Dota 2: PSG.LGD – Team Liquid

Hello, everyone.

We had a very good yesterday in Dota 2 Epicenter tournament as we hit both our plays. I found some value in the upper bracket finals between PSG.LGD and Team Liquid.

As I mentioned in my previous write-ups, all the tier 1 teams are very competitive right now. Most of the teams can beat each other and that’s why it is a good idea to bet on underdogs. I think the bookies are not reacting to it in time and are taking the previous results into account too much. The days of Team Liquid / Virtus Pro / Team Secret dominance are over and more and more teams are knocking on the door of TOP3, maybe we should even call it TOP 5 teams in the world. One of those teams are PSG.LGD, previously known as LGD or LGD Gaming. They signed a sponsorship with Paris St. Germain esports organization, so now we have Neymar and Cavani leading the team (that was a joke).

I think the latest data and the latest numbers from the games are way more relevant than the historical data, because the game changes very quickly. There are minor and sometimes even major updates every 14 days and teams need to adjust to them very quickly. It looks like Team Liquid has acclimated very well to the most recent changes and they are having very good results.

These two teams already met in the group stages and Team Liquid won 2-1. PSG.LGD will now have a chance for revenge and they are coming off of a win against Virtus Pro (my bet from yesterday).

Team Liquid also advanced into the upper bracket finals, but they had to go up against OG – a team that I can’t find the right words for. They are dominating the scene in european qualifiers (the best teams are invited straight to the event most of the times) but when they go up against the TOP teams, they have no chance, and it has been like that for the whole season. My point is, that this wasn’t really a test for Team Liquid, and especially in game 1 which they have played today, if they had played against a better team, they would have probably lost that game – because of picks, lane matchups, early game advantage, etc. However OG couldn’t manage to turn an insanely good early game into a real game advantage and Team Liquid beat them.

One last thing about PSG.LGD. It is known for years now, that every iteration of LGD team had come to a rise before The International, and it looks like they are on the rise again. They were the finalists of DAC 2018 2 weeks ago (which they lost to Mineski 3-2) and are continually showing an improvement.

The game is being played on Saturday, May 5th at 6pm (CET). The schedule can be moved, though, based on how the earlier games finish.

My projected win probabilities:
PSG.LGD: 48% (odds: 2.08)
Team Liquid: 52% (odds: 1.92)

Bookie’s odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.478
Team Liquid: 1.521

Play PSG.LGD @ 2.478

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: PSG.LGD – Virtus Pro

Hey guys,

for the first time I will have 2 bets in one day. We are still at the Epicenter XL Dota 2 tournament in Moscow in the first round of play-offs. Now in a game between PSG.LGD and Virtus Pro. The game starts on Friday May 4th at 6pm CET.

As I said in the article of a previous bet, favorites should not be favorized so heavily, because in the last couple of months the Dota 2 scene got very competitive and most of the teams can beat each other. That is the case with PSG.LGD and Virtus Pro too, in my opinion.

PSG.LGD are the powerhouse of China. They got second place at DAC 2 weeks ago and they are hungry for success. They have been struggling in the first part of the season but since new year and after some roster shuffle they are back and stronger than ever in the last 2 years, in my opinion.

Virtus Pro are already qualified for The International so they are playing “only for the money” I guess. But they are still showing dominance on the scene but as I said, top teams can beat each other anytime. So there is a value with underdogs most of the time. One other thing is, PSG.LGD eliminated Virtus Pro 2 weeks ago in the DAC play-offs as they won 2-1.

The odds on my bet are already dropping (from 2.86).

My projected odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.06
Virtus Pro: 1.94

Bookie odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.597
Virtus Pro: 1.478

Play PSG.LGD @ 2.597

Bet at Nitrogensports

 

Dota 2: Mineski – Team Secret

Hey guys,

we are looking forward to a very busy month when it comes to Dota 2 tournaments. Currently, there is an ongoing tournament in Moscow called Epicenter XL and I think there is a value with a bet in a match between Mineski and Team Secret. The game is played on Friday 4th of May, at 1pm CET.

The group stages are all settled, and both teams are heading into the lower bracket with the same record from their respective groups – 2:3 on series, 6:7 on matches (Best of 3 series).

In every other season I would say, that we are approaching the end of the season and The International is near. However, that is not true in this season’s case, because there are still a lot of tournaments during the next 2 months and The International takes place at the end of August. If we reflect on the whole season now, we can say, that we had 3 very strong teams in the first half of the season – Virtus Pro, Team Liquid and Team Secret. Virtus Pro already secured themselves an invite to The International and Team Secret are closely behind them. However, in 2018, many other teams started stepping up and the triumvirate of these strong teams has vanished. Now a lot of teams are on the doorstep of being in the TOP 3 teams in the world, including Vici Gaming, PSG.LGD, Mineski. Also, some of the weaker teams progressed and are playing much better, like OG, paiN Gaming, VGJ Thunder, OpTic Gaming.

