Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspurs : Match Preview

The Red Devils already made a wrong step in the last round at Brighton and will want to get back on track. The Spurs, on the other side, can be happy with their perfect start gaining 6 out of 6 points in the first two rounds.

Last performances

The away trip to Brighton was a thriller in the first half where we witnessed 4 goals(3 from the hosts and 1 from Lukaku). Both of the teams kept a clean sheet in the second half with Pogba’s late 95th-minute penalty goal making a hopeless change on the scoring board.

Tottenham eased past Fulham with a convincing performance and an overall score of 3-1.  The Lilywhites had a whopping amount of 25 goal occasions and 11 shots on goal.

Old Trafford to rebound Manchester United?

The hosts can gather confidence from the last home encounters with The Spurs. Mourinho’s men managed to win the last 4 home head to head matches. An important fact is that United managed to keep a clean sheet in all of this meetings.

The Red Devils likely to change formation

The two centre-backs, Bailly and Lindelof, were far from good at Amex last week.  This is why Mourinho is expected to switch to 3 defenders on the back. The returning of Antonio Valencia can prove useful in Monday’s clash especially as Luke Shaw accused some foot problems.

Reinforcements are coming

Alexis Sanchez, the former Arsenal star, is fit again after his injury ahead of Brighton match and should be hungry for goals. There is a lot of competition on United’s attacking third, so Sanchez will want to make his presence felt.

Besides the Chilean, Nemanja Matic returned to training and should be fit to strengthen the midfield line.

Tottenham’s not so lucky news

Mauricio Pochettino hasn’t got much to complain about. His squad is almost at full strength with just one important missing(Son Heung-min due to international duty). On the other hand, he faced a surprise this weekend when he found out that his team’s captain, Hugo Lloris, was found driving drunk after a night out. The Lilywhites’ captain apologized, but this may lead to him missing out Monday’s clash. However, Mauricio is in good relationship with Lloris, so he should be in the starting eleven.

The Lloris incident struck after the team found out that they won’t be able to play at the new stadium until October due to some electricity problems.

Mourinho under pressure

United’s boss needs to pull out a good result on Monday evening otherwise, he will risk being sacked and replaced by heavy linked Zinedine Zidane. Jose’s conflict with Pogba does no good to the team’s overall spirit neither. However, the Portuguese coach is experienced and should be able to motivate his team for Monday.

Betting Prediction

Manchester United remain a strong attacking side and Old Trafford is one of the toughest stadiums in the world. Even if The Red Devils are in uncharted waters and they face a well-organized team in the likes of Tottenham, I expect them to benefit from the returns of Valencia, Matic and Alexis Sanchez.

  • Manchester United +0 Asian handicap

    at 1.79 odds

 

 

MLB: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves

What a game yesterday, Atlanta Braves were leading by 3-0 until the end of the game and then Colorado Rockies came back with 3 runs to tie the game in 9th inning. Right in the next inning they scored 2 more and the win went to Colorado. It was definitely frustrating for Braves how they lost three straight games at home, but they will try to avoid a home sweep.

WINNING TEAMS

Both teams have a winning record and late in the season every win is very important. Colorado Rockies are 66-56 to the season, on the other side we have Atlanta Braves with the record of 68-53. What is interesting with Colorado is that they are playing very good on the road this season. They hold away record of 35-29 and playing on them on the road was profitable so far with +15.4 units. But also Atlanta Braves are playing good baseball and they hold good home record of 34-26, which made a profit of +5.70 units for bettors.

Atlanta Braves are scores 4.9 runs per game with batting average of 0.262, and if we check other much more important batting metrics, they are very solid hitting team and I rank them as #11 best hitting team in the league.

Colorado on the other side scores 4.7 runs per game and I have them as 8th best hitting team against left handed pitchers, but unfortunately for them, they will not play against left handed pitcher, but against very solid right handed pitcher on the road and they score 4.4 runs per on the road with not impressive batting average (0.232) and 4.6 runs per game versus RHP.

With current hitting situation I give small advantage to Atlanta here.

CLOSE PITCHING MATCH UP

Atlanta Braves will start with Anibal Sanchez, who is 6-3 to the season with ERA of 3.17. He has been very solid this season and I rank him above league average. 88 strikeouts in 88 innings and what is very interesting is that he is 4-0 against Colorado in his career with ERA of 1.99 (5-1 team). But of course this should not mean anything, but it is interesting information, that he always played well against the Rockies.

