Bologna vs Udinese Prediction & Match Preview

Bologna vs Udinese
Italian Serie A.
Date: Sunday 30 September 2018
Kick-Off: 11:30 UK,
Venue: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara (Bologna)

After a shock win against Roma, Bologna were brought back down to earth as they lost 2-0 to Juventus. That was hardly a surprise as the Rossoblu were going to face an uphill battle against the reigning Scudetto champions, but they will hope to rebound as they take on Udinese on home turf on Sunday. The Zebrette come into this game also having lost midweek against Lazio, and Udinese are a side who had a lot of problems last season. They infamously lost 11 games in a row to plummet down the table but managed to turn things around and avoid the drop, and will hope to use this game to rebound as Bologna are a side they will view as a team they can certainly pick off in terms of adding points to their total. Notably, they beat Chievo last weekend and Bologna are also one of those teams who sit around the drop zone, so Udinese certainly will be fancying their chances. Likewise, Bologna, too will be hoping for a result as Udinese are also in the bottom half of the table. The hosts will look to grab a goal against a team who have struggled to keep clean sheets in their travels, where they have conceded at least one goal in nine of their last 11 away fixtures. That being said, Udinese also did score in nearly 80% of their away games, whilst Bologna conceded in nearly 80% of their home fixtures, meaning that this could be an open fixture.

Bologna vs Udinese: Head-to-head statistics

Bologna have lost eight of their last 10 Serie A games. The Rossoblu have also failed to score in six of their last seven Serie A fixtures
However, they have scored in five of their last six meetings at home against Udinese.

BOLOGNA TEAM NEWS

Erick Pulgar is banned, as he serves the final leg of his suspension here. Forward Federico Santander should step in to their front two.

UDINESE TEAM NEWS

Kevin Lasagna has lost his place as a regular starter, so he could miss out again here. Otherwise, Udinese have no other major selection issues.

Both teams lost midweek and that means both sides will be eager for a result. With both teams in the bottom half of the table, picking up a result here could mean a big difference come the end of the season when points total will count that much more. However, at this juncture, Udinese seem to be in slightly better form and as a result the Zebrette look the more likely to get something out of this fixture. Bologna did manage to shock Roma, but that was an out-of-sorts Roma side.

My prediction:

Bet  Bologna  AH (0)  Best odds 1.92

I will bet here

Moreirense vs Feirense Predictions and Match Preview

Moreirense vs Feirense
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Date: Saturday, 29 September 2018
Kick-Off at 16:30 UK / 17:30 CET
Venue: Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

PORTUGAL PREMEIRA LIGA Moreirense v Feirense – Primeira Liga

Moreirense will be facing Feirense after conquering the first major trophy for the club by beating Braga in the final of the Portuguese League Cup. Despite the players being really motivated, Augusto Inácio already requires high focus in this game against Feirense since they still have other objectives to achieve. Geraldes and Podence, who were two of the most important players in the team, returned to Sporting and Augusto Inácio will need to deal with this issue since they were two of the most important players on the pitch. Nildo Petrolina and Boateng are believed to be replacing them and they will certainly give consistency. Neto and Bouba Saré are the only unavailable players and Moreirense will be a completely motivated team trying to defeat Feirense. The team should take advantage of this moment and they should be slight favourites despite Feirense’s good moment in the Portuguese league.

Feirense will be a confident team to face Moreirense since they have only lost once in 2017 against Sporting. Sometimes they should gain some more consistency by conquering more than one point in each game, but it is also true that it is better to earn only one point that none in some other matches. This should be a competitive match between two teams that are still safe in the table at the moment, but Feirense will definitely want to continue with their good moment in the season. Portuguese manager Nuno Manta will keep almost the same strategy for this match and Cris should be the only player returning to the line-up after suspension. Feirense will definitely try to take advantage of some possible overconfidence from some of Moreirense’s players and they should be expected to keep quite balanced during the whole match trying to earn at least one point from this clash.

