Championship: Leeds – Preston

Hi guys,

Championship is still in it’s early stages, yet there are some games where when you look at the odds, you feel there is some value. I got the numbers to back it, so let’s move on to my bet.

Leeds started off the season fairly well. They are the only unbeaten team in the Championship after 7 games, as they won 4 games and drew 3 of them, with an overall score of 15:5.
If we look at Leeds home games, they are only the 11th best team at home when we look at the average amount of goal scoring attempts (13.33). Their shot conversion rate is 12,5%, making them the 6th best team in the league (in home games). Their defense is much better compared to the rest of the league, as they allow only 9 goal scoring opportunities on average for the enemy team when playing at home, making them the second best team in the league from this point of view. My number of Expected Goals for Leeds is 1.584.

If we look at Preston, they have a terrible start to the season. They haven’t even scored a goal away from home yet. They are occupying the second to last place in the table and the only bright spot in their season was a win in Carabao Cup at Elland Road (Leeds stadium) 0:2. From the attacking point of view, they create in average 8.67 goal scoring opportunities when playing away from home, making them the 3rd worst team in the league from this aspect. Their shot conversion away from home sits at 0% (since they haven’t scored a goal away from home yet) from 26 attempted shots. Their defense is a little bit sweeter story for them compared to the rest of the league, as they allow in average 12.3 goal scoring opportunities for the hosting team, making them the 9th best team in the league in this aspect. My number of Expected Goals for Preston is 0.290.

Bookmaker’s odds:
Leeds: 1.88
Draw: 3.51
Preston: 4.71

My odds:
Leeds: 1.42
Draw: 4.30
Preston: 15.69

It is actually mind baffling, seeing the odds. A little context about the injuries.
Leeds will be most likely missing Gaetano Berardi, a centre-back that played in the previous 6 matches. A huge blow for Leeds will be also the absence of Kemar Roofe, their attacking midfielder, who scored 4 goals and assisted 2 more so far this season. Another midfielder, Pablo Hernandez will be also missing. So far he scored 3 goals and assisted another 2 in 5 matches this season.

Given the absence of these players, the odds make a lot more sense. However, it is still hard to not see value on Leeds’ side.

 

Leeds to win @ 1.88

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