Dota 2: VGJ. Storm – TheFinalTribe

Hey guys,

just after a couple of days after Epicenter XL ended we have another Dota 2 tournament. This time it is a minor tournament in Thailand, called GESC. We have the first round of the play-offs being played between two Tier 2 teams.

Tier 2 teams are like mid-table teams in the Premier League, or those kind of teams from NBA that somehow make the play-offs but go out in the first round getting beaten 4-0 in a Best of 7 series. We have TheFinalTribe and VGJ. Storm facing each other today. They already played a single Best of 1 game against each other in the group stages, where VGJ. Storm and they look like the better team, and some of the stats and numbers I use for my projections confirm that VGJ. Storm is the better team here indeed. There are a lot of similarities between these two teams – some experienced players, Tier 2 teams knowing there is no real chance to qualify for The International, already preparing for the Qualifiers in the back of their head.

For some reason, bookies decided to overwhelmingly favor VGJ. Storm in this game.

My odds:
VGJ. Storm: 1.64 (61.1%)
TheFinalTribe: 2.57 (38.9%)

Bookie odds:
VGJ. Storm: 1.340
TheFinalTribe: 3.180

I see some value with TheFinalTribe. Be aware, this is not going to be a high quality game, these are not top teams, I would even go as far as to say, that this is a 50/50 game when it come to my opinion on it as a Dota 2 fan. Obviously, VGJ. Storm is the team with the more potential and they are the better team, but I think bookies underestimate TheFinalTribe a bit too much.

Play TheFinalTribe @ 3.180

Bet at Nitrogensports