Soccer. Romania Liga 1. Concordia Chiajna vs Sepsi OSK Prediction

Concordia Chiajna and Sepsi meet at Stadionul Concordia, in a match for the 8th round of the Liga I. The recent head‑to‑head record favours the home team, since they have a record of 2 wins and 2 draws in the last 4 matches. The last head‑to‑head between these two teams was played on 07‑05‑2018, and ended in a (0‑2) win by Concordia Chiajna. In this match the home advantage may play an important role, as both teams present significant differences between home and away performances.
Analysis of Concordia Chiajna
The home team is currently in the 13th position of the league, with 7 points won, after 2 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses. In the penultimate match, they lost in a home match against Astra, by (0‑3). In the last match, they lost in an away match against CSM Iaşi, by (3‑0). This is a team that usually gets better results in away matches than at home, since in the last 30 matches they register 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in away matches, with 16 goals scored and 19 conceded; against 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses at their stadium, with 15 goals scored and 20 conceded. In the last 10 home matches Concordia Chiajna has won 2, tied 4 and lost 4. They haven’t been very strong defensively, since they have suffered goals in 5 of the last 7 matches, but their offense has scored frequently, since they have scored goals in 5 of the last 7 matches for this competition. there are 2 periods that stand out in the last 13 home matches for all competitions: they have scored 5 of their 12 goals between minutes (61’‑75′); they have suffered 6 of their 17 goals between minutes (76’‑90′).

The team does not arrive at this match living the best moment, because it does not win for two rounds by the championship. At home has alternated between a victory, a draw and a defeat. In these conditions presented an average of 1 goal scored and 1.33 goals conceded, demonstrating in this way an average income in its sectors. In this duel the team should be organized in the 4-2-3-1, thus seeking defensive organization and the exits for the attack through the sides. The team’s highlight is the striker P. Batin with two goals scored.
Analysis of Sepsi
The away team is currently in the 5th position of the league, with 11 points won, after 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. In the penultimate match, they tied in an away match against Botoşani, by (0‑0). In the last match, they won in a home match against Dunărea Călăraşi, by (1‑0). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in away matches, with 14 goals scored and 20 conceded; against 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses at their stadium, with 19 goals scored and 11 conceded. In the last 4 away league matches Sepsi has a record of 2 draws and 2 losses, so they have won 2 points out of 12 possible.

In this competition, they haven’t won any of the last 4 away matches.
With a much more efficient start, Sepsi arrives for this round without losing for two games for the championship. Despite this, playing away from home still seeks the first win after in four games having added two draws and two defeats. In these conditions has left to be desired offensively after scoring on average only 0.25 goals per game. On the other hand, its defensive sector has had better use after suffering 1 goal by match. In this match the team should be lined up also in the 4-2-3-1. The team’s highlight in the competition is the striker M. Simonovski with two goals scored.

Betting suggestion:

Concordia Chiajna will play at home in this round and arrives as the favorite, however, and on the other hand, it is the away team Sepsi that makes a better start to the season. Another important fact is that the two teams in these conditions are finding it difficult to win, apart from the fact that both usually score and suffer few goals in this context. In this way and in front of all the data, to opt for a confrontation with few goals in the final scoreboard should be the most indicated.

My prediction:

Bet on Total under 2.5. Currently odds now 1.6

I use Coinbet bookmaker

San Francisco (Stratton) @ Milwaukee Brewers (Gonzalez)

Milwaukee Brewers bring Gio Gonzalez to their team and they are serious about playoffs this season. He is one experienced left handed pitcher who can give a lot of value to the team. Despite I don’t think he is among the top pitchers in the game, his experience can be crucial in some moments, especially later if Milwaukee reach playoffs.

Gio Gonzalez played rest of the season for Washington Nationals, with the record 7-11, ERA of 4.57.

San Francisco on the other side will start with Stratton, who is 9-8 to the season with ERA of 4.72. He struck 89 hitters in 120 innings this season and in his last couple of games, he played really well. ERA of 1.77 and whip 0.689 in last 3 games. But of course 3 games are small sample size to make any conclusions and if we compare both pitcher with other ERA-metrics, I don’t give any huge advantage here to Giants. I rank Stratton as league average pitcher and Gio Gonzalez just little below league average pitcher.

