Championship: Derby – Brentford

Hi everyone,

our last play (Leeds at home vs Preston) was a winning bet, but we should not be satisfied with that bet. The odds went up and we ended with negative Closing Line Value, meaning we could have get a better price for our bet.
My next bet will be from the Championship again. I see value in a game between Derby and Brentford.

Derby, coached by Lampard didn’t start off the new season as they wanted. Losing to Millwall away can be forgiven, losing to Rotherham away and getting demolished 1:4 at home by Leeds definitely not. While they are the 7th best team in the number of goal scoring efforts at home (14.75 average per game), their shot efficiency is only 8.47%, making them the 5th least efficient team in the whole league. Their defence is 6th best in the league if we look at the number of opponent goal scoring efforts allowed (10 average per game). If we look at the goals so far, in average they score 1.25 goals per game at home and concede 1.00 goal per game at home. This is not very relevant but I wanted to put this out here.

Brentford on the other side definitely exceeded my personal expectations for them this season with the way they started this season. They are great both in attack and in defense. Their only loss this season came in a game away at Blackburn from Blackburn’s only shot at the goal. Brentford is a very good away team so far and the statistics prove this too. They are the 2nd best away team at goal scoring efforts created (13.00 average per game), even though their shot efficiency is not that great – 7.69%, 5th worst efficiency among the league in away matches. Their defence is also very solid. They allow the opposition team only 9.50 goal scoring efforts in average per game in away matches, making them the second best team in the league in this aspect. In average, Brentford in their away games scores 1.00 goal and concedes 1.25 goals.

Both teams play 8 games so far this season. Derby with a score of 10:9 and 13 points sits at the 9th position in the league table, while Brentford with a score of 15:7 and 15 points occupies the 3rd place in the league table.

My projected Expected goals for both teams:
Derby: 0.834
Brentford: 1.163

 

Bookie’s odds on over/under:
Under 2.5: 1.94
Over 2.5: 1.96

 

My odds on over/under:
Under 2.5: 1.48
Over 2.5: 3.10

Bet on Under 2.5 @ 1.94

Bet at Bitcoinrush

Championship: Leeds – Preston

Hi guys,

Championship is still in it’s early stages, yet there are some games where when you look at the odds, you feel there is some value. I got the numbers to back it, so let’s move on to my bet.

Leeds started off the season fairly well. They are the only unbeaten team in the Championship after 7 games, as they won 4 games and drew 3 of them, with an overall score of 15:5.
If we look at Leeds home games, they are only the 11th best team at home when we look at the average amount of goal scoring attempts (13.33). Their shot conversion rate is 12,5%, making them the 6th best team in the league (in home games). Their defense is much better compared to the rest of the league, as they allow only 9 goal scoring opportunities on average for the enemy team when playing at home, making them the second best team in the league from this point of view. My number of Expected Goals for Leeds is 1.584.

If we look at Preston, they have a terrible start to the season. They haven’t even scored a goal away from home yet. They are occupying the second to last place in the table and the only bright spot in their season was a win in Carabao Cup at Elland Road (Leeds stadium) 0:2. From the attacking point of view, they create in average 8.67 goal scoring opportunities when playing away from home, making them the 3rd worst team in the league from this aspect. Their shot conversion away from home sits at 0% (since they haven’t scored a goal away from home yet) from 26 attempted shots. Their defense is a little bit sweeter story for them compared to the rest of the league, as they allow in average 12.3 goal scoring opportunities for the hosting team, making them the 9th best team in the league in this aspect. My number of Expected Goals for Preston is 0.290.

Bookmaker’s odds:
Leeds: 1.88
Draw: 3.51
Preston: 4.71

My odds:
Leeds: 1.42
Draw: 4.30
Preston: 15.69

It is actually mind baffling, seeing the odds. A little context about the injuries.
Leeds will be most likely missing Gaetano Berardi, a centre-back that played in the previous 6 matches. A huge blow for Leeds will be also the absence of Kemar Roofe, their attacking midfielder, who scored 4 goals and assisted 2 more so far this season. Another midfielder, Pablo Hernandez will be also missing. So far he scored 3 goals and assisted another 2 in 5 matches this season.

Given the absence of these players, the odds make a lot more sense. However, it is still hard to not see value on Leeds’ side.

 

Leeds to win @ 1.88

Bet at Bitcoinrush

 

MLS: Columbus Crew @ Atlanta United

Hi guys.

I may have found a value bet to share with you. It is from the game between Atlanta United and Columbus Crew, in the Major League Soccer.

