This is one of those games, where looking at pitchers ERA only could be wrong. And I like such games, because there is hidden value in ERA number.
So, what I am talking about?
We have two pitchers on the mound where one pitcher has better ERA, but based his performance so far this season, he is not better pitcher. In fact we can expect, that his ERA will go up. Gausman, who will start for Braves is 10-10 to the season with ERA of 3.92. He pitchers 172 innings and has 135 strike outs with whip 1.300 and in lats 3 games his whip went up to 1.53 with ERA of 4.41. Phillies hitters faced him in 83 at bats and posted BA of 0.301
On the other side we have Velasquez, who is 8-11 this season with ERA of 4.53 and if we check his last couple of games and his past performance against Atlanta, he has not good numbers. His last 3 games ERA is 9.82 and he is 0-5 against Atlanta with 3 straight losses this season. So, not really good numbers, but I don’t like to focus on last couple of days or past pitchers performances against any team, because things are changing and it is not recommended to focus on short term results. So, if we check his performance so far, his SIER is better than Gausman’s SIERA. And if we check his strike out ratio, he has been great this season with 155 strike outs in 139 innings. I believe he is playing better, than his ERA shows at this moment.
In fact I think that he is playing slightly better than Gausman and we can expect his ERA going down and be better.
When we talk about those two teams, both teams are nice surprise this season. Honestly if anyone would tell be that both teams would have positive record at this time of the season, I would not believe him. But both teams are playing well and Philadelphia Phillies hold the record of 78-73, while Atlanta Braves 84-86.
Philadelphia Phillies score 4.3 runs per game and when it comes to hitting, they are just around average team in the league (#17 out of 30 teams). Atlanta on the other side scores 4.7 runs per game and are slightly better offensive team than Phillies (#14 out of 30 teams).
But I think the difference today will be made in pitching. Philadelphia has #6 best bullpen in the league, while Braves only #20 in the league. At the start of the game, I think that Velasquez can pitch much better and I also think, that his ERA doesn’t show his true quality. This is why I would expect that his ERA will go down. Secondly, he will also have better bullpen support, because Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the league (#6 out of 30 teams). Atlanta Braves bullpen is just #20.
According to my projections, I think that the odds should be lower on Phillies. I have projected with my betting model, that Phillies will have 52.47% of chance to win this game. And the bookmakers have them as an underdog of +136. With positive EV and positive adjKelly, I think we have a value bet on Phillies today.