But I think the big difference between those two teams are in other parts of the game. First of all, Milwaukee has one of the best bullpens in the league. I rank their bullpen as 4th best in the league and if we check only ERA, they hold it at 3.27 at home. San Francisco bullpen I rank 14th. I give small advantage here to the Brewers.

Brewers also have better hitting team this season. They score 4.5 runs per game (at home 4.6) and I rank their hitting above league average in all categories. I have them 11th in overall hitting, 10th vs RHP and they are also playing well right now (5th best hitting team in last 30 days). In last 9 games, they lost only 2. On the other side San Francisco lost 6 straight games and they are struggling on the road with record of 29-44. They also score less than Milwaukee (3.9 runs) and they will need to face Gio Gonzalez, who is left handed pitcher. Giants score only 3.5 runs versus lefties.

Bookmakers odds and projections

Bookmakers opened the odds of 1.61 on Milwaukee. Based on my betting model, the fair price on Milwaukee should be at around 1.44. In other words, I would expect $44 of profit, if I bet on Milwaukee $100 and of course if they win. Bookmaers would pay me more ($61) and because of that there is small value with Milwaukee Brewers.

I give Milwaukee Brewers with Gonzalez on the mound cca 69.47% of chance to win this game.

Interesting trends:

Giants lost 4 out of 5 meetings. Giants lost 6 out of last 7  starts and 97 out of 143 games versus winning teams.

Recommended bet and reasons behind it

San Francisco season is probably over. Yes, of course, there is always a chance, but they knew it when they started playing in September and they still collected 6 straight losses in last 6 games. I think they simply don’t have enough quality right now. Posey is injured, Sandoval is injured and they traded Mccutchen to Yankees. Enough said.

On the other side Milwaukee are looking much better and they need to take the advantage in the games against weaker teams. Gio Gonzalez  will definitely try to show good effort in Milwaukee in front of his new fans. He pitched the last time on August 29th and he should be well rested too.

Play Milwaukee Brewers at 1.55 at Bitcoinrush

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Cardiff vs Arsenal : Quick Match Preview

Arsenal can finally realize back to back victories as they meet the newly promoted Cardiff. The Bluebirds have 3 hard matches coming against Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea, so they can soon find themselves in the relegation zone.

Motivation

Cardiff need points to get further away from the red zone while Arsenal will aim to close up the gap between them and the top teams of EPL. Unai Emery has reasons to be concerned in this matter. 9 points are splitting The Gunners from the first placed team.

Formations

The Bluebirds main target is to defend and maybe smudge something on the counter-attack, so a 4-1-4-1 style is the one for mister Neil Warnock. On the other side, Arsenal will probably stick with the 4-2-3-1 which gave good results in their 3-1 victory against West Ham.

Head 2 Head

  • Arsenal won both of the recent EPL meetings and kept clean sheets as well
  • Unai Emery’s men scored at least 2 goals in last 3 meetings

Squad changes

Arsenal will benefit from the comeback of their star player, Mesut Ozil, after the German international player missed last weekend’s action due to illness.

Warnock’s men will miss their right wing, Mendez-Laing, with Callum Paterson and Hoilett pushing for a start.

Betting Advice

Arsenal are in good spirits as they got their first victory last weekend. They performed well against Chelsea and today they should easily find their way to the victory. Cardiff failed to score in the new season so far. Warnock has a bad record against Arsenal with 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses. Besides this, The Bluebirds struggled even against a 10 men Newcastle side, so The Gunners should prove too powerful.

  • Arsenal to win at 1.57 odds

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspurs : Match Preview

The Red Devils already made a wrong step in the last round at Brighton and will want to get back on track. The Spurs, on the other side, can be happy with their perfect start gaining 6 out of 6 points in the first two rounds.

Last performances

The away trip to Brighton was a thriller in the first half where we witnessed 4 goals(3 from the hosts and 1 from Lukaku). Both of the teams kept a clean sheet in the second half with Pogba’s late 95th-minute penalty goal making a hopeless change on the scoring board.

