we are looking forward to a very busy month when it comes to Dota 2 tournaments. Currently, there is an ongoing tournament in Moscow called Epicenter XL and I think there is a value with a bet in a match between Mineski and Team Secret. The game is played on Friday 4th of May, at 1pm CET.
The group stages are all settled, and both teams are heading into the lower bracket with the same record from their respective groups – 2:3 on series, 6:7 on matches (Best of 3 series).
In every other season I would say, that we are approaching the end of the season and The International is near. However, that is not true in this season’s case, because there are still a lot of tournaments during the next 2 months and The International takes place at the end of August. If we reflect on the whole season now, we can say, that we had 3 very strong teams in the first half of the season – Virtus Pro, Team Liquid and Team Secret. Virtus Pro already secured themselves an invite to The International and Team Secret are closely behind them. However, in 2018, many other teams started stepping up and the triumvirate of these strong teams has vanished. Now a lot of teams are on the doorstep of being in the TOP 3 teams in the world, including Vici Gaming, PSG.LGD, Mineski. Also, some of the weaker teams progressed and are playing much better, like OG, paiN Gaming, VGJ Thunder, OpTic Gaming.
I can say with a confidence, that the scene is very competitive right now and most of the teams can beat each other. For that reason I think it is very unwise to set the odds in a huge favor of the favorized team. This is also the example in the bet which I had chosen.
Mineski are the Dota 2 Asia Championship (DAC) winners. They had beaten PSG.LGD in a Best of 5 series and became the reigning champions. They went 6-1 in the groupstages and then fought their way through the Upper Bracket beating OpTic Gaming 2-0, Vici Gaming 2-1, PSG.LGD 2-0 and then in the rematch in the grand finals 3-2. They didn’t have the best start into this tournament and barely qualified for the play-offs, but if they can sort themselves out and get out of this slump, they can win this tournament – they are the winners of the last Major tournament, after all.
On the other side, we have Team Secret. I think this team is favorized way too much. They won some tournaments in this season, but in 2018 they only won Dreamleague minor, beating Fnatic 3-0 in the finals. They didn’t really had a strong competition in that tournament and if we look at the games they have against TOP teams, they struggle. In ESL One Katowice they went into the play-offs as the second seeded team as they suffered a loss in the group stage finals against Fnatic 2-1. Right after that, they had been eliminated by Team Liquid with a 2-1 loss. At Bucharest Major, they secured themselves a spot in play-offs after going 3-1 in a swiss format group, beating paiN Gaming, OpTic Gaming, Complexity Gaming and losing to VGJ Thunder. They got eliminated in the first round of play-offs by Newbee as they lost 2-0. At DAC they went 4-3 in the group stages and were seeded into a breakout bracket of play-offs. They lost 2-0 to Vici Gaming and got eliminated. My point is, they have atrocious record at big events in 2018. They don’t look so dominating as they looked in December when they were beating VP and Team Liquid convincingly. Maybe they got figured out, maybe they are saving strats, but I don’t trust them. They even lost to Na’Vi in the group stages at this Epicenter XL tournament.
My projected odds:
Team Secret: 2.28
Team Secret: 1.605
Play Mineski @ 2.291
Bet at Nitrogensports