We have two very good teams, as they are sitting in the 1st (Atlanta United) and 5th (Columbus Crew) places in a combined table of both conferences. Atlanta is also the 5th best home team in the combined table of both conferences, and Columbus occupies the 12th place in a table of away teams.
But a table of teams based on points tells us nothing, so let’s go deeper.
Atlanta United score in average 2.54 goals per home game and they concede 1.23 goals in average (in home games). Their shot conversion is 13.92% (attempts converted to goals), which is the 6th best in the league (again, in home games). But this is still not enough. Let’s see how many attempts they have, shall we?
Atlanta United in average, attempts to score 18.23 times per home game (4th best in the league), and they allow their opposition to attempt to score only 9.60 times in their stadium (2nd best in the league).

Now let’s check how Columbus Crew are fairing from the same point of view.
Columbus Crew score in average 0.55 goals per game away from home, and concede 1.09 goals per game in an average away game. However, if we look at the shot conversion, we see how abysmal their scoring efficiency is – only 3.85% of attempts end with goals, this is the worst shot conversion in the whole league (talking about away games, just reminding you all). I expect this number to go up, because teams can’t have “bad luck” all the time. My reason for this expectation is, that other than shot conversion, Columbus is playing very well away from home, if we look at it from this statistical point of view – in an average game away from home, they attempt to score 14.18 times (2nd best in the league) and allow their opposition to score only 12.50 times (3rd best in the league, the lower the number the better, of course).

There is also some speculation about how teams will set up for this game. Atlanta might experiment with 3 defenders at the back again.
Let’s look at the injuries and suspensions on both sides. Columbus Crew will be missing Eduardo Sosa (only 275 minutes played, 1 goal). On the other side, Atlanta might be missing Ezequiel Barco (midfielder, 1237 minutes played in 15 starting appearances, 4 goals 1 assist) and some other players like Greg Garza (defender, 865 minutes, 1 goal, 1 assist), Darlington Nagbe (midfielder, 1465 minutes, 1 assist), Mikey Ambrose (defender, 731 minutes, 1 assist) and Sal Zizzo (defender/midfielder, 157 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists).
With that many (left) defender injured, no wonder Atlanta might be playing with 3 at the back. I don’t want to get into any bold predictions, but if I was the coach, I would not order my team to all-out-attack, but play it safely, with such holes in the defense, Columbus might be getting some chances to score.

Anyway, I have created a (not that) simple model in excel sheets, that will calculate the winning percentages from the number of expected goals, which also is calculated by some input stats, that I shall not reveal. Based on these stats, my expected goals for these teams are:

Atlanta United: 1.825
Columbus Crew: 0.580

From these numbers, we can calculate various things. The one where I found value was Total Goals. My percentages:

Under 2.5: 56.81% (which gets us to odds of 1.76)
Over 2.5: 43.10% (which gets us to odds of 2.32)

Bookies odds:

Under 2.5: 2.60
Over 2.5: 1.48

 

Play Under 2.5 Total Goals

Bet at Sportsbet.io

MLS: Seattle Sounders @ Minnesota United

Hi guys,

I see a value bet in an MLS game playing next weekend, between Minnesota and Seattle.

It will be the first round after the All-star “break”, which is not really a break, because the selected players have to play 3 games in 9 days, maybe that’s the reason why Ibrahimovic from LA Galaxy rejected this “opportunity” to play in the All-star game vs Juventus. Players that refuse to play in the all-star game, get a 1 match suspension. This all-star match shouldn’t really affect neither Minnesota nor Seattle.

My projected lines:
Minnesota: 1.93
Seattle: 4.06
Draw: 4.22

Minnesota is an average league team, they are occupying the 13th place in a combined table of conferences. However, they are a much much better home team – actually, they are the 3rd best home team in the league, scoring on average 1.92 goals at home, and conceding 1.25 goals per match. When we take a look at other offensive stats, we see, that Minnesota is the best shooting team, having 17.29% efficiency (shots to goals). Most of the time they rely on counter-attacks, as we see that they are the team with one of the least amount of shot attempts and they also allow a lot of shot attempts for their opponents.

Even though Seattle are on the rise, not losing in their last 5 games, they still have atrocious stats. Only 9.18 goal scoring attempts away from home, with horrible efficiency (8.91%).

Bookies lines:
Minnesota: 2.18
Seattle: 3.24
Draw: 3.72

 

Play Minnesota United @ 2.18

Bet at BitcoinRush

 

MLS: Philadelphia Union @ Chicago Fire

Hi, everyone.

