reasons why are the Sounders without a point so far and with 5 conceded goals and none scored. Interesting fact is, that none of those 3 games see Seattle finishing the match with 11 players on the pitch. Their centre back, Tony Alfaro was sent off against LAFC, Dempsey got a red card after 37 minutes against FC Dallas and their right back, Kelvin Leerdam enjoyed only 40 minutes of game time in their home game vs Montreal.

Sporting Kansas City had a very good start to the new season, if we don’t count their opening game, which they lost 0-2 at home vs New York City. Even in that game, they were a little bit unlucky. I will also mention, that this team loves to attack. In average, they have 17 goal scoring attempts per game. In general, I think MLS is a very interesting league to watch, teams love to attack, and because of that we see a lot of goal scoring attempts on both sides, lot of goals, etc.
Kansas City are leading the Western Conference with 13 points from 6 matches, losing once, drawing once and winning 4 games. They scored the most goals in the league so far – 12, but they also conceded a lot – 9. If they can tighten the defence a little bit, they can become the title contenders this season.

 

Play Sporting Kansas City @ 1.74 / -136

Bet at BitcoinRush

 

 

NHL – Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins

This is the second game of the series in NHL playoffs and anyone who watched the first game, when Boston beat Toronto, knows, that the game was much closer. The final result was 5-1, but the result doesn’t show the true picture about the game at least most of the game. Toronto had couple of great chances and Boston was lucky at the result 1-1, that they didn’t receive a goal. If Toronto would score in that time, the game could go in different direction. What I want to say is that Toronto showed one more time, that they can play against Boston. And I believe they will show this today too.

Boston and Toronto met 4 times in a regular season and Toronto beat Boston in 3 of them. They also beat Boston in 7 of 9 games.

Bookmakers have odds of more than 2.50 on Toronto and I think we have some nice value here. I have projected Toronto at around 2.1 and I still give them less than 50% of chance, but when we talk as a sports bettors I think that the value is on their side.

Play Toronto -153

The best odds you can get are at Bitcoinrush. They accept US players.

NHL: San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks

Playoffs started in NHL and the latest game tonight is between San Jose and Anaheim. They played 4 games this season and San Jose beat Anaheim in 3 of them. But at the end of the season, Anaheim found their momentum and if they can bring this here, I think we have better team with Anaheim tonight.

Anaheim lost only 2 games in last 11 games in a regular season. They finished with the record of 44-38 and at home with the record 26-15. They score 2.9 goals per game and allow 2.6. At home they are even stronger, where they allow only 2.5 goals per game and at the same time score 3.1.

San Jose on the other side is 45-37 to the season, but they are going on the road in this game and they have losing road record (20-21), where they score 2.8 goals per game and allow 3.

According to my projections, I give Anaheim 62.79% of chance to win this game. My fair odds are Anaheim -169 (1.59) and San Jose +169 (2.69). Bitcoinrush has Anaheim at -140 (1.71) and the odds already dropped on the Ducks, but there is still small value.

Both teams have good goalies and according to latest information John Gibson could be in the net for Anaheim. But anyway even if he doesn’t start, they have one of the best two goalies in the league.

I am going with Anaheim here, because I think they found their momentum at the right time and we have one strong home team against a team that has losing record on the road. I don’t see any advantage in the net, we also know that those two teams know each other and those small things could be the key.

Note also that San Jose is still playing without Joe Thornton, who is big miss for them since January. Without him and especially without his experience San Jose is definitely weaker them.

Play Anaheim -140 (Bitcoinrush)

Championship: Bristol City – Birmingham

Hi guys!

After a few quiet days I am bringing you another recommended bet. The bet will be from the second highest english football (or soccer for american readers) league, Championship, in a match between Bristol City (8th) and Birmingham (20th).

My projected goals for Bristol are 1.53 goals in this game. They are on a bad form since Christmas, winning only 3 games, drawing 6 and losing 8. They are still on an OK form at home, losing only 1 in their last 6 home games. They still have a chance to fight for promotion and Birmingham’s away form is not the greatest either.

My projected goals for Birmingham are 0.79 goals. They are 1-4 in their last 5 away games and overall they are the second worst away team in the league, scoring 15 and conceding 36 goals so far in the campaign.

Let’s not forget to mention, however, that Bristol have never won against Birmingham when playing at home (0-1-6).

My projected win percentage for Bristol City: 55.05%
My projected odds on Bristol City: 1.82
Bookie’s odds on Bristol City: 2.08

I always recommend to make your own research before placing a bet.

Play Bristol City @ 2.08 (+108)

Bet at BitcoinRush

ITA: Chievo x Sassuolo

Hi guys,

after a short break, it´s time for another pick. Chievo is very weak and odds on Sassuolo should be lower. According to my betting model, there is a nice value in betting on visitors here.

Chievo x Sassuolo, Sassuolo to win, odds 2,7

More picks for today:
AC x Inter Milano, AC win

Benevento x Verona, Verona win