our last play (Leeds at home vs Preston) was a winning bet, but we should not be satisfied with that bet. The odds went up and we ended with negative Closing Line Value, meaning we could have get a better price for our bet.
My next bet will be from the Championship again. I see value in a game between Derby and Brentford.
Derby, coached by Lampard didn’t start off the new season as they wanted. Losing to Millwall away can be forgiven, losing to Rotherham away and getting demolished 1:4 at home by Leeds definitely not. While they are the 7th best team in the number of goal scoring efforts at home (14.75 average per game), their shot efficiency is only 8.47%, making them the 5th least efficient team in the whole league. Their defence is 6th best in the league if we look at the number of opponent goal scoring efforts allowed (10 average per game). If we look at the goals so far, in average they score 1.25 goals per game at home and concede 1.00 goal per game at home. This is not very relevant but I wanted to put this out here.
Brentford on the other side definitely exceeded my personal expectations for them this season with the way they started this season. They are great both in attack and in defense. Their only loss this season came in a game away at Blackburn from Blackburn’s only shot at the goal. Brentford is a very good away team so far and the statistics prove this too. They are the 2nd best away team at goal scoring efforts created (13.00 average per game), even though their shot efficiency is not that great – 7.69%, 5th worst efficiency among the league in away matches. Their defence is also very solid. They allow the opposition team only 9.50 goal scoring efforts in average per game in away matches, making them the second best team in the league in this aspect. In average, Brentford in their away games scores 1.00 goal and concedes 1.25 goals.
Both teams play 8 games so far this season. Derby with a score of 10:9 and 13 points sits at the 9th position in the league table, while Brentford with a score of 15:7 and 15 points occupies the 3rd place in the league table.
My projected Expected goals for both teams:
Bookie’s odds on over/under:
Under 2.5: 1.94
Over 2.5: 1.96
My odds on over/under:
Under 2.5: 1.48
Over 2.5: 3.10
Bet on Under 2.5 @ 1.94
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