I can say with a confidence, that the scene is very competitive right now and most of the teams can beat each other. For that reason I think it is very unwise to set the odds in a huge favor of the favorized team. This is also the example in the bet which I had chosen.

Mineski are the Dota 2 Asia Championship (DAC) winners. They had beaten PSG.LGD in a Best of 5 series and became the reigning champions. They went 6-1 in the groupstages and then fought their way through the Upper Bracket beating OpTic Gaming 2-0, Vici Gaming 2-1, PSG.LGD 2-0 and then in the rematch in the grand finals 3-2. They didn’t have the best start into this tournament and barely qualified for the play-offs, but if they can sort themselves out and get out of this slump, they can win this tournament – they are the winners of the last Major tournament, after all.

On the other side, we have Team Secret. I think this team is favorized way too much. They won some tournaments in this season, but in 2018 they only won Dreamleague minor, beating Fnatic 3-0 in the finals. They didn’t really had a strong competition in that tournament and if we look at the games they have against TOP teams, they struggle. In ESL One Katowice they went into the play-offs as the second seeded team as they suffered a loss in the group stage finals against Fnatic 2-1. Right after that, they had been eliminated by Team Liquid with a 2-1 loss. At Bucharest Major, they secured themselves a spot in play-offs after going 3-1 in a swiss format group, beating paiN Gaming, OpTic Gaming, Complexity Gaming and losing to VGJ Thunder. They got eliminated in the first round of play-offs by Newbee as they lost 2-0. At DAC they went 4-3 in the group stages and were seeded into a breakout bracket of play-offs. They lost 2-0 to Vici Gaming and got eliminated. My point is, they have atrocious record at big events in 2018. They don’t look so dominating as they looked in December when they were beating VP and Team Liquid convincingly. Maybe they got figured out, maybe they are saving strats, but I don’t trust them. They even lost to Na’Vi in the group stages at this Epicenter XL tournament.

My projected odds:
Mineski: 1.78
Team Secret: 2.28

Bookie odds:
Mineski: 2.29
Team Secret: 1.605

Play Mineski @ 2.291

Bet at Nitrogensports 

 

 

MLB – Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) at Baltimore Orioles (Gausman)

This is the last game in this series between Baltimore and Cleveland. Indians lost first game, but then they outscored Baltimore in next two games by 11-3.

Bookmakers opened the odds at around 3.01 on Baltimore and those odds were simply too high and the value on Baltimore if you could catch that number was great. But despite line movement, I think the price around 2.5 is the last price, where I think there is still small value on Orioles.

Baltimore will start with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.57 and 19 strike outs in 21 innings. On the other side we have Carrasco, who is 3-0 to the season with ERA of 2.6 and 21 strike outs in 27 innings.

According to my numbers, we have pitching advantage on Indians side, but with Gausman we also have above league average pitcher and if we check his numbers against Cleveland he is 2-1, ERA 1.93.

Both teams are stuggling offensively so far this season. I would expect especially from Indians to score more, but they score only 3.6 runs per game with BA of 0.219.

Baltimore on the other side score 3.3 runs per game with batting average of 0.215 and we have pretty same offensive numbers on both teams.

I still rank Cleveland higher than Baltimore and Carrasco as a better pitcher than Gausman, but I think that the odds are little bit to big on a home team. I have projected with my betting model, that Baltimore should be underdog of around +116 and because of that there is a small value in the odds of around +150 or more.

Play Baltimore +156 at Bitcoinrush 

PL: Stoke x Burnley

Its time for another bet on Premier League. Stoke is fighting for survival in Premer League. There is a lot of reasons for this. Potters lost their last 3 home matches and were able to win in last 10 games. They are toothless in the offense, scored only 3 goals in last 6 matches. This low number of goals could be easily expected, as they are worst in Inbox shots (26) and created only 5 big chances (only WHU created less – 4). It´s even worse in defense. Conceded 10 goals, 11,1 xGoals, 64 Inbox shots and 17 big chances. To sum up, Stoke is playing very, very bad in last weeks.

 

Burnley, on the other hand, is playing very solid in last weeks. Burnley squad has some limitations (match against Chelsea show up that Burnley can be overplayed by the quality opposition), but it should be no big deal against pathetic Stoke.

Clarets are fighting Arsenal for European League spot. After lost to Chelsea in midweek game, they have to win today, if they are serious about it. It will be not an easy job, but odds are just too high. The lower number of goals is expected as well.

Stoke x Burnley, Burnley to win
Odds 3,46 (Cloudbet)

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MLB – Colorado (Freeland) at Pittsburgh (Kuhl)

Colorado beat Pittsburgh in first two games, despite they are playing on the road and despite they are playing without their key offensive player Arenado, who is serving suspension. Today they will face Chad Kuhl.

