NHL – Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

Bookmakers odds and my projections:

Most bookmakers opened this game in huge Toronto’s favour, which makes sense, because we have on one side very good team this season and on the other side we have struggling Montreal, that miss couple of important players.

Public will be on Toronto and current odds are more than -200 on them. I made projections for myself and my math model gives better chances to Toronto as well, but nut such a big chance. I give Toronto around 55.33% of chance to win this game and because of that, I have them at -124 / 1.81. On the other side I give Montreal 44.67% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Habs are +124 / 2.24.

Many injuries and open questions on both sides

This game can be very tricky from sports betting perspective and I would be especially careful with Toronto tonight, because if you bet on Maple Leafs, you get much lower price and they are playing without their best player Matthews. They score a lot, but they also receive a lot of goals recently.

Montreal on the other side is also playing without couple of injured players and some of them are questionable today. But they are playing most of the time without their most important players anyway. Montreal lost 6 out of last 7 games. Yes, this is true, but let’s check who they faced: Boston, NJ, Florida, Tampa Bay, CBJ, Dallas and Pittsburgh. All those teams are above league average teams, all those teams are in playoffs and most of them are the best teams in the league. So, they had pretty tough schedule.

This is a derby and Canadiens have great success against Toronto in recent meetings

This is a Canadian derby and Montreal is 7-0 in last 7 meetings in Toronto. They also beat them in last 20 out of 27 games. And I think that this game will be another very excited game, where any team can win. Definitely I think that the odds are little bit too big. Despite Habs are missing couple of players, players usually step up in those kind of games.

Play Montreal Canadiens at 2.88

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Udinese x Sassuolo

Following my numbers, Sassuolo should be in a better position here. My odds are almost reverse to bookies, so it seems like a nice value bet.


My expected goals

UDI x SASS 0,97×1,68. My odds on Sass 1,81, bookies 3,61.

According to bookies and my odds, Kelly adjusted stake is 3,36%. There should be also value in betting on Udinese to no score. But the higher value in betting on S. win, so I´m choosing this bet.

Bet on Cloudbet


Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar



BEL: Oostende – Mons Hainaut

Hey guys!

Today, my bet will be from the Belgian basketball league in a match between Oostende and Mons Hainaut.

Bookie’s lines:
Oostende: -14.5
Mons Hainaut: +14.5
Totals: 153.5

Oostende are comfortably sitting in the 1st place in the league with a 20-0 record and +419 point difference. They are on a different level compared to the rest of the league, especially from a defensive point of view. At home, they concede fewer points that the league average by 17.5 and score more by 4.5. When they play at home, they beat their opponents in average by 26.5 points. In their last home game against Mons Hainaut they won 58 points, in December last year.

Monst Hainaut on the other side has mixed results. They can ofter turn up and win against good teams. They are sitting in the 5th place with the record 11-9 and -37 point difference. If we look at their away games, they are 4-6 and -73 point difference. Away from home, they score fewer than the league average by 0.5 and concede more by 2.5.

My projected lines:
Oostende: -29.5
Mons Hainaut: +29.5
Totals: 147.5

Play Oostende -14.5 @ 1.87

Bet at Cloudbet

EUR: Unicaja Malaga – Panathinaikos

Hey guys!

Today I will look at the European basketball league (Euroleague) to find a value bet. The bet I chose is from the match between Unicaja Málaga (11th) and Panathinaikos (7th).

Bookie’s lines:
Malaga: +2.5
Panathinaikos: -2.5
Totals: 155.5

Unicaja Malaga are 7-5 at home with +38 point difference. They score a little bit fewer points at home than the league average, but also concede fewer points by the same margin. They are much stronger at home than on the road, which is nothing unusual. When they played at home, they beat the likes of Maccabi Tel Aviv, Real Madrid, Olimpia Milan and Khimki.

On the other side, we have Panathinaikos. They are one of the worst road teams in the league. Their record is 3-9 with -101 point difference. On top of that, they are on a 5 game losing streak away from home. They score fewer points than the league average away from home by 9, and concede fewer by 3. Another information, which I want to include in this write-up / analysis is, that one of my friends, who is a big fan of Euroleague told me recently, that Panathinaikos are in a trouble. They have some internal issues, their owner is considering leaving the league. Sounds like a chaos to me. This factor is not included in my projected lines, consider it as a little side information.

My projected lines:
Malaga: -7.5
Panathinaikos: 7.5
Totals: 146.5

Play Unicaja Malaga +2.5 @ 1.986

Bet at Nitrogensports


NHL – Detroit Red Wings at Los Angeles Kings

Detroit Red Wings lost 7 straight games and today they will face Los Angeles Kings as a huge underdog of +200. But is this really fair price or they are little bit underrated here?

Detroit Red Wings score 2.6 goals per game and they allow 3.1 goals per game. On the road 13-21 to the season and they are 0-6 this month.

Los Angeles on the other side are 38-32 to the season, 2.9 goals per game and 2.5 goals per game allowed.