Tottenham eased past Fulham with a convincing performance and an overall score of 3-1.  The Lilywhites had a whopping amount of 25 goal occasions and 11 shots on goal.

Old Trafford to rebound Manchester United?

The hosts can gather confidence from the last home encounters with The Spurs. Mourinho’s men managed to win the last 4 home head to head matches. An important fact is that United managed to keep a clean sheet in all of this meetings.

The Red Devils likely to change formation

The two centre-backs, Bailly and Lindelof, were far from good at Amex last week.  This is why Mourinho is expected to switch to 3 defenders on the back. The returning of Antonio Valencia can prove useful in Monday’s clash especially as Luke Shaw accused some foot problems.

Reinforcements are coming

Alexis Sanchez, the former Arsenal star, is fit again after his injury ahead of Brighton match and should be hungry for goals. There is a lot of competition on United’s attacking third, so Sanchez will want to make his presence felt.

Besides the Chilean, Nemanja Matic returned to training and should be fit to strengthen the midfield line.

Tottenham’s not so lucky news

Mauricio Pochettino hasn’t got much to complain about. His squad is almost at full strength with just one important missing(Son Heung-min due to international duty). On the other hand, he faced a surprise this weekend when he found out that his team’s captain, Hugo Lloris, was found driving drunk after a night out. The Lilywhites’ captain apologized, but this may lead to him missing out Monday’s clash. However, Mauricio is in good relationship with Lloris, so he should be in the starting eleven.

The Lloris incident struck after the team found out that they won’t be able to play at the new stadium until October due to some electricity problems.

Mourinho under pressure

United’s boss needs to pull out a good result on Monday evening otherwise, he will risk being sacked and replaced by heavy linked Zinedine Zidane. Jose’s conflict with Pogba does no good to the team’s overall spirit neither. However, the Portuguese coach is experienced and should be able to motivate his team for Monday.

Betting Prediction

Manchester United remain a strong attacking side and Old Trafford is one of the toughest stadiums in the world. Even if The Red Devils are in uncharted waters and they face a well-organized team in the likes of Tottenham, I expect them to benefit from the returns of Valencia, Matic and Alexis Sanchez.

  • Manchester United +0 Asian handicap

    at 1.79 odds

 

 

MLB: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves

What a game yesterday, Atlanta Braves were leading by 3-0 until the end of the game and then Colorado Rockies came back with 3 runs to tie the game in 9th inning. Right in the next inning they scored 2 more and the win went to Colorado. It was definitely frustrating for Braves how they lost three straight games at home, but they will try to avoid a home sweep.

WINNING TEAMS

Both teams have a winning record and late in the season every win is very important. Colorado Rockies are 66-56 to the season, on the other side we have Atlanta Braves with the record of 68-53. What is interesting with Colorado is that they are playing very good on the road this season. They hold away record of 35-29 and playing on them on the road was profitable so far with +15.4 units. But also Atlanta Braves are playing good baseball and they hold good home record of 34-26, which made a profit of +5.70 units for bettors.

Atlanta Braves are scores 4.9 runs per game with batting average of 0.262, and if we check other much more important batting metrics, they are very solid hitting team and I rank them as #11 best hitting team in the league.

Colorado on the other side scores 4.7 runs per game and I have them as 8th best hitting team against left handed pitchers, but unfortunately for them, they will not play against left handed pitcher, but against very solid right handed pitcher on the road and they score 4.4 runs per on the road with not impressive batting average (0.232) and 4.6 runs per game versus RHP.

With current hitting situation I give small advantage to Atlanta here.

CLOSE PITCHING MATCH UP

Atlanta Braves will start with Anibal Sanchez, who is 6-3 to the season with ERA of 3.17. He has been very solid this season and I rank him above league average. 88 strikeouts in 88 innings and what is very interesting is that he is 4-0 against Colorado in his career with ERA of 1.99 (5-1 team). But of course this should not mean anything, but it is interesting information, that he always played well against the Rockies.

