AC Milano x Arsenal London

 

This bet goes without expected goals, as I´m not modeling my numbers for Europe League. But even without expected goals, this seems like a clear value bet. Odds were higher earlier, but anything over 2 is still nice. I think Milano win is somewhere around 60-65% range, so odds should be still lower then now.

 

The situation of both teams can´t be more different. I was writing about both in last days (here on BB and on my blog as well), so there is so need to repeat it. AC is on fire, Arsenal is struggling, making huge errors in defense, playing without confidence. AW doesn´t seem like a man, who can bring his boys back from this and I think it´s only matter of time before he (finally) leave. But till that day, we can still make some bitcoins.

 

My bet for this game is really straightforward, AC Milano win, odds 2,06

Bet on Cloudbet

 

 

SPAL vs Bologna

According to my numbers, statistics, and model, Bologna should be favored here. Bookies seem it a different way, so  the odds offers the best value from Saturday Serie A matches. And I´m choosing it for today bet.

 

My expected goals, projected odds, Cloudbet odds and adjusted Kelly for this match:

SPAL               1,43                              3,65                       2,43       -2,34%

DRAW                                                  4,63                       3,17        -1,45%

BOLOGNA    2,01                               1,93                       3,16       +2,95%

 

Seems like nice value bet on Bologna.

You can find all my expected goals and projected lines for 27. Week on my blog www.frisbald.com

Bet on Cloudbet

Arsenal – Manchester City

Hi guys,

this is my first bet for BitcoinBettors, so let me introduce myself a little bit.

I´m 33 years old, graduated from Nottingham Trent University I was playing poker with some decent profit in last years. Betting and sports were only for fun.

But these days are gone. I´m not able to play online poker as a fulltime job now in the Czech Republic, so I´m searching for new ways to make some profit from my hobbies.

I´m using some math and statistical models to beat bookies and offer a different point of view. If you´re interested, you can find more info about me on my blog www.frisbald.com.

Working mostly on matches in Italian Serie A, but sometimes provide picks from another league.

About this bet. I don´t have expected goals here, but the qualities and form of these two teams are so different at the moment, I just can´t miss this match. I was writing about the last matchup of on my blog. As written, I see a big difference in players, but the biggest difference in coaches and their approach to the game. I´m Arsenal fan, so this is tough, but AW is out of the line now.

Arsenal is in a bad shape, players are playing without full pace and not fighting. Also creating huge mistakes in a defense. Offensive is also not so dangerous as it should be.

There is probably no need to write about qualities of MC. There are struggling a little bit against teams, which play deep defense game against them. For example, Wigan uses this and played well organized in an FA Cup and defeat Pep guys without allowing them any big chance.

BUT Arsenal is not a team, to play well organized, defense game and wait for a chance. Wenger seems like an old man without much sense for a tactical game these days. Arsenal has a terrible balance against top PL teams this season (1-3-4 against top teams, only victory 2:0 over Tottenham in the derby) AND against MC (no win in last 4  league matches).

I´m expecting MC to secure victory here in lower odds. 1,5-1,6 are proper odds for me on MC today, so I will take a shot and play 1,77 on Cloudbet.

Arsenal – Manchester City

Bet: MC to win

Bookmaker: CloudBet