Dota 2: Vici Gaming – PSG.LGD

Hey guys,

this game is the lower bracket finals of MDL Changsha Dota 2 major tournament. The game is played on Sunday, 20th May, 7AM CET.

As I mentioned in my previous articles, I think betting on underdogs can be very beneficial in Dota 2 tournaments, mainly in Playoffs. The gap between the top teams is almost non-existing, and most teams can and will beat each other. When I take some stats and numbers into consideration, most of the matchups between the top teams is 50/50, so this is another reason why betting on underdog is my kind of betting, when it comes to Dota 2.

We have PSG.LGD, the favorites, coming into the lower bracket finals. On their route to the finals they beat IG Vitality, TNC Pro Team, Team Secret and Newbee. Now, I don’t want to underestimate PSG.LGD I think they are one of the best teams currently (they won Epicenter XL after all), but the matchups they faced weren’t that hard… IG Vitality hasn’t been seen at any tournaments outside China recently, because they were not able to qualify. TNC Pro Team is known for being a strong team in SEA region, but they are not even the best team from SEA and they often have some questionable plays and people generally see the “SEA gameplay” when they play – they get too excited, they throw games, no discipline, etc. Then we have Team Secret and Newbee, strong teams on paper, but they are out of form for the past few months already and the bookies are waking up and realizing it just now (I already made some bets against Secret in previous tournaments and I think I won all of them).

They will face Vici Gaming – a strong, experienced team, that has already beaten them in the group stages convincingly 2-0. Yes, they lost to VGJ Storm in the upper bracket finals, but when two Chinese teams play against each other, it is a different story. Chinese teams has often very similar gameplay and the games between them can be very close.

PSG.LGD are 35-14 in the past 30 days, with a team KDA 3.60.
Vici Gaming are 19-5 in the past 30 days, with a team KDA 4.06.

Play Vici Gaming @ 2.64

Bet at BitcoinRush

Dota 2: VGJ Storm – Vici Gaming

Hi, guys.

We are in the middle of another Dota 2 esports major tournament, taking place in Changsha, China. This game is played tomorrow (Saturday, 19th May) at 4:30pm CET, but the schedule might change, it depends on how the other games go.

Anyway, this is the game between VGJ Storm, a relatively new team from North American region and Vici Gaming, an experienced team from China. Vici Gaming played 22 games in the past 30 days, and they are 19-3, that is a very good record. Their average team KDA is 4.14. They are unbeaten this tournament, winning 3 series and drawing 2 in the group stages, and beating Mineski 2-1 in the Upper Bracket semifinals.

On the other side we have VGJ Storm. They have a few experienced players – NA veterans Sneyking and MSS, SVG – former coach of Evil Geniuses, and Resolution, who left OG recently and found his place in this team perfectly and Yawar, Sumail’s (EG, DAC 2015 and TI 2015 winner) older brother. They are on fire these last two weeks. They won a minor tournament few days ago, as they demolished everyone in that tournament. They are 32-12 in the past 30 days, with a team KDA 4.25.

According to my numbers and also subjectively looking at this game, I see it as a 50/50 game, so I am going to take the underdog here.

Play VGJ Storm @ 2.74

Bet at BitcoinRush

Dota 2: VGJ. Storm – TheFinalTribe

Hey guys,

just after a couple of days after Epicenter XL ended we have another Dota 2 tournament. This time it is a minor tournament in Thailand, called GESC. We have the first round of the play-offs being played between two Tier 2 teams.

Tier 2 teams are like mid-table teams in the Premier League, or those kind of teams from NBA that somehow make the play-offs but go out in the first round getting beaten 4-0 in a Best of 7 series. We have TheFinalTribe and VGJ. Storm facing each other today. They already played a single Best of 1 game against each other in the group stages, where VGJ. Storm and they look like the better team, and some of the stats and numbers I use for my projections confirm that VGJ. Storm is the better team here indeed. There are a lot of similarities between these two teams – some experienced players, Tier 2 teams knowing there is no real chance to qualify for The International, already preparing for the Qualifiers in the back of their head.