Chacin will start on the other side for Colorado and he has been very good pitcher for this team this season. Record 10-9, ERA of 4.58, but if we check his numbers little bit deeper, I don’t rank him lower than Anibal Sanchez on the other side. What is very interesting is that he has been playing well outside of Coors Field. His road ERA is 3.04 and ha played well in last couple of games too. But what is also interesting, is that one of the worst games this season he had exactly against Atlanta. He walked 6 Atlanta hitters and finished with 7 ER in that game.

BULLPEN ADVANTAGE

Atlanta lost a game yesterday after they were leading 8 innings. It was a blown save from their bullpen, but we can not make judgement about their pitching stuff after that game and if we take a look at a bigger picture, I give Braves advantage here. ERA 4.12 and I rank them as above league average bullpens (#11). Colorado on the other side has a bullpen with ERA of 5.18 and I rank them just below league average (#17). Their away numbers are little bit better as we know, that their home ballpark is not pitcher friendly, but still I think that Atlanta will have small advantage here.

PROJECTIONS, +EV and BOOKMAKERS ODDS

Bookmakers opened the odds at around 1.80 and since then the odds dropped little bit to around 1.76. But I still think we have some value here. I have projected, that Atlanta will have 64.03% of chance winning this game. My fair odds on Atlanta braves are at -178 and because of that there is some value.

RECOMMENDED BET

I believe that Atlanta will make extra effort to avoid a sweep today. Of course this is not a guarantee for anything, but if we check schedule right now, Colorado is going home after this game. This is the last game for them in the east and honestly they made a great job. Yesterday, they were little bit lucky, but who cares, at the end of the day they count another win.

When it comes to pitching, I don’t give any advantage at the start of the game. I think we have two very solid pitchers on the mound and I would not make a big deal out of pitchers performances in the past against those two teams (ATL – Sanchez 4-0 vs Col with ERA 1.99, COL – Chacin 0-1 vs Atl with ERA of 13.49). But I will give small advantage to Atlante late in the game, because based on my numbers they have better bullpen.

Hitting will be also on Atlanta Braves side and especially because we have two right handed pitchers on the mound. Both teams are very good against lefties, but when it comes to hitting against right handed pitchers I give advantage to Braves.

So, after three straight losses, I recommend to take Atlanta Braves for a bounce back and avoiding a sweep.

ATLANTA 1.76

Bet at Cloudbet or Bitcoinrush (US accepted)

MLS: Columbus Crew @ Atlanta United

Hi guys.

I may have found a value bet to share with you. It is from the game between Atlanta United and Columbus Crew, in the Major League Soccer.

We have two very good teams, as they are sitting in the 1st (Atlanta United) and 5th (Columbus Crew) places in a combined table of both conferences. Atlanta is also the 5th best home team in the combined table of both conferences, and Columbus occupies the 12th place in a table of away teams.
But a table of teams based on points tells us nothing, so let’s go deeper.
Atlanta United score in average 2.54 goals per home game and they concede 1.23 goals in average (in home games). Their shot conversion is 13.92% (attempts converted to goals), which is the 6th best in the league (again, in home games). But this is still not enough. Let’s see how many attempts they have, shall we?
Atlanta United in average, attempts to score 18.23 times per home game (4th best in the league), and they allow their opposition to attempt to score only 9.60 times in their stadium (2nd best in the league).

Now let’s check how Columbus Crew are fairing from the same point of view.
Columbus Crew score in average 0.55 goals per game away from home, and concede 1.09 goals per game in an average away game. However, if we look at the shot conversion, we see how abysmal their scoring efficiency is – only 3.85% of attempts end with goals, this is the worst shot conversion in the whole league (talking about away games, just reminding you all). I expect this number to go up, because teams can’t have “bad luck” all the time. My reason for this expectation is, that other than shot conversion, Columbus is playing very well away from home, if we look at it from this statistical point of view – in an average game away from home, they attempt to score 14.18 times (2nd best in the league) and allow their opposition to score only 12.50 times (3rd best in the league, the lower the number the better, of course).