Chacin will start on the other side for Colorado and he has been very good pitcher for this team this season. Record 10-9, ERA of 4.58, but if we check his numbers little bit deeper, I don’t rank him lower than Anibal Sanchez on the other side. What is very interesting is that he has been playing well outside of Coors Field. His road ERA is 3.04 and ha played well in last couple of games too. But what is also interesting, is that one of the worst games this season he had exactly against Atlanta. He walked 6 Atlanta hitters and finished with 7 ER in that game.

BULLPEN ADVANTAGE

Atlanta lost a game yesterday after they were leading 8 innings. It was a blown save from their bullpen, but we can not make judgement about their pitching stuff after that game and if we take a look at a bigger picture, I give Braves advantage here. ERA 4.12 and I rank them as above league average bullpens (#11). Colorado on the other side has a bullpen with ERA of 5.18 and I rank them just below league average (#17). Their away numbers are little bit better as we know, that their home ballpark is not pitcher friendly, but still I think that Atlanta will have small advantage here.

PROJECTIONS, +EV and BOOKMAKERS ODDS

Bookmakers opened the odds at around 1.80 and since then the odds dropped little bit to around 1.76. But I still think we have some value here. I have projected, that Atlanta will have 64.03% of chance winning this game. My fair odds on Atlanta braves are at -178 and because of that there is some value.

RECOMMENDED BET

I believe that Atlanta will make extra effort to avoid a sweep today. Of course this is not a guarantee for anything, but if we check schedule right now, Colorado is going home after this game. This is the last game for them in the east and honestly they made a great job. Yesterday, they were little bit lucky, but who cares, at the end of the day they count another win.

When it comes to pitching, I don’t give any advantage at the start of the game. I think we have two very solid pitchers on the mound and I would not make a big deal out of pitchers performances in the past against those two teams (ATL – Sanchez 4-0 vs Col with ERA 1.99, COL – Chacin 0-1 vs Atl with ERA of 13.49). But I will give small advantage to Atlante late in the game, because based on my numbers they have better bullpen.

Hitting will be also on Atlanta Braves side and especially because we have two right handed pitchers on the mound. Both teams are very good against lefties, but when it comes to hitting against right handed pitchers I give advantage to Braves.

So, after three straight losses, I recommend to take Atlanta Braves for a bounce back and avoiding a sweep.

ATLANTA 1.76

Bet at Cloudbet or Bitcoinrush (US accepted)

MLS: Columbus Crew @ Atlanta United

Hi guys.

I may have found a value bet to share with you. It is from the game between Atlanta United and Columbus Crew, in the Major League Soccer.

We have two very good teams, as they are sitting in the 1st (Atlanta United) and 5th (Columbus Crew) places in a combined table of both conferences. Atlanta is also the 5th best home team in the combined table of both conferences, and Columbus occupies the 12th place in a table of away teams.
But a table of teams based on points tells us nothing, so let’s go deeper.
Atlanta United score in average 2.54 goals per home game and they concede 1.23 goals in average (in home games). Their shot conversion is 13.92% (attempts converted to goals), which is the 6th best in the league (again, in home games). But this is still not enough. Let’s see how many attempts they have, shall we?
Atlanta United in average, attempts to score 18.23 times per home game (4th best in the league), and they allow their opposition to attempt to score only 9.60 times in their stadium (2nd best in the league).

Now let’s check how Columbus Crew are fairing from the same point of view.
Columbus Crew score in average 0.55 goals per game away from home, and concede 1.09 goals per game in an average away game. However, if we look at the shot conversion, we see how abysmal their scoring efficiency is – only 3.85% of attempts end with goals, this is the worst shot conversion in the whole league (talking about away games, just reminding you all). I expect this number to go up, because teams can’t have “bad luck” all the time. My reason for this expectation is, that other than shot conversion, Columbus is playing very well away from home, if we look at it from this statistical point of view – in an average game away from home, they attempt to score 14.18 times (2nd best in the league) and allow their opposition to score only 12.50 times (3rd best in the league, the lower the number the better, of course).