Moreirense vs Feirense: Head-to-head

The two sides met each other three times last season. The record was a single win, draw and loss apiece.Feirense took four points from two league games without conceding a single goal, while Os Verdes e Brancos came on top in the Taca da Liga clash (2-1 at home). Three of last four head to head matches ended with less than three goals scored.

VERDICT & PREDICTION

Despite their classification in the Portuguese league, Moreirense will be extremely motivated after conquering a trophy for the club. This was perhaps the most notable trophy conquered by the club, so the players will certainly be delighted with this achievement. However, they are still not totally comfortable in the table, which means they really need to continue with positive performances to achieve one more objective of the club by the end of the season, trying to avoid relegation. After such a great success, Moreirense will be more favourite to win and should have more chance of conquering the three points. Nevertheless, Feirense will be a competitive opponent and should also have fair opportunities to score. Feirense should be taking advantage of some possible match fitness issues of some Moreirense’s players and possibly some overconfidence from their last achievement in the Portuguese League Cup.

My prediction:

Bet Moreirense AH (0)  Best odds 1.62

I use this bookmaker

Moreirense vs Feirense Predictions and Match Preview

Moreirense vs Feirense
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Date: Saturday, 29 September 2018
Kick-Off at 16:30 UK / 17:30 CET
Venue: Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos).

PORTUGAL PREMEIRA LIGAMoreirense v Feirense – Primeira Liga
Moreirense v Feirense – Primeira Liga
Moreirense will be facing Feirense after conquering the first major trophy for the club by beating Braga in the final of the Portuguese League Cup. Despite the players being really motivated, Augusto Inácio already requires high focus in this game against Feirense since they still have other objectives to achieve. Geraldes and Podence, who were two of the most important players in the team, returned to Sporting and Augusto Inácio will need to deal with this issue since they were two of the most important players on the pitch. Nildo Petrolina and Boateng are believed to be replacing them and they will certainly give consistency. Neto and Bouba Saré are the only unavailable players and Moreirense will be a completely motivated team trying to defeat Feirense. The team should take advantage of this moment and they should be slight favourites despite Feirense’s good moment in the Portuguese league.

Feirense will be a confident team to face Moreirense since they have only lost once in 2017 against Sporting. Sometimes they should gain some more consistency by conquering more than one point in each game, but it is also true that it is better to earn only one point that none in some other matches. This should be a competitive match between two teams that are still safe in the table at the moment, but Feirense will definitely want to continue with their good moment in the season. Portuguese manager Nuno Manta will keep almost the same strategy for this match and Cris should be the only player returning to the line-up after suspension. Feirense will definitely try to take advantage of some possible overconfidence from some of Moreirense’s players and they should be expected to keep quite balanced during the whole match trying to earn at least one point from this clash.

Moreirense vs Feirense: Head-to-head

The two sides met each other three times last season.The record was a single win, draw and loss apiece.Feirense took four points from two league games without conceding a single goal, while Os Verdes e Brancos came on top in the Taca da Liga clash (2-1 at home). Three of last four head to head matches ended with less than three goals scored.

VERDICT & PREDICTION

Despite their classification in the Portuguese league, Moreirense will be extremely motivated after conquering a trophy for the club. This was perhaps the most notable trophy conquered by the club, so the players will certainly be delighted with this achievement. However, they are still not totally comfortable in the table, which means they really need to continue with positive performances to achieve one more objective of the club by the end of the season, trying to avoid relegation. After such a great success, Moreirense will be more favourite to win and should have more chance of conquering the three points. Nevertheless, Feirense will be a competitive opponent and should also have fair opportunities to score. Feirense should be taking advantage of some possible match fitness issues of some Moreirense’s players and possibly some overconfidence from their last achievement in the Portuguese League Cup.