There is also some speculation about how teams will set up for this game. Atlanta might experiment with 3 defenders at the back again.
Let’s look at the injuries and suspensions on both sides. Columbus Crew will be missing Eduardo Sosa (only 275 minutes played, 1 goal). On the other side, Atlanta might be missing Ezequiel Barco (midfielder, 1237 minutes played in 15 starting appearances, 4 goals 1 assist) and some other players like Greg Garza (defender, 865 minutes, 1 goal, 1 assist), Darlington Nagbe (midfielder, 1465 minutes, 1 assist), Mikey Ambrose (defender, 731 minutes, 1 assist) and Sal Zizzo (defender/midfielder, 157 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists).
With that many (left) defender injured, no wonder Atlanta might be playing with 3 at the back. I don’t want to get into any bold predictions, but if I was the coach, I would not order my team to all-out-attack, but play it safely, with such holes in the defense, Columbus might be getting some chances to score.

Anyway, I have created a (not that) simple model in excel sheets, that will calculate the winning percentages from the number of expected goals, which also is calculated by some input stats, that I shall not reveal. Based on these stats, my expected goals for these teams are:

Atlanta United: 1.825
Columbus Crew: 0.580

From these numbers, we can calculate various things. The one where I found value was Total Goals. My percentages:

Under 2.5: 56.81% (which gets us to odds of 1.76)
Over 2.5: 43.10% (which gets us to odds of 2.32)

Bookies odds:

Under 2.5: 2.60
Over 2.5: 1.48

 

Play Under 2.5 Total Goals

Bet at Sportsbet.io

Cardiff vs Newcastle : Match Preview

Two first round losers, in the likes of Cardiff and Newcastle, will meet on Cardiff City Stadium in the opening match of the second round of 2018/19 English Premier League season.

Cardiff will be stronger

Besides the advantage of playing at home, Neil Warnock’s men will benefit from the availability of their well-built striker, Zohore. He managed to score 9 goals and give 5 assists in Championship’s last season.

Cardiff’s midfield clearly lacked consistency in their 2-0 loss at Bournemouth. Paterson and Ralls were not really up to the task. Good news for the Bluebirds as former Cherries midfielder, Arter, and new signing Camarasa will both be available to help the midfield line.

Head to Head Dominance for Magpies

Rafael Benitez’s side holds a pretty solid record in the departures to Cardiff. Newcastle managed to win all the 3 official matches played as visitors against The Bluebirds. The meetings took place in 2009,  2013 and 2017.

Moreover, Newcastle managed to win the last 3 matches against The Bluebirds(0-2, 2-1, 3-0). Also, if we look closer, the Magpies won both of the Premier League encounters between them with 1-2 and 3-0 in the 2013/2014 season.

The Bluebirds are “doomed”

This term, “doomed”, was used by Chris Sutton(former England striker and current sports commentator) to predict Cardiff’s destiny this season. His argument is Bluebirds’ weak transfer campaign in comparison with the other promoted teams “When you look at the other sides who have come up, Wolves have spent big money, Fulham have spent big money.”

Well, I do not think Sutton has enough facts to sustain his affirmation(that is why he has been called ‘lazy’), but after the first round, he is not far from the truth.

Will Benitez keep his outstanding record?

Rafael Benitez can be proud of winning all his 3 matches against Cardiff in his coaching career. This should give him confidence ahead of Saturday’s clash. On the other side, Neil Warnock could be pretty intimidated by the fact that Benitez won 4 times and drew once in the head to head matches between the two managers.

Magpies will probably miss Yedlin

Newcastle’s main right-back, DeAndre Yedlin, is set to miss weekend action due to a knee injury he had picked up in the 1-2 defeat against Tottenham. This is a problem for Benitez as he has few options available at full-back considering Newcastle’s lack of squad depth.

The solution? Javier Manquillo, who was Yedlin’s substitute in the weekend and the usual first bench option at full back in the last season. Manquillo can play on both flanks, but he is right-footed so he should be more valuable on the right-back position.

Newcastle, a dangerous side

The Black and Whites were everything but a dormant side in the last weekend. They looked like they could have won against Spurs. Magpies had 2 woodwork hits alongside a good amount of goal occasions against a strong Spurs side. Benitez’s side proved strong mentality after scoring just 3 minutes after Vertonghen’s opener even if they were surprised (just 7 minutes later) by Alli’s header. The game ended 1-2 for Tottenham, with both teams finishing with 15 goal occasions.

