Today I found value in a game between Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union.
According to my (not very) simple predicting model, Chicago Fire will have higher chance to win this game, than what bookies think.
First of all, Chicago Fire is the most efficient home team when it comes to chances in the penalty area. On the other side, Philadelphia away, allow the 7th most shots from penalty area in the league. Another thing about Philadelphia, they have 4 points (1W,1D) from games away from home, and the same number of goals scored. That means, they rank 14th when it comes to 6Y box efficiency, 20th in penalty area efficiency and 17th out of the box efficiency – out of 23 teams that compete in MLS. That’s pretty bad. But the silver lining for them is, that Chicago Fire’s defence is atrocious – kindly said. They allow the second most shots from the penalty area and out of the box among all MLS teams playing at home. The question is, whether Philadelphia can convert those shots into goals. The results of my calculations don’t think so.
My calculated expected goals for Chicago Fire: 1.567
My calculated expected goals for Philadelphia Union: 0.519
I give Chicago Fire more than 60% chance to win, bookies offer us odds of 2.11 (that means they give Chicago Fire less than 50% win chance). I see a value in this.
Play Chicago Fire @ 2.11
Bet at BitcoinRush