My prediction:

Bet Moreirense  AH (0)  Best odds 1.62

I use this bookmaker

Monaco vs Angers Prediction and Match Preview

Monaco will look to end their recent poor run when they host Angers in a Ligue 1 clash at the Stade Louis II. The home team have struggled in the last few weeks but should end disappointing spell with victory.

AS Monaco FC

Leonardo Jardim’s team are coming off a poor 1-1 draw at home to lowly Nimes in their previous Ligue 1 fixture. It was yet another bad performance from the Principality club as they were made to come from behind to secure the point thanks to Radamel Falcao.The 2016-17 champions have struggled this season, especially at home where they are yet to win a match. They are currently on a six match winless run in all competitions and are down in 12th on the Ligue 1 table.Falcao has been one of the few shining lights in a poor campaign for Monaco this season. The Colombian striker has scored three goals in five matches for the hosts and is expected to continue as the lone man in attack with Stevan Jovetic still out injured.

Angers SCO

Stephane Moulin’s men held high-flying Toulouse to a draw in their previous outing last Saturday. They put up a decent performance and created several goal scoring opportunities but failed to put the ball in the back of the net.The visitors appear to have turned a corner after a poor start to the season that saw them suffer defeats in their opening two matches of the campaign. They are now unbeaten in their last three league outings with two of those fixtures ending in wins.

Head-to-Head

Monaco have been the dominant team in recent matches with seven wins in their previous 11 meetings. They have also won five of their last six fixtures against Angers, keeping clean sheets on all five occasions.Jardim’s team did the double over the visitors last season, claiming a 1-0 home win before securing a 4-0 victory at the Stade Raymond Kopa in the reverse fixture.

Match-up

Radamel Falcao appears to be the man carrying the attacking threat for Monaco at the moment. The 32-year-old has scored three goals in five matches this season and will be confident of getting the better of Mateo Pavlovic and Ismael Traore at the back for Angers.At the other end of the pitch, the duo of Kamil Glik and Kevin N’Doram have been less than solid this season. They will, however, be confident of shutting out Bahoken and Manga, both of whom have struggled in attack for Angers.

Key Statistics

Monaco have won 7 of their previous 11 matches against Angers SCO (All Competitions).
Monaco have seen Under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Ligue 1).
Monaco have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 home matches against Angers (All Competitions).
Angers have lost 10 of their last 15 away matches (Ligue 1).
Angers have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches against Monaco (All Competitions).

Verdict

Monaco may have struggled in their recent matches but they are due a win. With their impressive record against Angers, they should secure a slim victory on Tuesday.

My prediction:

Bet Monaco to Win

I bet here 

Frosinone vs Juventus Preview: Team News, Score Prediction & More

Serie A returns this weekend as Juventus travel to newly promoted Frosinone. A tearful Ronaldo needs to pick himself up and get back to business, with the Portuguese bound to have goalscoring opportunities against much weaker opposition. The game has a David vs Goliath feel to it. In fact the Twitter accounts of both clubs highlight this.​Fro​sinone have a total of 37,000 followers, in comparison to the 6.1m who are following ​Juventus. However, as we know, this has no bearing on Sunday’s outcome and Juventus should not head into Sunday’s game with any lurking complacency. Despite ​Frosinone turning 90 this month, the two clubs have met only on a handful of occasions. Two of these fixtures were held in Serie B, after Juventus’ enforced relegation left them competing in Italy’s second division for the first time in the clubs history. Frosinone, who welcome Juventus to the 16,000 capacity Stadio Benito Stripe, have never beaten the Old Lady, losing three and drawing once. Coupled with poor form, the Canarini are languishing in 19th, with just one point. Conceding ten and scoring none, Frosinone are going to hope all their birthday wishes come true at once.In complete contrast, Juve sit proud at the top of Serie A. Boasting twelve points from a possible twelve, they are the only side to have a perfect and unbeaten start to the season.