Betting Prediction

Cardiff will be more dangerous with the new additions while Newcastle’s lack of luck against Tottenham should transform into a good karma on Saturday afternoon. However, head to head history, coaches direct meetings and Magpies’ more valuable squad show that Newcastle got the first chance despite missing their right-back.

  • Over 1.5 goals at 1.45 odds

  • Newcastle to win at 2.55 odds

 

 

MLS: Seattle Sounders @ Minnesota United

Hi guys,

I see a value bet in an MLS game playing next weekend, between Minnesota and Seattle.

It will be the first round after the All-star “break”, which is not really a break, because the selected players have to play 3 games in 9 days, maybe that’s the reason why Ibrahimovic from LA Galaxy rejected this “opportunity” to play in the All-star game vs Juventus. Players that refuse to play in the all-star game, get a 1 match suspension. This all-star match shouldn’t really affect neither Minnesota nor Seattle.

My projected lines:
Minnesota: 1.93
Seattle: 4.06
Draw: 4.22

Minnesota is an average league team, they are occupying the 13th place in a combined table of conferences. However, they are a much much better home team – actually, they are the 3rd best home team in the league, scoring on average 1.92 goals at home, and conceding 1.25 goals per match. When we take a look at other offensive stats, we see, that Minnesota is the best shooting team, having 17.29% efficiency (shots to goals). Most of the time they rely on counter-attacks, as we see that they are the team with one of the least amount of shot attempts and they also allow a lot of shot attempts for their opponents.

Even though Seattle are on the rise, not losing in their last 5 games, they still have atrocious stats. Only 9.18 goal scoring attempts away from home, with horrible efficiency (8.91%).

Bookies lines:
Minnesota: 2.18
Seattle: 3.24
Draw: 3.72

 

Play Minnesota United @ 2.18

Bet at BitcoinRush

 

MLS: Philadelphia Union @ Chicago Fire

Hi, everyone.

Today I found value in a game between Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union.

According to my (not very) simple predicting model, Chicago Fire will have higher chance to win this game, than what bookies think.

First of all, Chicago Fire is the most efficient home team when it comes to chances in the penalty area. On the other side, Philadelphia away, allow the 7th most shots from penalty area in the league. Another thing about Philadelphia, they have 4 points (1W,1D) from games away from home, and the same number of goals scored. That means, they rank 14th when it comes to 6Y box efficiency, 20th in penalty area efficiency and 17th out of the box efficiency – out of 23 teams that compete in MLS. That’s pretty bad. But the silver lining for them is, that Chicago Fire’s defence is atrocious – kindly said. They allow the second most shots from the penalty area and out of the box among all MLS teams playing at home. The question is, whether Philadelphia can convert those shots into goals. The results of my calculations don’t think so.

My calculated expected goals for Chicago Fire: 1.567
My calculated expected goals for Philadelphia Union: 0.519

I give Chicago Fire more than 60% chance to win, bookies offer us odds of 2.11 (that means they give Chicago Fire less than 50% win chance). I see a value in this.

 

Play Chicago Fire @ 2.11

Bet at BitcoinRush

SF Giants at Miami Marlins

San Francisco are one of the hottest teams right now, when it comes to hitting. I rank them as the best hitting team in last 30 days and this is something we could expect, because with Lomgoria, Mccutchen, Posey, Sandoval, Crawford and other players, they have a lot of hitting potential. Despite some of those players were at the peak two or three years ago they still have a lot of potential and can explode anytime. Right now, they are playing some very good baseball.

They will face Miami Marlins, one of the weakest teams in the league and with the odds of 1.84 I think we have some solid price.

San Francisco will start with Stratton, Miami will go with Richards and I don’t see any huge advantage on any side. When it comes to bullpen, both bullpens have performed at pretty same level so far this season and I don’t see any advantage in pitching tonight.

But I see big advantage on hitting side. As I mentioned, San Francisco has a lot of potential with some very good players in the lineup and they showed in last 30 days, that they are hot. Miami on the other side is second worst ranked hitting team in the league.

According to my betting model, San Francisco should be a favourite of 1.70 and with the odds around 1.84 we have small value with Giants.

Play San Francisco at 1.84

The best odds: Bitcoinrush