Milwaukee Brewers bring Gio Gonzalez to their team and they are serious about playoffs this season. He is one experienced left handed pitcher who can give a lot of value to the team. Despite I don’t think he is among the top pitchers in the game, his experience can be crucial in some moments, especially later if Milwaukee reach playoffs.
Gio Gonzalez played rest of the season for Washington Nationals, with the record 7-11, ERA of 4.57.
San Francisco on the other side will start with Stratton, who is 9-8 to the season with ERA of 4.72. He struck 89 hitters in 120 innings this season and in his last couple of games, he played really well. ERA of 1.77 and whip 0.689 in last 3 games. But of course 3 games are small sample size to make any conclusions and if we compare both pitcher with other ERA-metrics, I don’t give any huge advantage here to Giants. I rank Stratton as league average pitcher and Gio Gonzalez just little below league average pitcher.
But I think the big difference between those two teams are in other parts of the game. First of all, Milwaukee has one of the best bullpens in the league. I rank their bullpen as 4th best in the league and if we check only ERA, they hold it at 3.27 at home. San Francisco bullpen I rank 14th. I give small advantage here to the Brewers.
Brewers also have better hitting team this season. They score 4.5 runs per game (at home 4.6) and I rank their hitting above league average in all categories. I have them 11th in overall hitting, 10th vs RHP and they are also playing well right now (5th best hitting team in last 30 days). In last 9 games, they lost only 2. On the other side San Francisco lost 6 straight games and they are struggling on the road with record of 29-44. They also score less than Milwaukee (3.9 runs) and they will need to face Gio Gonzalez, who is left handed pitcher. Giants score only 3.5 runs versus lefties.
Bookmakers odds and projections
Bookmakers opened the odds of 1.61 on Milwaukee. Based on my betting model, the fair price on Milwaukee should be at around 1.44. In other words, I would expect $44 of profit, if I bet on Milwaukee $100 and of course if they win. Bookmaers would pay me more ($61) and because of that there is small value with Milwaukee Brewers.
I give Milwaukee Brewers with Gonzalez on the mound cca 69.47% of chance to win this game.
Giants lost 4 out of 5 meetings. Giants lost 6 out of last 7 starts and 97 out of 143 games versus winning teams.
Recommended bet and reasons behind it
San Francisco season is probably over. Yes, of course, there is always a chance, but they knew it when they started playing in September and they still collected 6 straight losses in last 6 games. I think they simply don’t have enough quality right now. Posey is injured, Sandoval is injured and they traded Mccutchen to Yankees. Enough said.
On the other side Milwaukee are looking much better and they need to take the advantage in the games against weaker teams. Gio Gonzalez will definitely try to show good effort in Milwaukee in front of his new fans. He pitched the last time on August 29th and he should be well rested too.