Classic Encounter

Despite only facing one another on four occasions, this fixture has seen its dose of drama. ​Juventus, as expected, have traditionally been overwhelming favourites, but yet it appears at times expectation can be problematic. Featuring a side with the likes of Paul Pogba, Juan Cuadrado, Leonardo Bonucci and Stephan Lichtsteiner, the Bianconeri were unable to prevent Frosinone from picking up their first point of the 2015/16 season.
In a fairly dull first half, which did see Pogba thunder a shot off the bat, it looked like being one of those days. However, determined to mark his debut in style, Simone Zaza popped up on the 50th minute to score what looked likely the decisive goal. Despite this, Frosinone refused to be beaten and were well rewarded as Blanchard headed home in the 92nd minute to share the spoils, leaving the Canarini to return home with a famous point.

Key Battles

Cristiano Ronaldo vs Bartosz Salamon

​Cristiano Ronaldo would have envisioned a blistering start to his Juve career. Disappointingly sent off just 30 minutes into his Champions League debut with the Old Lady – his first red card in 154 Champions League games – the Portuguese superstar is ready and recuperated for Sunday’s trip.
With two Serie A goals to his name and a box of fresh Mercurials, Ronaldo will have his eyes firmly fixed on creating positive headlines this weekend. The calendar gods have been kind on Ronaldo, with Frosinone conceding ten goals in just four matches. It is set up as the perfect revival for I Bianconeri’s star man. However, Poland international Bartosz Salamon will do his utmost best to prevent CR7 from having an easy day’s work. Once of AC Milan, Bartosz has made over 200 senior appearances, including lifting the Serie B title with Cagliari in 2016 where he was viewed as their star player. Appearing to be more committed to the cause then ever, Bartosz tweeted a heartfelt message to the Frosinone faithful and with perhaps the biggest game of the season lurking around the corner, you would expect the Frosinone players to put their all into this one.

Team News:

Ex-Arsenal striker Joel Campbell has returned to full fitness and is available to play, albeit from the bench as Longo is rumoured to be partnering Perica and Ciano due to a more familiar partnership. However, Luca Pafanini, Mirko Gori and Federico Dioniso are all ruled out whilst Danilo Soddimo is doubtful. For Juventus, Massimiliano Allegri is without the suspended Douglas Costa, although the attacker has also picked up an ankle injury. Sami Khedira is also a doubt after leaving the pitch early in Valencia, but with his condition still to be assessed he may yet feature.

Potential Frosinone Lineup: Sportiello; Goldaniga, Salamon, Krajnc; Molinaro, Chibsah, Maiello, Hallfredsson, Zampano; Perica, Ciano.

Potential Juventus Lineup: Szczensy; Sandro, Chiellini, Bonucci, Cuadrado; Pjanic, Can; Mandzukic, Dybala, Bernardeschi; Ronaldo.

Prediction:

Juventus have started the season off in an excellent way. Straight off the back of a 2-0 victory over Valencia after playing for 60 minutes with ten men shows this side has character and resilience. With Ronaldo suspended for the Champions League, expect him to come out all guns blazing here.
In addition, Frosinone have really struggled adapting to life in Serie A, with their sole point coming in a 0-0 draw with Bologna, and are yet to score. Their troubles could continue here and a crushing Juventus win may be on the cards.

My prediction:

Bet Juventus AH (-1.75)  Best odds 1.98

I use this bookmaker

Getafe vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Match Preview

Getafe vs Atlético Madrid predictions for Saturday’s La Liga face off at the Estadio Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. Atlético Madrid are looking for their second La Liga win of the season against a Getafe team who are unbeaten in three.

