I will have 2 bets today as well. This is the first one in a best of 1 match of Epicenter XL (Dota 2 tournament in Moscow) lower brackets between Mineski and Virtus Pro.
My main idea for taking these bets in this tournament is, that the scene is getting more and more competitive as The International is getting closer and closer – that is very good for the scene. Most of the teams can beat each other. An example could be, that the two best teams of this season – Team Secret and Virtus Pro, both lost a Best of 3 series to Na’Vi, once a legendary team, these days hugely underperforming team on the verge of disband. For that reason I think betting on underdogs could be very beneficial – I don’t think the bookies are reacting quickly enough, they pay too much attention to historical data. Since the game changes very quickly (there is a patch every 2 weeks) teams had to adapt to new ideas, strategies, etc. Some teams might get burnt out from all the tournaments and travelling, etc. and for that reason I pay more attention to the latest data and results.
I backed Mineski in their previous match against Team Secret and I won that bet. I also won a bet on PSG.LGD as they beat Virtus Pro. Those two were both underdogs getting a win. I know underdogs can’t always win, but I am not looking for a winner, but I am looking for a value in bets (one of the most important things in sports betting, I learnt). And since there are not 2-3 teams dominating the scene anymore, I see a lot of potential value with teams stepping up lately. One of them is Mineski. They won Dota 2 Asian Championship 2 weeks ago, as they beat PSG.LGD in the grand finals 3-2. They had a rough start to Epicenter XL, barely securing a spot in the lower bracket of the play-offs. They beat Secret in the first round and now they have to go up against Virtus Pro. The reason for a rough start might have also been the fact that after their last tournament they took a break and went on a vacation. As Epicenter XL progresses, they are playing better and better and for that reason I think they will give Virtus Pro at least a run for their money. It is also a Best of 1, where anything can happen.
Virtus Pro are looking very good, they became the first team to secure an invite to The International 2018 and they constantly get good placements at tournaments. They are in fact a 3 time Major winners this season. However, and I already mentioned I pay a lot of attention to the latest results, they are not playing that convincingly at Epicenter XL. They dropped a game to paiN gaming in the groupstages, they lost the whole series to Na’Vi (who are a joke of a team, honestly) and they also lost to PSG.LGD 2-1. Especially in game 3, they had no idea what to do and got heavily outplayed. It is also a Best of 1 series as I mentioned, which also gives more chances to the underdogs, in general.
I am aware of the fact, that the underdogs can’t win every day. But I see a value in both bets I am taking. The game is played on Saturday, May 5th at 1pm (CET).
My projected probabilities:
Mineski: 51.20% (odds: 1.95)
Virtus Pro: 48.80% (odds: 2.05)
Virtus Pro: 1.493
Play Mineski @ 2.557
Bet at Nitrogensports