There is also some speculation about how teams will set up for this game. Atlanta might experiment with 3 defenders at the back again.
Let’s look at the injuries and suspensions on both sides. Columbus Crew will be missing Eduardo Sosa (only 275 minutes played, 1 goal). On the other side, Atlanta might be missing Ezequiel Barco (midfielder, 1237 minutes played in 15 starting appearances, 4 goals 1 assist) and some other players like Greg Garza (defender, 865 minutes, 1 goal, 1 assist), Darlington Nagbe (midfielder, 1465 minutes, 1 assist), Mikey Ambrose (defender, 731 minutes, 1 assist) and Sal Zizzo (defender/midfielder, 157 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists).
With that many (left) defender injured, no wonder Atlanta might be playing with 3 at the back. I don’t want to get into any bold predictions, but if I was the coach, I would not order my team to all-out-attack, but play it safely, with such holes in the defense, Columbus might be getting some chances to score.

Anyway, I have created a (not that) simple model in excel sheets, that will calculate the winning percentages from the number of expected goals, which also is calculated by some input stats, that I shall not reveal. Based on these stats, my expected goals for these teams are:

Atlanta United: 1.825
Columbus Crew: 0.580

From these numbers, we can calculate various things. The one where I found value was Total Goals. My percentages:

Under 2.5: 56.81% (which gets us to odds of 1.76)
Over 2.5: 43.10% (which gets us to odds of 2.32)

Bookies odds:

Under 2.5: 2.60
Over 2.5: 1.48

 

Play Under 2.5 Total Goals

Bet at Sportsbet.io

Cardiff vs Newcastle : Match Preview

Two first round losers, in the likes of Cardiff and Newcastle, will meet on Cardiff City Stadium in the opening match of the second round of 2018/19 English Premier League season.

Cardiff will be stronger

Besides the advantage of playing at home, Neil Warnock’s men will benefit from the availability of their well-built striker, Zohore. He managed to score 9 goals and give 5 assists in Championship’s last season.

Cardiff’s midfield clearly lacked consistency in their 2-0 loss at Bournemouth. Paterson and Ralls were not really up to the task. Good news for the Bluebirds as former Cherries midfielder, Arter, and new signing Camarasa will both be available to help the midfield line.

Head to Head Dominance for Magpies

Rafael Benitez’s side holds a pretty solid record in the departures to Cardiff. Newcastle managed to win all the 3 official matches played as visitors against The Bluebirds. The meetings took place in 2009,  2013 and 2017.

Moreover, Newcastle managed to win the last 3 matches against The Bluebirds(0-2, 2-1, 3-0). Also, if we look closer, the Magpies won both of the Premier League encounters between them with 1-2 and 3-0 in the 2013/2014 season.

The Bluebirds are “doomed”

This term, “doomed”, was used by Chris Sutton(former England striker and current sports commentator) to predict Cardiff’s destiny this season. His argument is Bluebirds’ weak transfer campaign in comparison with the other promoted teams “When you look at the other sides who have come up, Wolves have spent big money, Fulham have spent big money.”

Well, I do not think Sutton has enough facts to sustain his affirmation(that is why he has been called ‘lazy’), but after the first round, he is not far from the truth.

Will Benitez keep his outstanding record?

Rafael Benitez can be proud of winning all his 3 matches against Cardiff in his coaching career. This should give him confidence ahead of Saturday’s clash. On the other side, Neil Warnock could be pretty intimidated by the fact that Benitez won 4 times and drew once in the head to head matches between the two managers.

Magpies will probably miss Yedlin

Newcastle’s main right-back, DeAndre Yedlin, is set to miss weekend action due to a knee injury he had picked up in the 1-2 defeat against Tottenham. This is a problem for Benitez as he has few options available at full-back considering Newcastle’s lack of squad depth.

The solution? Javier Manquillo, who was Yedlin’s substitute in the weekend and the usual first bench option at full back in the last season. Manquillo can play on both flanks, but he is right-footed so he should be more valuable on the right-back position.

Newcastle, a dangerous side

The Black and Whites were everything but a dormant side in the last weekend. They looked like they could have won against Spurs. Magpies had 2 woodwork hits alongside a good amount of goal occasions against a strong Spurs side. Benitez’s side proved strong mentality after scoring just 3 minutes after Vertonghen’s opener even if they were surprised (just 7 minutes later) by Alli’s header. The game ended 1-2 for Tottenham, with both teams finishing with 15 goal occasions.

Betting Prediction

Cardiff will be more dangerous with the new additions while Newcastle’s lack of luck against Tottenham should transform into a good karma on Saturday afternoon. However, head to head history, coaches direct meetings and Magpies’ more valuable squad show that Newcastle got the first chance despite missing their right-back.

  • Over 1.5 goals at 1.45 odds

  • Newcastle to win at 2.55 odds