Getafe welcome Atlético Madrid to the Estadio Coliseum Alfonso Pérez on Saturday, hoping to extend their recent unbeaten run to four matches. Los Colchoneros have yet to kick into gear in 2018/19, though an impressive Champions League away win in Monaco in mid-week should help them shake off their early-season rustiness.Having fought their way to an 8th place finish in 2017/18, Getafe have made great early strides in the new campaign in their attempts to replicate the successes of last season. Los Azulones lost their opening match of 2018/19, though losing to Real Madrid in the Spanish capital was a result that Manager José Bordalás would have expected.From there, Getafe started their league season again, taking seven points from a possible nine in their games against Eibar, Real Valladolid and Sevilla. Getafe’s most recent result, was also their most notable so far. Any win at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium is something to be celebrated and Getafe were understandably proud of their 2-0 victory there.That performance and subsequent result would have had a galvanising effect on the Getafe players ahead of an even tougher test this weekend against last year’s La Liga runners up Atlético Madrid.Atlético haven’t quite been at their efficient best in 2018/19 so far. While it’s not unusual for los Colchoneros to post modest goal scoring figures, they would have still expected to have netted more than three times in four matches against Valencia, Rayo Vallecano, Celta Vigo and Eibar.
Diego Simeone’s men averaged just 1.52 goals a game in La Liga last season, though that average has fallen to 0.75 per ninety minutes in 2018/19. Five points from twelve is not the best way to start a La Liga title tilt, though Atlético did fare better in the first Champions League outing of the season, emerging 2-1 victors from their short trip to play Monaco.With such little travel time involved, fatigue shouldn’t be too much of a factor for Atlético on Saturday. Los Colchoneros have won five of their last six meetings with Getafe and we expect them to extend that good record this weekend.Even at this early stage, Atlético can’t fall too far behind the other top teams in the division. With their excellent head-to-head record in one hand and their determination to put points on the board in the other, Simeon’s men should have enough to dig out three points at Getafe.The contest at the Estadio Coliseum Alfonso Pérez definitely won’t be one for the purists however. All eight of Getafe’s and Atlético’s combined matches in La Liga so far this season finished with under 2.5 goals scored in them. For that reason, we recommend taking the away win & under 2.5 goal combination for Saturday’s fixture.In addition, we’re tipping the second half to have more goals this weekend. All but one of the seven goals scored in Atlético’s La Liga games this season were scored in the second period.Finally, our correct score prediction forecasts a 1-0 win for Atlético Madrid which would be a repeat of the last result between the teams at the same venue in May.

GETAFE VS ATLETICO MADRID STATS:

Getafe have lost their last eight La Liga games versus Atletico de Madrid, with their last win against them in the competition in November 2011 (3-2).
Getafe have failed to score in their last 11 La Liga games against Atletico, the worst ever run of any side against a single opponent in the top-flight.
Under Diego Simeone, against no other side have Atletico have won more La Liga games than they have against Getafe (10 – also v Athletic, Granada and Celta).
Getafe have only lost one of their last five La Liga home games (W2 D2), however that defeat came against Atletico de Madrid back in May (0-1).
Atletico have only won one of their first four games in La Liga this season, their worst tally of wins after the same number of games since 2009/10, when they finished 9th in La Liga.
Getafe have conceded more fouls in league games than any other side within Europe’s top five leagues this season (86), while only West Ham (18) have received more yellow cards than Getafe (17).
Getafe’s Angel Rodriguez has played more La Liga games without scoring against Atletico de Madrid than versus any other side (eight matches, no goals).
Antoine Griezmann has been involved in 13 of Atletico’s last 16 away goals in La Liga (eight goals and five assists).
Atletico striker Diego Costa has scored five goals in his eight La Liga games against Getafe, four with Atletico and one with Rayo Vallecano.
Diego Costa has gone 993 minutes of action without scoring in La Liga (13 league games in a row), his longest goalscoring drought in the competition in terms of minutes played.

GETAFE TEAM NEWS:

Midfielders Markel Bergara, Ignasi Miquel and defenders Djene Dakonam and Mauro Arambarri are all having injuries assessed ahead of the weekend’s game.