For some reason, bookies decided to overwhelmingly favor VGJ. Storm in this game.

My odds:
VGJ. Storm: 1.64 (61.1%)
TheFinalTribe: 2.57 (38.9%)

Bookie odds:
VGJ. Storm: 1.340
TheFinalTribe: 3.180

I see some value with TheFinalTribe. Be aware, this is not going to be a high quality game, these are not top teams, I would even go as far as to say, that this is a 50/50 game when it come to my opinion on it as a Dota 2 fan. Obviously, VGJ. Storm is the team with the more potential and they are the better team, but I think bookies underestimate TheFinalTribe a bit too much.

Play TheFinalTribe @ 3.180

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: FlyToMoon – Team Liquid

Greetings,

I have another bet to share for Sunday, May 6th. The lower bracket finals between FlyToMoon and Team Liquid starts at 12pm CET.

It proved very beneficial to bet on underdogs in this tournament and I have been avoiding FlyToMoon for a couple of reasons. They are a team that qualified through a so-called Madness qualifier, a last chance qualifier and nobody expected them to leave a mark in this tournament. They already surprised in the group stages, as they went through to the lower bracket play-offs with a score of 3-2 in series and 7-6 in all matches. They beat Mineski 2-1, complexity 2-0, Empire 2-1, they lost to PSG.LGD 2-0 and to Team Liquid 2-1. I would like to say one or two things about that series. FlyToMoon were leading 1-0 and they had their hands on game number 2 as well. They were very close to winning, Team Liquid showed great quality and managed to somehow come back and win. After that, in game 3 FlyToMoon didn’t stand a chance but that could be also due to a huge disappointment that happened in game 2. Psychological and mental state matters a lot in Dota 2 games.

As I said yesterday or the day before that, I think betting on underdogs is very beneficial – and it is true, as I went 3-1 in the last 2 days as I bet on underdogs. Could have been 4-0 but Mineski managed to lose an almost won game. It happens. I didn’t want to take a bet for the Finals day, as FlyToMoon is a quite new team, recently formed, but they are showing great results. They have couple of guys with experience from previous Internationals (Alwayswannafly, Silent) and other notable players like Nofear or Iceberg that had been on the scene for very long but lacked success. It looks like a perfect storm for them and they already secured themselves a Top 3 finish. I don’t have a lot of numbers for this team, that was another reason why I have been avoiding their games, even though I have predicted they would win against paiN Gaming and I gave them good chances against OG as well. They went through, but that still doesn’t justify betting on them.

Team Liquid went through the group stages with perfect record of 5-0 on series (10-2 on matches). They also destroyed OG in the first round of Upper bracket playoffs but then they lost against PSG.LGD 2-0 (my winning bet from Saturday). They don’t look so good, they have been playing way too confidently and maybe even too cheeky, like they don’t respect their opponents enough. However, Team Liquid are one of the best teams currently and it would be stupid not to favor them in this matchup. They should be huge favorites, the question is, how huge?

So as I said, I don’t have enough numbers for FlyToMoon so my projected lines maybe don’t reflect the true power of these teams. But one thing that convinced me to bet on FlyToMoon other than my numbers were the fact that FlyToMoon also managed to knock-out Virtus Pro – the best team in the world according to Gosugamers rankings and DPC points. They beat them 2-0 without any issue. I really like their playstyle, they are very unpredictable and versatile. They are rightly the underdogs in this matchup but I think the odds might be a bit too high on them.

My projected odds:
FlyToMoon: 2.67 (37.45%)
Team Liquid: 1.598 (62.55%)

Bookie’s odds:
FlyToMoon: 3.397
Team Liquid: 1.303

Play FlyToMoon @ 3.397

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: Mineski – Virtus Pro

Hello, everyone.

I will have 2 bets today as well. This is the first one in a best of 1 match of Epicenter XL (Dota 2 tournament in Moscow) lower brackets between Mineski and Virtus Pro.

