San Francisco (Stratton) @ Milwaukee Brewers (Gonzalez)

Milwaukee Brewers bring Gio Gonzalez to their team and they are serious about playoffs this season. He is one experienced left handed pitcher who can give a lot of value to the team. Despite I don’t think he is among the top pitchers in the game, his experience can be crucial in some moments, especially later if Milwaukee reach playoffs.

Gio Gonzalez played rest of the season for Washington Nationals, with the record 7-11, ERA of 4.57.

San Francisco on the other side will start with Stratton, who is 9-8 to the season with ERA of 4.72. He struck 89 hitters in 120 innings this season and in his last couple of games, he played really well. ERA of 1.77 and whip 0.689 in last 3 games. But of course 3 games are small sample size to make any conclusions and if we compare both pitcher with other ERA-metrics, I don’t give any huge advantage here to Giants. I rank Stratton as league average pitcher and Gio Gonzalez just little below league average pitcher.

But I think the big difference between those two teams are in other parts of the game. First of all, Milwaukee has one of the best bullpens in the league. I rank their bullpen as 4th best in the league and if we check only ERA, they hold it at 3.27 at home. San Francisco bullpen I rank 14th. I give small advantage here to the Brewers.

Brewers also have better hitting team this season. They score 4.5 runs per game (at home 4.6) and I rank their hitting above league average in all categories. I have them 11th in overall hitting, 10th vs RHP and they are also playing well right now (5th best hitting team in last 30 days). In last 9 games, they lost only 2. On the other side San Francisco lost 6 straight games and they are struggling on the road with record of 29-44. They also score less than Milwaukee (3.9 runs) and they will need to face Gio Gonzalez, who is left handed pitcher. Giants score only 3.5 runs versus lefties.

Bookmakers odds and projections

Bookmakers opened the odds of 1.61 on Milwaukee. Based on my betting model, the fair price on Milwaukee should be at around 1.44. In other words, I would expect $44 of profit, if I bet on Milwaukee $100 and of course if they win. Bookmaers would pay me more ($61) and because of that there is small value with Milwaukee Brewers.

I give Milwaukee Brewers with Gonzalez on the mound cca 69.47% of chance to win this game.

Interesting trends:

Giants lost 4 out of 5 meetings. Giants lost 6 out of last 7  starts and 97 out of 143 games versus winning teams.

Recommended bet and reasons behind it

San Francisco season is probably over. Yes, of course, there is always a chance, but they knew it when they started playing in September and they still collected 6 straight losses in last 6 games. I think they simply don’t have enough quality right now. Posey is injured, Sandoval is injured and they traded Mccutchen to Yankees. Enough said.

On the other side Milwaukee are looking much better and they need to take the advantage in the games against weaker teams. Gio Gonzalez  will definitely try to show good effort in Milwaukee in front of his new fans. He pitched the last time on August 29th and he should be well rested too.

Play Milwaukee Brewers at 1.55 at Bitcoinrush

Bitcoin-sports-betting-IPL-728X90

Cardiff vs Arsenal : Quick Match Preview

Arsenal can finally realize back to back victories as they meet the newly promoted Cardiff. The Bluebirds have 3 hard matches coming against Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea, so they can soon find themselves in the relegation zone.

Motivation

Cardiff need points to get further away from the red zone while Arsenal will aim to close up the gap between them and the top teams of EPL. Unai Emery has reasons to be concerned in this matter. 9 points are splitting The Gunners from the first placed team.

Formations

The Bluebirds main target is to defend and maybe smudge something on the counter-attack, so a 4-1-4-1 style is the one for mister Neil Warnock. On the other side, Arsenal will probably stick with the 4-2-3-1 which gave good results in their 3-1 victory against West Ham.

Head 2 Head

  • Arsenal won both of the recent EPL meetings and kept clean sheets as well
  • Unai Emery’s men scored at least 2 goals in last 3 meetings

Squad changes

Arsenal will benefit from the comeback of their star player, Mesut Ozil, after the German international player missed last weekend’s action due to illness.

Warnock’s men will miss their right wing, Mendez-Laing, with Callum Paterson and Hoilett pushing for a start.

Betting Advice

Arsenal are in good spirits as they got their first victory last weekend. They performed well against Chelsea and today they should easily find their way to the victory. Cardiff failed to score in the new season so far. Warnock has a bad record against Arsenal with 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses. Besides this, The Bluebirds struggled even against a 10 men Newcastle side, so The Gunners should prove too powerful.

  • Arsenal to win at 1.57 odds