ATLETICO MADRID TEAM NEWS:

Attackers Nikola Kalinic and Vitolo aren’t expected to feature for Atlético, while defenders Stefan Savic and Santiago Arias are likely to miss out.

HEAD TO HEAD:

Atlético Madrid have won 5 of their last 6 meetings with Getafe. Getafe didn’t manage to score a single goal in those 6 fixtures.

My prediction:

Bet  Atletico Madrid  to win   Best odds 1.93

I use this bookmaker 

Brighton vs Tottenham prediction, team news and preview

Tottenham travel to Brighton on Saturday having lost three consecutive matches for the first time under manager Mauricio Pochettino.

The match at the Amex Stadium is expected to produce goals. The hosts have scored five times in two home games this season, while all five of Tottenham’s league matches have featured at least three goals.Spurs may be in for a tough evening on the South Coast. The Seagulls were eighth in the home form table last season, securing seven victories from their 19 games. And have already picked up four points from their two home fixtures this term.

A big upset occurred when the two teams met in April 1983. Brighton finished the season bottom of the division, while, despite this defeat, Tottenham finished in fourth position.The match had a bit of everything, goals, red cards and late drama. Spurs had travelled with a depleted team and were missing the likes of Glenn Hoddle and Ossie Ardiles.The away side took the lead midway through the first half with a low 35-yard drive from Graham Roberts. Both teams had a man sent off before Steve Gatting equalised with a left foot toe-poke, with five minutes remaining.Substitute Gerry Ryan then made it two goals in a minute by heading home for a late dramatic winner. The header going past Ray Clemence and a certain Tottenham defender, Chris Hughton.Tottenham’s number one goal keeper Hugo Lloris is still missing through injury, so Michel Vorm is expected to keep his place between the sticks. The Dutchman hasn’t enjoyed his recall to the team, having conceded six goals in three games.Coming up against him will be Brighton striker Glenn Murray. The forward has already netted on four occasions this campaign and will be expecting to add to his tally on Saturday. His goals have proven vital so far, having scored against Fulham and Southampton to secure draws from losing positions and scoring the first at home against Manchester United.

Team News:
The only absentee from Brighton is midfielder Pascal Gross, who will miss out due to an ankle injury. Florin Andone and Jose Izquierdo are both in contention for their first appearances of the season after returning to full fitness.

Tottenham will still be missing Frenchman Hugo Lloris in goal, so Michel Vorm will continue to deputise. Dele Alli and Moussa Sissoko will face late assessments to determine if they have recovered from their respective hamstring and knee injuries.Defenders Toby Alderweireld and Kieran Trippier will return to the squad after being rested in Tuesday’s Champions League defeat to Inter.

Predicted Lineups:
Brighton: Ryan; Bong, Duffy, Dunk, Montoya; Stephens, Bissouma, Knockaert, March; Propper; Murray.
Tottenham: Vorm; Trippier, Vertonghen, Alderweireld, Rose; Dier, Dembele, Eriksen, Alli; Moura, Kane.

Prediction:
Tottenham come into the match needing to find a victory, Manager Mauricio Pochettino has suffered three consecutive defeats for the first time as Spurs boss and will be desperate to not add to that number.Brighton only have one win thus far this season but that came also at the Amex, also in a game they were expected to lose, against Manchester United. Their character has been a positive however, coming back from losing positions to secure draws in the previous two games. And with Murray in form, a draw may be achievable for the Seagulls.

Match Facts:

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Tottenham’s last 6 games (Premier League).
Brighton have conceded at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches (Premier League).
Brighton have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches against Tottenham in all competitions.
Brighton are undefeated in their last 5 home matches (Premier League).
Tottenham are undefeated in their last 5 matches against Brighton in all competitions.

My prediction:

Bet Tottenham AH (-0.75)  Best odds  1.94

Bet here

Championship: Derby – Brentford

Hi everyone,

our last play (Leeds at home vs Preston) was a winning bet, but we should not be satisfied with that bet. The odds went up and we ended with negative Closing Line Value, meaning we could have get a better price for our bet.
My next bet will be from the Championship again. I see value in a game between Derby and Brentford.