My main idea for taking these bets in this tournament is, that the scene is getting more and more competitive as The International is getting closer and closer – that is very good for the scene. Most of the teams can beat each other. An example could be, that the two best teams of this season – Team Secret and Virtus Pro, both lost a Best of 3 series to Na’Vi, once a legendary team, these days hugely underperforming team on the verge of disband. For that reason I think betting on underdogs could be very beneficial – I don’t think the bookies are reacting quickly enough, they pay too much attention to historical data. Since the game changes very quickly (there is a patch every 2 weeks) teams had to adapt to new ideas, strategies, etc. Some teams might get burnt out from all the tournaments and travelling, etc. and for that reason I pay more attention to the latest data and results.

I backed Mineski in their previous match against Team Secret and I won that bet. I also won a bet on PSG.LGD as they beat Virtus Pro. Those two were both underdogs getting a win. I know underdogs can’t always win, but I am not looking for a winner, but I am looking for a value in bets (one of the most important things in sports betting, I learnt). And since there are not 2-3 teams dominating the scene anymore, I see a lot of potential value with teams stepping up lately. One of them is Mineski. They won Dota 2 Asian Championship 2 weeks ago, as they beat PSG.LGD in the grand finals 3-2. They had a rough start to Epicenter XL, barely securing a spot in the lower bracket of the play-offs. They beat Secret in the first round and now they have to go up against Virtus Pro. The reason for a rough start might have also been the fact that after their last tournament they took a break and went on a vacation. As Epicenter XL progresses, they are playing better and better and for that reason I think they will give Virtus Pro at least a run for their money. It is also a Best of 1, where anything can happen.

Virtus Pro are looking very good, they became the first team to secure an invite to The International 2018 and they constantly get good placements at tournaments. They are in fact a 3 time Major winners this season. However, and I already mentioned I pay a lot of attention to the latest results, they are not playing that convincingly at Epicenter XL. They dropped a game to paiN gaming in the groupstages, they lost the whole series to Na’Vi (who are a joke of a team, honestly) and they also lost to PSG.LGD 2-1. Especially in game 3, they had no idea what to do and got heavily outplayed. It is also a Best of 1 series as I mentioned, which also gives more chances to the underdogs, in general.

I am aware of the fact, that the underdogs can’t win every day. But I see a value in both bets I am taking. The game is played on Saturday, May 5th at 1pm (CET).

My projected probabilities:
Mineski: 51.20% (odds: 1.95)
Virtus Pro: 48.80% (odds: 2.05)

Bookie’s odds:
Mineski: 2.557
Virtus Pro: 1.493

Play Mineski @ 2.557

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: PSG.LGD – Team Liquid

Hello, everyone.

We had a very good yesterday in Dota 2 Epicenter tournament as we hit both our plays. I found some value in the upper bracket finals between PSG.LGD and Team Liquid.

As I mentioned in my previous write-ups, all the tier 1 teams are very competitive right now. Most of the teams can beat each other and that’s why it is a good idea to bet on underdogs. I think the bookies are not reacting to it in time and are taking the previous results into account too much. The days of Team Liquid / Virtus Pro / Team Secret dominance are over and more and more teams are knocking on the door of TOP3, maybe we should even call it TOP 5 teams in the world. One of those teams are PSG.LGD, previously known as LGD or LGD Gaming. They signed a sponsorship with Paris St. Germain esports organization, so now we have Neymar and Cavani leading the team (that was a joke).

I think the latest data and the latest numbers from the games are way more relevant than the historical data, because the game changes very quickly. There are minor and sometimes even major updates every 14 days and teams need to adjust to them very quickly. It looks like Team Liquid has acclimated very well to the most recent changes and they are having very good results.

These two teams already met in the group stages and Team Liquid won 2-1. PSG.LGD will now have a chance for revenge and they are coming off of a win against Virtus Pro (my bet from yesterday).

Team Liquid also advanced into the upper bracket finals, but they had to go up against OG – a team that I can’t find the right words for. They are dominating the scene in european qualifiers (the best teams are invited straight to the event most of the times) but when they go up against the TOP teams, they have no chance, and it has been like that for the whole season. My point is, that this wasn’t really a test for Team Liquid, and especially in game 1 which they have played today, if they had played against a better team, they would have probably lost that game – because of picks, lane matchups, early game advantage, etc. However OG couldn’t manage to turn an insanely good early game into a real game advantage and Team Liquid beat them.

