MLS: Seattle Sounders @ Minnesota United

Hi guys,

I see a value bet in an MLS game playing next weekend, between Minnesota and Seattle.

It will be the first round after the All-star “break”, which is not really a break, because the selected players have to play 3 games in 9 days, maybe that’s the reason why Ibrahimovic from LA Galaxy rejected this “opportunity” to play in the All-star game vs Juventus. Players that refuse to play in the all-star game, get a 1 match suspension. This all-star match shouldn’t really affect neither Minnesota nor Seattle.

My projected lines:
Minnesota: 1.93
Seattle: 4.06
Draw: 4.22

Minnesota is an average league team, they are occupying the 13th place in a combined table of conferences. However, they are a much much better home team – actually, they are the 3rd best home team in the league, scoring on average 1.92 goals at home, and conceding 1.25 goals per match. When we take a look at other offensive stats, we see, that Minnesota is the best shooting team, having 17.29% efficiency (shots to goals). Most of the time they rely on counter-attacks, as we see that they are the team with one of the least amount of shot attempts and they also allow a lot of shot attempts for their opponents.

Even though Seattle are on the rise, not losing in their last 5 games, they still have atrocious stats. Only 9.18 goal scoring attempts away from home, with horrible efficiency (8.91%).

Bookies lines:
Minnesota: 2.18
Seattle: 3.24
Draw: 3.72


Play Minnesota United @ 2.18

Bet at BitcoinRush


MLS: Philadelphia Union @ Chicago Fire

Hi, everyone.

Today I found value in a game between Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union.

According to my (not very) simple predicting model, Chicago Fire will have higher chance to win this game, than what bookies think.

First of all, Chicago Fire is the most efficient home team when it comes to chances in the penalty area. On the other side, Philadelphia away, allow the 7th most shots from penalty area in the league. Another thing about Philadelphia, they have 4 points (1W,1D) from games away from home, and the same number of goals scored. That means, they rank 14th when it comes to 6Y box efficiency, 20th in penalty area efficiency and 17th out of the box efficiency – out of 23 teams that compete in MLS. That’s pretty bad. But the silver lining for them is, that Chicago Fire’s defence is atrocious – kindly said. They allow the second most shots from the penalty area and out of the box among all MLS teams playing at home. The question is, whether Philadelphia can convert those shots into goals. The results of my calculations don’t think so.

My calculated expected goals for Chicago Fire: 1.567
My calculated expected goals for Philadelphia Union: 0.519

I give Chicago Fire more than 60% chance to win, bookies offer us odds of 2.11 (that means they give Chicago Fire less than 50% win chance). I see a value in this.


Play Chicago Fire @ 2.11

Bet at BitcoinRush