Derby, coached by Lampard didn’t start off the new season as they wanted. Losing to Millwall away can be forgiven, losing to Rotherham away and getting demolished 1:4 at home by Leeds definitely not. While they are the 7th best team in the number of goal scoring efforts at home (14.75 average per game), their shot efficiency is only 8.47%, making them the 5th least efficient team in the whole league. Their defence is 6th best in the league if we look at the number of opponent goal scoring efforts allowed (10 average per game). If we look at the goals so far, in average they score 1.25 goals per game at home and concede 1.00 goal per game at home. This is not very relevant but I wanted to put this out here.

Brentford on the other side definitely exceeded my personal expectations for them this season with the way they started this season. They are great both in attack and in defense. Their only loss this season came in a game away at Blackburn from Blackburn’s only shot at the goal. Brentford is a very good away team so far and the statistics prove this too. They are the 2nd best away team at goal scoring efforts created (13.00 average per game), even though their shot efficiency is not that great – 7.69%, 5th worst efficiency among the league in away matches. Their defence is also very solid. They allow the opposition team only 9.50 goal scoring efforts in average per game in away matches, making them the second best team in the league in this aspect. In average, Brentford in their away games scores 1.00 goal and concedes 1.25 goals.

Both teams play 8 games so far this season. Derby with a score of 10:9 and 13 points sits at the 9th position in the league table, while Brentford with a score of 15:7 and 15 points occupies the 3rd place in the league table.

My projected Expected goals for both teams:
Derby: 0.834
Brentford: 1.163

 

Bookie’s odds on over/under:
Under 2.5: 1.94
Over 2.5: 1.96

 

My odds on over/under:
Under 2.5: 1.48
Over 2.5: 3.10

Bet on Under 2.5 @ 1.94

Bet at Bitcoinrush

MLB – Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez) @ Atlanta Braves (Gausman)

This is one of those games, where looking at pitchers ERA only could be wrong. And I like such games, because there is hidden value in ERA number.

So, what I am talking about?

We have two pitchers on the mound where one pitcher has better ERA, but based his performance so far this season, he is not better pitcher. In fact we can expect, that his ERA will go up. Gausman, who will start for Braves is 10-10 to the season with ERA of 3.92. He pitchers 172 innings and has 135 strike outs with whip 1.300 and in lats 3 games his whip went up to 1.53 with ERA of 4.41. Phillies hitters faced him in 83 at bats and posted BA of 0.301

On the other side we have Velasquez, who is 8-11 this season with ERA of 4.53 and if we check his last couple of games and his past performance against Atlanta, he has not good numbers. His last 3 games ERA is 9.82 and he is 0-5 against Atlanta with 3 straight losses this season. So, not really good numbers, but I don’t like to focus on last couple of days or past pitchers performances against any team, because things are changing and it is not recommended to focus on short term results. So, if we check his performance so far, his SIER is better than Gausman’s SIERA. And if we check his strike out ratio, he has been great this season with 155 strike outs in 139 innings. I believe he is playing better, than his ERA shows at this moment.

In fact I think that he is playing slightly better than Gausman and we can expect his ERA going down and be better.

When we talk about those two teams, both teams are nice surprise this season. Honestly if anyone would tell be that both teams would have positive record at this time of the season, I would not believe him. But both teams are playing well and Philadelphia Phillies hold the record of 78-73, while Atlanta Braves 84-86.

Philadelphia Phillies score 4.3 runs per game and when it comes to hitting, they are just around average team in the league (#17 out of 30 teams). Atlanta on the other side scores 4.7 runs per game and are slightly better offensive team than Phillies (#14 out of 30 teams).