One last thing about PSG.LGD. It is known for years now, that every iteration of LGD team had come to a rise before The International, and it looks like they are on the rise again. They were the finalists of DAC 2018 2 weeks ago (which they lost to Mineski 3-2) and are continually showing an improvement.

The game is being played on Saturday, May 5th at 6pm (CET). The schedule can be moved, though, based on how the earlier games finish.

My projected win probabilities:
PSG.LGD: 48% (odds: 2.08)
Team Liquid: 52% (odds: 1.92)

Bookie’s odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.478
Team Liquid: 1.521

Play PSG.LGD @ 2.478

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: PSG.LGD – Virtus Pro

Hey guys,

for the first time I will have 2 bets in one day. We are still at the Epicenter XL Dota 2 tournament in Moscow in the first round of play-offs. Now in a game between PSG.LGD and Virtus Pro. The game starts on Friday May 4th at 6pm CET.

As I said in the article of a previous bet, favorites should not be favorized so heavily, because in the last couple of months the Dota 2 scene got very competitive and most of the teams can beat each other. That is the case with PSG.LGD and Virtus Pro too, in my opinion.

PSG.LGD are the powerhouse of China. They got second place at DAC 2 weeks ago and they are hungry for success. They have been struggling in the first part of the season but since new year and after some roster shuffle they are back and stronger than ever in the last 2 years, in my opinion.

Virtus Pro are already qualified for The International so they are playing “only for the money” I guess. But they are still showing dominance on the scene but as I said, top teams can beat each other anytime. So there is a value with underdogs most of the time. One other thing is, PSG.LGD eliminated Virtus Pro 2 weeks ago in the DAC play-offs as they won 2-1.

The odds on my bet are already dropping (from 2.86).

My projected odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.06
Virtus Pro: 1.94

Bookie odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.597
Virtus Pro: 1.478

Play PSG.LGD @ 2.597

Bet at Nitrogensports

 

Dota 2: Mineski – Team Secret

Hey guys,

we are looking forward to a very busy month when it comes to Dota 2 tournaments. Currently, there is an ongoing tournament in Moscow called Epicenter XL and I think there is a value with a bet in a match between Mineski and Team Secret. The game is played on Friday 4th of May, at 1pm CET.

The group stages are all settled, and both teams are heading into the lower bracket with the same record from their respective groups – 2:3 on series, 6:7 on matches (Best of 3 series).

In every other season I would say, that we are approaching the end of the season and The International is near. However, that is not true in this season’s case, because there are still a lot of tournaments during the next 2 months and The International takes place at the end of August. If we reflect on the whole season now, we can say, that we had 3 very strong teams in the first half of the season – Virtus Pro, Team Liquid and Team Secret. Virtus Pro already secured themselves an invite to The International and Team Secret are closely behind them. However, in 2018, many other teams started stepping up and the triumvirate of these strong teams has vanished. Now a lot of teams are on the doorstep of being in the TOP 3 teams in the world, including Vici Gaming, PSG.LGD, Mineski. Also, some of the weaker teams progressed and are playing much better, like OG, paiN Gaming, VGJ Thunder, OpTic Gaming.

I can say with a confidence, that the scene is very competitive right now and most of the teams can beat each other. For that reason I think it is very unwise to set the odds in a huge favor of the favorized team. This is also the example in the bet which I had chosen.

Mineski are the Dota 2 Asia Championship (DAC) winners. They had beaten PSG.LGD in a Best of 5 series and became the reigning champions. They went 6-1 in the groupstages and then fought their way through the Upper Bracket beating OpTic Gaming 2-0, Vici Gaming 2-1, PSG.LGD 2-0 and then in the rematch in the grand finals 3-2. They didn’t have the best start into this tournament and barely qualified for the play-offs, but if they can sort themselves out and get out of this slump, they can win this tournament – they are the winners of the last Major tournament, after all.