My projected lines:

I have projected, that Los Angeles Kings still should be favourite here and they will have better chance to win this game. I give them around 55% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Los Angeles Kings are at 1.83 (-120).

Bookmakers on the other side offer us the odds of around +200, which is I think little bit too much. Detroit has very good recent record against Los Angeles Kings. They beat them in 35 out of 52 meetings and they beat them in 15 out of last 22 meetings in Los Angeles. Games between those two teams can be always very interesting and I believe, that this game will be one close game too.

We still don’t have goalies confirmation, but I believe that both teams will start with their first goalies.

Play Detroit Red Wings 2.99 / +199

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POL: Krosno – Starogard Gdanski

Hey guys!

Today, I decided to look at the polish basketball league to make a bet in a match between Krosno and Starogard Gdanski.

Bookie’s lines:
Krosno: +2.5
Starogard Gdanski: -2.5
Totals: 160.5

Firstly, let me say, that there is a team in the polish league that has been disqualified from the league, so all their matches are 0-20 losses. For that reason, I will completely ignore this team in this league.

Krosno are the 2nd worst home team in the league, with a record of 4-6 and -80 point difference. At home, they score fewer points than the league average by 5.5. They concede more than the league average by 6 points. They are 1-4 in their last 5 matches overall, so they are not doing very well.

On the other side, we have Starogard Gdanski. They are 1-4 in their last 5 away games, but all of those games were against an opponent from the upper side of the league table. They are 5-5 in away games, with +21 point difference. They are looking forward to the remaining away games against easy opponents, where they need to win, because they are fighting for the spot in the play-offs. In their home games, they score more than the league average by 2 points and concede fewer by 3.

My projected lines:
Krosno: 13.5
Starogard Gdanski: -13.5
Totals: 163.5

Play Starogard Gdanski -2.5 @ 1.890

Bet at Cloudbet


NHL – Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

Colorado Avalanche beat Minnesota couple of days ago by 7-1 at home and they will play another game, but in Minnesota. That was pretty big loss for Minnesota, because they are playing very good ice hockey right now, winning 8 out of last 11 games and they also have very good record in recent meetings against Colorado.

But when we talk about Colorado Avalanche, we must understand one thing and this is their home advantage. At home they are very strong team and because of very strong home performances, they are in a wild card spot at this moment. At home, they are 24-9, but when they play on the road, they are just 12-23.

Minnesota on the other side is very strong home team and they will be definitely motivated after humiliating loss by 7-1 in Colorado. But we also must understand that they played 2 road games back then and that one in Colorado was a B2B game. Games without a rest for players are always tougher.

Minnesota score 3.4 goals per game and allow 2.2 goals per game at home. Colorado scores 2.7 goals per game and allows 3.6 goals per game on the road.

According to my projections, I give 67.77% of chance to Minnesota today and my fair odds are at around 1.48. Bookmakers offer us the odds of around 1.60 and I think anything in this range is a value on Minnesota.

Note also, that Minnesota beat Colorado at home in last 10 out of 12 games.

Play Minnesota Wild at 1.60 / -167

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ISR: Maccabi Ashdod – Ironi Nahariya

Hello, everyone!

My recommended bet today will be from the Israeli basketball league. It’s a match between Maccabi Ashdod (6th) and Ironi Nahariya (11th).

Bookie’s lines:
Maccabi Ashdod: -3.5
Ironi Nahariya: +3.5
Totals: 165.5

Maccabi Ashdod are on a 6-game long winning streak at home, and they are trying to secure a spot into the play-offs. In average, they score 5 more points at home than the league average and concede fewer by 1. In their last 5 home games, they beat their opponent by 13 points in average.

Ironi Nahariya are in a really bad place now. They lost their last 9 away games. They are the worst away team in the league with the record of 1-8 and -59 point difference. In average, they score fewer points in their away games by 3.5 and concede more by 2.5 points. In their last 5 away games, they lost by 9.5 points in average.

The only thing going for Ironi Nahariya is, that they haven’t lost to Maccabi Ashdod since 2016, and they haven’t lost on their home ground ever.

My projected lines:
Maccabi Ashdod: -13
Ironi Nahariya: +13
Totals: 167

Play Maccabi Ashdod -4 @ 1.902

Bet at Nitrogensports

Cagliari x Lazio

Lazion should be a bigger favorite here, so nice value in betting on visitors.


Expected goals

1,38 x 3,08


Projected odds

7,11 6,88 1,4

Bookie odds

5,08 3,9 1,7


Lazio win, odds 1,7, kelly adj. 3,06%


Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar


Crotone x Sampdoria

Another bet following my model. Seems like nice value bet for Sampdoria. For full numbers, read this article


Expected goals

0,92 x 2,02

Projected odds

6,12 4,82 1,59

Bookies odds

3,21 3,26 2,35


Sampdoria win, odds 2,35, kelly adj. 3,54%


Bet on Cloudbet

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar