We had a very good yesterday in Dota 2 Epicenter tournament as we hit both our plays. I found some value in the upper bracket finals between PSG.LGD and Team Liquid.
As I mentioned in my previous write-ups, all the tier 1 teams are very competitive right now. Most of the teams can beat each other and that’s why it is a good idea to bet on underdogs. I think the bookies are not reacting to it in time and are taking the previous results into account too much. The days of Team Liquid / Virtus Pro / Team Secret dominance are over and more and more teams are knocking on the door of TOP3, maybe we should even call it TOP 5 teams in the world. One of those teams are PSG.LGD, previously known as LGD or LGD Gaming. They signed a sponsorship with Paris St. Germain esports organization, so now we have Neymar and Cavani leading the team (that was a joke).
I think the latest data and the latest numbers from the games are way more relevant than the historical data, because the game changes very quickly. There are minor and sometimes even major updates every 14 days and teams need to adjust to them very quickly. It looks like Team Liquid has acclimated very well to the most recent changes and they are having very good results.
These two teams already met in the group stages and Team Liquid won 2-1. PSG.LGD will now have a chance for revenge and they are coming off of a win against Virtus Pro (my bet from yesterday).
Team Liquid also advanced into the upper bracket finals, but they had to go up against OG – a team that I can’t find the right words for. They are dominating the scene in european qualifiers (the best teams are invited straight to the event most of the times) but when they go up against the TOP teams, they have no chance, and it has been like that for the whole season. My point is, that this wasn’t really a test for Team Liquid, and especially in game 1 which they have played today, if they had played against a better team, they would have probably lost that game – because of picks, lane matchups, early game advantage, etc. However OG couldn’t manage to turn an insanely good early game into a real game advantage and Team Liquid beat them.
One last thing about PSG.LGD. It is known for years now, that every iteration of LGD team had come to a rise before The International, and it looks like they are on the rise again. They were the finalists of DAC 2018 2 weeks ago (which they lost to Mineski 3-2) and are continually showing an improvement.
The game is being played on Saturday, May 5th at 6pm (CET). The schedule can be moved, though, based on how the earlier games finish.
My projected win probabilities:
PSG.LGD: 48% (odds: 2.08)
Team Liquid: 52% (odds: 1.92)
Team Liquid: 1.521
Play PSG.LGD @ 2.478
Bet at Nitrogensports