I have another bet to share for Sunday, May 6th. The lower bracket finals between FlyToMoon and Team Liquid starts at 12pm CET.
It proved very beneficial to bet on underdogs in this tournament and I have been avoiding FlyToMoon for a couple of reasons. They are a team that qualified through a so-called Madness qualifier, a last chance qualifier and nobody expected them to leave a mark in this tournament. They already surprised in the group stages, as they went through to the lower bracket play-offs with a score of 3-2 in series and 7-6 in all matches. They beat Mineski 2-1, complexity 2-0, Empire 2-1, they lost to PSG.LGD 2-0 and to Team Liquid 2-1. I would like to say one or two things about that series. FlyToMoon were leading 1-0 and they had their hands on game number 2 as well. They were very close to winning, Team Liquid showed great quality and managed to somehow come back and win. After that, in game 3 FlyToMoon didn’t stand a chance but that could be also due to a huge disappointment that happened in game 2. Psychological and mental state matters a lot in Dota 2 games.
As I said yesterday or the day before that, I think betting on underdogs is very beneficial – and it is true, as I went 3-1 in the last 2 days as I bet on underdogs. Could have been 4-0 but Mineski managed to lose an almost won game. It happens. I didn’t want to take a bet for the Finals day, as FlyToMoon is a quite new team, recently formed, but they are showing great results. They have couple of guys with experience from previous Internationals (Alwayswannafly, Silent) and other notable players like Nofear or Iceberg that had been on the scene for very long but lacked success. It looks like a perfect storm for them and they already secured themselves a Top 3 finish. I don’t have a lot of numbers for this team, that was another reason why I have been avoiding their games, even though I have predicted they would win against paiN Gaming and I gave them good chances against OG as well. They went through, but that still doesn’t justify betting on them.
Team Liquid went through the group stages with perfect record of 5-0 on series (10-2 on matches). They also destroyed OG in the first round of Upper bracket playoffs but then they lost against PSG.LGD 2-0 (my winning bet from Saturday). They don’t look so good, they have been playing way too confidently and maybe even too cheeky, like they don’t respect their opponents enough. However, Team Liquid are one of the best teams currently and it would be stupid not to favor them in this matchup. They should be huge favorites, the question is, how huge?
So as I said, I don’t have enough numbers for FlyToMoon so my projected lines maybe don’t reflect the true power of these teams. But one thing that convinced me to bet on FlyToMoon other than my numbers were the fact that FlyToMoon also managed to knock-out Virtus Pro – the best team in the world according to Gosugamers rankings and DPC points. They beat them 2-0 without any issue. I really like their playstyle, they are very unpredictable and versatile. They are rightly the underdogs in this matchup but I think the odds might be a bit too high on them.
My projected odds:
FlyToMoon: 2.67 (37.45%)
Team Liquid: 1.598 (62.55%)
Team Liquid: 1.303
Play FlyToMoon @ 3.397
Bet at Nitrogensports