On the other side, we have Team Secret. I think this team is favorized way too much. They won some tournaments in this season, but in 2018 they only won Dreamleague minor, beating Fnatic 3-0 in the finals. They didn’t really had a strong competition in that tournament and if we look at the games they have against TOP teams, they struggle. In ESL One Katowice they went into the play-offs as the second seeded team as they suffered a loss in the group stage finals against Fnatic 2-1. Right after that, they had been eliminated by Team Liquid with a 2-1 loss. At Bucharest Major, they secured themselves a spot in play-offs after going 3-1 in a swiss format group, beating paiN Gaming, OpTic Gaming, Complexity Gaming and losing to VGJ Thunder. They got eliminated in the first round of play-offs by Newbee as they lost 2-0. At DAC they went 4-3 in the group stages and were seeded into a breakout bracket of play-offs. They lost 2-0 to Vici Gaming and got eliminated. My point is, they have atrocious record at big events in 2018. They don’t look so dominating as they looked in December when they were beating VP and Team Liquid convincingly. Maybe they got figured out, maybe they are saving strats, but I don’t trust them. They even lost to Na’Vi in the group stages at this Epicenter XL tournament.

My projected odds:
Mineski: 1.78
Team Secret: 2.28

Bookie odds:
Mineski: 2.29
Team Secret: 1.605

Play Mineski @ 2.291

Bet at Nitrogensports 

 

 

MLS: Sporting Kansas City – Seattle Sounders

Hi guys!

It might be a little early for betting on the MLS league, but I really like this bet because I think there is some value. I will not share my projected odds for this game, because there is just not enough numbers yet (Seattle played only 3 games) and I think it is pointless to completely rely on them. I will have some other reasons to make this bet, though.

Seattle Sounders will be missing Clint Dempsey, among other players, probably the best american soccer player in the recent years. He played only 37 minutes this season and then he got sent off. He also missed the opening game of the season for Seattle and this might be one of the reasons why are the Sounders without a point so far and with 5 conceded goals and none scored. Interesting fact is, that none of those 3 games see Seattle finishing the match with 11 players on the pitch. Their centre back, Tony Alfaro was sent off against LAFC, Dempsey got a red card after 37 minutes against FC Dallas and their right back, Kelvin Leerdam enjoyed only 40 minutes of game time in their home game vs Montreal.

Sporting Kansas City had a very good start to the new season, if we don’t count their opening game, which they lost 0-2 at home vs New York City. Even in that game, they were a little bit unlucky. I will also mention, that this team loves to attack. In average, they have 17 goal scoring attempts per game. In general, I think MLS is a very interesting league to watch, teams love to attack, and because of that we see a lot of goal scoring attempts on both sides, lot of goals, etc.
Kansas City are leading the Western Conference with 13 points from 6 matches, losing once, drawing once and winning 4 games. They scored the most goals in the league so far – 12, but they also conceded a lot – 9. If they can tighten the defence a little bit, they can become the title contenders this season.

 

Play Sporting Kansas City @ 1.74 / -136

Bet at BitcoinRush

 

 

Championship: Bristol City – Birmingham

Hi guys!

After a few quiet days I am bringing you another recommended bet. The bet will be from the second highest english football (or soccer for american readers) league, Championship, in a match between Bristol City (8th) and Birmingham (20th).

My projected goals for Bristol are 1.53 goals in this game. They are on a bad form since Christmas, winning only 3 games, drawing 6 and losing 8. They are still on an OK form at home, losing only 1 in their last 6 home games. They still have a chance to fight for promotion and Birmingham’s away form is not the greatest either.

My projected goals for Birmingham are 0.79 goals. They are 1-4 in their last 5 away games and overall they are the second worst away team in the league, scoring 15 and conceding 36 goals so far in the campaign.

Let’s not forget to mention, however, that Bristol have never won against Birmingham when playing at home (0-1-6).

My projected win percentage for Bristol City: 55.05%
My projected odds on Bristol City: 1.82
Bookie’s odds on Bristol City: 2.08

I always recommend to make your own research before placing a bet.

Play Bristol City @ 2.08 (+108)

Bet at BitcoinRush