But I think the difference today will be made in pitching. Philadelphia has #6 best bullpen in the league, while Braves only #20 in the league. At the start of the game, I think that Velasquez can pitch much better and I also think, that his ERA doesn’t show his true quality. This is why I would expect that his ERA will go down. Secondly, he will also have better bullpen support, because Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the league (#6 out of 30 teams). Atlanta Braves bullpen is just #20.

According to my projections, I think that the odds should be lower on Phillies. I have projected with my betting model, that Phillies will have 52.47% of chance to win this game. And the bookmakers have them as an underdog of +136. With positive EV and positive adjKelly, I think we have a value bet on Phillies today.

LEARN HOW TO USE BETTING MODEL TO PROJECT YOUR OWN LINES

 

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Barcelona vs PSV: Match preview, predictions, team news, betting tips – Champions League 2018/19

Barcelona vs PSV Eindhoven

UEFA Champions League 2018/19

Venue: Camp Nou

Date: Tuesday, 18 September

Kick-off time: 17:55 GMT+1

 

Barcelona, the favorites of Group B, will host the team who is expected to finish on the last place of the group. From the first sight, this is a must-win match for the Catalan side.

Attack and defense form

Barcelona scored 14 goals in their last 4 matches and conceded just 3. That means an average of 3.5 goals scored per match and an average of 0.75 goals conceded per match.  On the other side, PSV scored 21 goals and conceded 4 goals in their last 5 matches. An average of 4.2 goals scored per match and an average of 0.8 goals conceded per match.

At home, Barcelona scored 11 goals and conceded just 2 in the last 2 matches. That is an average of 5.5 goals scored per match and 1 goal conceded per match. PSV scored 14 goals and conceded 4 in their last 4 away matches. An average of 3.5 goals scored per match and 1 goal conceded per match.

Based on the above stats, Barcelona should score 4.15 goals while PSV 3.33 goals. But, Barcelona’s opponents were much tougher, so this is not too relevant.

Besides this, the difference in value between the two teams is very big, Barcelona worths 1.03 billion pounds while PSV just 118 million pounds.

Formations

Barcelona should adopt a classic attacking 4-3-3 with Stegen-Alba, Umtiti, Pique, Roberto-Coutinho, Busquets, Rakitic-Dembele, Suarez, Messi.

PSV should go for a defensive formation 4-2-3-1 with Zoet-Angelino, Viergever, Schwaab, Dumfries-Hendrix, Rosario-Lozano, Pereiro, Bergwijn-Jong.

Coutinho is expected to make his debut in UCL for Barcelona.

Schedule

Barcelona should have no worries about the championship as they have 2 easy matches coming against Girona and Leganes. However, their next UCL match is an away against Tottenham, so this PSV clash should end with a victory if they don’t want to fall behind.

PSV has a derby coming in 5 days against Ajax Amsterdam, their title counter-candidates. This is an added pressure for the Holland side.

Team Stats

Both teams are coming from away wins, Barca at Sociedad(1-2) while PSV in Den Haag(0-7), so a good level of confidence is expected from these sides.

There have been over 2.5 goals in Barcelona’s last 3 UCL games. Blaugrana managed to win their UCL group in the past 11 seasons and the fact that they won all their matches this season prefigurates a similar performance. Also, Barca is unbeaten in the last 26 home matches(24W2D). A formidable streak!

I expect Barcelona to have a fresh midfield line as Busquets and Coutinho were rested at Sociedad.

Eindhoven is in a good form as they won their last 7 matches and scored 11 goals in their last 2 away matches. However, PSV failed to win an away in the Champions League since November 2007.

Betting Prediction

Backing Barcelona would be the main bet, but the odds are extremely low especially as PSV are trespassing a good period. Therefore, I would choose the Total goals markets and the Asian handicap to bet on this match. Here’s my advice:

  1. Barcelona -2 AH at 1.56 odds
  2. Over 4 goals at 2.06 odds

USE THIS LINK TO BET:  https://nitrogensports.eu/r/4981908