PL: Newcastle x Arsenal

Arsenal defense is in big troubles. They made a huge amount of big defensive errors (7 in last 6 matches, 2nd worst in Premier League) and conceded 51 shots from in box area in this matches. Only few teams were weaker in these crucial defensive statistics. When we take a closer look, Arsenal faced teams like Stoke, Southampton, and Watford in last weeks. So these statistics should be much lower.Their main weakness is in central zone, they conceded 23 chances in this area. One more thing. Arsenal played hard match in Moscow three days ago and players should be tired.

Newcastle offensive is not full of great strikers but is working fine. Gayle in on the top of most offensive statistics (except of goal scoring) in last weeks. He is third rated striker is expected goals involvement (only Aubemaynag and Murray are better) and produced 11 in box shots in last 6 matches. Ayoze Perez, his partner from attack, has not so cool numbers but scored 2 in last two matches, so he should feel very good. Kenedy, young Brazilian on loan from Chelsea, is also making huge positive impact on Newcatle offensive.

If you play Daily Fantasy Sports (for example on Fanteam), both strikers and Kenedy are also an interesting option.

Bet on home side is a viable option as well, but for this BitcoinBettors pick, I choose to bet on Newcastle score 1,5+, 2,37 odds on CloudBet.

Pick: Newcastle to score 2 or more goals, 2,37 odds, Bookmaker Cloudbet

For more info about me, please visit my blog www.frisbald.com. 

ITA: Chievo x Sassuolo

Hi guys,

after a short break, it´s time for another pick. Chievo is very weak and odds on Sassuolo should be lower. According to my betting model, there is a nice value in betting on visitors here.

Chievo x Sassuolo, Sassuolo to win, odds 2,7

More picks for today:
AC x Inter Milano, AC win

Benevento x Verona, Verona win

 

ITA: Sampdoria x Inter Milano

After a successful bet on Sasuollo yesterday, there are more interesting matches in Italy today. For BitcoinBettors, I try to choose bets from my model with the highest adjusted Kelly.

First is Sampdoria win over Inter Milano. Sampdoria has very wide results in the last weeks and produced poor defensive and good offensive numbers. Last week, I believed in Sampdoria against Crotone and it was not a lucky option. But I´m not ready to change it yet and believe in Sampdoria once again. Odds are just too high and Inter is weak in last weeks, especially away from Milano.

So my bet goes on the home side, a higher number of goals is expected in this game as well.

Bet: Sampdoria to win, odds 3,76, adjusted Kelly 2,53%

Bet on Cloud Bet

 

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

Udinese x Sassuolo

Following my numbers, Sassuolo should be in a better position here. My odds are almost reverse to bookies, so it seems like a nice value bet.

 

My expected goals

UDI x SASS 0,97×1,68. My odds on Sass 1,81, bookies 3,61.

According to bookies and my odds, Kelly adjusted stake is 3,36%. There should be also value in betting on Udinese to no score. But the higher value in betting on S. win, so I´m choosing this bet.

Bet on Cloudbet

 

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

 

Cagliari x Lazio

Lazion should be a bigger favorite here, so nice value in betting on visitors.

 

Expected goals

1,38 x 3,08

 

Projected odds

7,11 6,88 1,4

Bookie odds

5,08 3,9 1,7

 

Lazio win, odds 1,7, kelly adj. 3,06%

 

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

Crotone x Sampdoria

Another bet following my model. Seems like nice value bet for Sampdoria. For full numbers, read this article

 

Expected goals

0,92 x 2,02

Projected odds

6,12 4,82 1,59

Bookies odds

3,21 3,26 2,35

 

Sampdoria win, odds 2,35, kelly adj. 3,54%

 

Bet on Cloudbet

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

Sassuolo x Spal

According to my numbers and models, this seems like a nice value bet on Sassuolo. For full numbers for this match and 28. Week of Serie A, please visit my blog.

 

Expected goals

1,95 x 0,69

My projected odds

1,49 4,88 8,12

Bookies odds

2,06 3,26 4

Bet 1, odds 2,06, kelly adj. 3,61%

 

Bet on Cloudbet

 

Jiri “Frisbald” Kaspar

www.frisbald.com

 

Verona x Chievo

Derby is always tough to predict. But this match offers really interesting odds and I can´t leave it behind without bet. Chievo is playing very poorly and I just can´t miss the opportunity to play against in odds over 3.According to my model, Verona should be favorite. According to bookies, it´s an underdog. So clear value.

 

My numbers:
Expected goals 1,59 – 0,55

My odds

1,59 – 4,08 – 7,96

Bookies odds

3,5 – 3,34 – 2,28

My bet Verona win, adj. Kelly 4,81%

Bet on Cloudbet

 

More bets for tomorrow will come, if you wanna see all number, please visit my blog 

Dukla Prague x FC Vysocina Jihlava

There were played 3 round since winter break in Czech First League and situation of both teams can´t be much more different. Dukla had big problems even before winter break (especially as a visitors), but now thing seems even worse. 0-1-2 1:4 after 3 games with average opponents and very bad play.

On the other side, Jihlava seems like all ghosts were left behind during winter and new power rise up under new coach Martin Svejdik. 3-0-0 5:1, all with better teams. Even away victory with the best team in Czech Rep, Viktoria Plzen.

For Jihlava, this was first away points this season. Weak away results are probably the reason behind high odds, can´t see any more reasons. And this reason is a little bit off line as well, as there is a new coach and team get new power and self-confidence. Jihlava has some very good attacking players and they were underperforming in last months. I think that they are finally showing their true qualities now.

Must play for me with these odds. Even away victory could be nice (and more risky, of course) bet with offered odds

 

FC Vysocina Jihlava AH +0,5, odds 1,76

Bet on Cloudbet

Jiri “frisbald” Kaspar, BA (Hons)

www.frisbald.com

 

AC Milano x Arsenal London

 

This bet goes without expected goals, as I´m not modeling my numbers for Europe League. But even without expected goals, this seems like a clear value bet. Odds were higher earlier, but anything over 2 is still nice. I think Milano win is somewhere around 60-65% range, so odds should be still lower then now.

 

The situation of both teams can´t be more different. I was writing about both in last days (here on BB and on my blog as well), so there is so need to repeat it. AC is on fire, Arsenal is struggling, making huge errors in defense, playing without confidence. AW doesn´t seem like a man, who can bring his boys back from this and I think it´s only matter of time before he (finally) leave. But till that day, we can still make some bitcoins.

 

My bet for this game is really straightforward, AC Milano win, odds 2,06

Bet on Cloudbet