Chad Kuhl is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.74 and the the best game he played this season was against Cincinnati at home, where he struck out 7 hitters in 5 innings.

Colorado on the other side will start with Freeland, a left handed pitcher, who is 0-2 to the season with ERA of 4.50.

According to my rankings and my betting model, I don’t give any huge pitching advantage to any team here. But I like Pittsburgh because of better offense so far. And if we take into account, that Pittsburgh will try to avoid sweep and Colorado will miss one of their best offensive players, I think Pittsburgh is the play according to current offered odds.

Pittsburgh score 5.2 runs per game with batting average of 0.259. Colorado on the other side score 3.9 runs per game with batting average of 0.215. Note also that Pittsburgh Pirates are perfect 7-0 this season in day games.

Play Pittsburgh 1.86 (best odds at Bitcoinrush)

PL: Newcastle x Arsenal

Arsenal defense is in big troubles. They made a huge amount of big defensive errors (7 in last 6 matches, 2nd worst in Premier League) and conceded 51 shots from in box area in this matches. Only few teams were weaker in these crucial defensive statistics. When we take a closer look, Arsenal faced teams like Stoke, Southampton, and Watford in last weeks. So these statistics should be much lower.Their main weakness is in central zone, they conceded 23 chances in this area. One more thing. Arsenal played hard match in Moscow three days ago and players should be tired.

Newcastle offensive is not full of great strikers but is working fine. Gayle in on the top of most offensive statistics (except of goal scoring) in last weeks. He is third rated striker is expected goals involvement (only Aubemaynag and Murray are better) and produced 11 in box shots in last 6 matches. Ayoze Perez, his partner from attack, has not so cool numbers but scored 2 in last two matches, so he should feel very good. Kenedy, young Brazilian on loan from Chelsea, is also making huge positive impact on Newcatle offensive.

If you play Daily Fantasy Sports (for example on Fanteam), both strikers and Kenedy are also an interesting option.

Bet on home side is a viable option as well, but for this BitcoinBettors pick, I choose to bet on Newcastle score 1,5+, 2,37 odds on CloudBet.

Pick: Newcastle to score 2 or more goals, 2,37 odds, Bookmaker Cloudbet

For more info about me, please visit my blog www.frisbald.com. 

MLS: Sporting Kansas City – Seattle Sounders

Hi guys!

It might be a little early for betting on the MLS league, but I really like this bet because I think there is some value. I will not share my projected odds for this game, because there is just not enough numbers yet (Seattle played only 3 games) and I think it is pointless to completely rely on them. I will have some other reasons to make this bet, though.

Seattle Sounders will be missing Clint Dempsey, among other players, probably the best american soccer player in the recent years. He played only 37 minutes this season and then he got sent off. He also missed the opening game of the season for Seattle and this might be one of the reasons why are the Sounders without a point so far and with 5 conceded goals and none scored. Interesting fact is, that none of those 3 games see Seattle finishing the match with 11 players on the pitch. Their centre back, Tony Alfaro was sent off against LAFC, Dempsey got a red card after 37 minutes against FC Dallas and their right back, Kelvin Leerdam enjoyed only 40 minutes of game time in their home game vs Montreal.

Sporting Kansas City had a very good start to the new season, if we don’t count their opening game, which they lost 0-2 at home vs New York City. Even in that game, they were a little bit unlucky. I will also mention, that this team loves to attack. In average, they have 17 goal scoring attempts per game. In general, I think MLS is a very interesting league to watch, teams love to attack, and because of that we see a lot of goal scoring attempts on both sides, lot of goals, etc.
Kansas City are leading the Western Conference with 13 points from 6 matches, losing once, drawing once and winning 4 games. They scored the most goals in the league so far – 12, but they also conceded a lot – 9. If they can tighten the defence a little bit, they can become the title contenders this season.

 

Play Sporting Kansas City @ 1.74 / -136

Bet at BitcoinRush

 

 

NHL – Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins

This is the second game of the series in NHL playoffs and anyone who watched the first game, when Boston beat Toronto, knows, that the game was much closer. The final result was 5-1, but the result doesn’t show the true picture about the game at least most of the game. Toronto had couple of great chances and Boston was lucky at the result 1-1, that they didn’t receive a goal. If Toronto would score in that time, the game could go in different direction. What I want to say is that Toronto showed one more time, that they can play against Boston. And I believe they will show this today too.

Boston and Toronto met 4 times in a regular season and Toronto beat Boston in 3 of them. They also beat Boston in 7 of 9 games.

Bookmakers have odds of more than 2.50 on Toronto and I think we have some nice value here. I have projected Toronto at around 2.1 and I still give them less than 50% of chance, but when we talk as a sports bettors I think that the value is on their side.

Play Toronto -153

The best odds you can get are at Bitcoinrush. They accept US players.