Today I found value in a game between Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union.

According to my (not very) simple predicting model, Chicago Fire will have higher chance to win this game, than what bookies think.

First of all, Chicago Fire is the most efficient home team when it comes to chances in the penalty area. On the other side, Philadelphia away, allow the 7th most shots from penalty area in the league. Another thing about Philadelphia, they have 4 points (1W,1D) from games away from home, and the same number of goals scored. That means, they rank 14th when it comes to 6Y box efficiency, 20th in penalty area efficiency and 17th out of the box efficiency – out of 23 teams that compete in MLS. That’s pretty bad. But the silver lining for them is, that Chicago Fire’s defence is atrocious – kindly said. They allow the second most shots from the penalty area and out of the box among all MLS teams playing at home. The question is, whether Philadelphia can convert those shots into goals. The results of my calculations don’t think so.

My calculated expected goals for Chicago Fire: 1.567
My calculated expected goals for Philadelphia Union: 0.519

I give Chicago Fire more than 60% chance to win, bookies offer us odds of 2.11 (that means they give Chicago Fire less than 50% win chance). I see a value in this.

 

Play Chicago Fire @ 2.11

Bet at BitcoinRush

Dota 2: Team Spirit – Evil Geniuses

Hello, guys.

I have a recommended bet for you from the Chinese Supermajor Dota 2 tournament. It is an elimination game from the lower bracket between Team Spirit and Evil Geniuses.

Bookie’s odds:
Team Spirit: 1.99
Evil Geniuses: 1.73

I am actually baffled by these odds.

Let’s start with Team Spirit. 4 of their players played together at some point in Virtus Pro, they know each other very well, good chemistry, good synergy between them. Typical CIS team that shows a lot of aggression. I consider them as the second/third best team from the CIS region right now (first is obviously Virtus Pro). They are going to be the main contenders to win the CIS qualification for The International 2018. They don’t have a lot of LAN matches under their belt this season, but the lack of numbers is not a problem. A week ago, in Birmingham major they eliminated Evil Geniuses easily. This sparked the roster change of Evil Geniuses. They let Misery and Fear (the two most experienced players with great leadership skills) go, and Fly and S4 (from OG) took their places. According to the Dota 2 community that was a great change. This is pure fanboyism and I am actually surprised the bookies stand with the community on this matter. I, personally, don’t see this EG team achieving anything. This is a roster of players that had been failing the expectations for the whole year on two different teams. Now they put together these players, obviously individually and on paper they are a good bunch of players. But I am absolutely not convinced by them. They are 0-4 so far in this tournament, they are playing atrocious Dota, they are not on a same page. They have terrible numbers and stats too for the last 2 months.

 

My projected win percentages:
Team Spirit: 64.5% (odds: 1.55)
Evil Geniuses: 35.5% (odds: 2.82)

Play Team Spirit @ 1.99

Bet at Sportsbet.io

Dota 2: Vici Gaming – PSG.LGD

Hey guys,

this game is the lower bracket finals of MDL Changsha Dota 2 major tournament. The game is played on Sunday, 20th May, 7AM CET.

As I mentioned in my previous articles, I think betting on underdogs can be very beneficial in Dota 2 tournaments, mainly in Playoffs. The gap between the top teams is almost non-existing, and most teams can and will beat each other. When I take some stats and numbers into consideration, most of the matchups between the top teams is 50/50, so this is another reason why betting on underdog is my kind of betting, when it comes to Dota 2.

We have PSG.LGD, the favorites, coming into the lower bracket finals. On their route to the finals they beat IG Vitality, TNC Pro Team, Team Secret and Newbee. Now, I don’t want to underestimate PSG.LGD I think they are one of the best teams currently (they won Epicenter XL after all), but the matchups they faced weren’t that hard… IG Vitality hasn’t been seen at any tournaments outside China recently, because they were not able to qualify. TNC Pro Team is known for being a strong team in SEA region, but they are not even the best team from SEA and they often have some questionable plays and people generally see the “SEA gameplay” when they play – they get too excited, they throw games, no discipline, etc. Then we have Team Secret and Newbee, strong teams on paper, but they are out of form for the past few months already and the bookies are waking up and realizing it just now (I already made some bets against Secret in previous tournaments and I think I won all of them).

They will face Vici Gaming – a strong, experienced team, that has already beaten them in the group stages convincingly 2-0. Yes, they lost to VGJ Storm in the upper bracket finals, but when two Chinese teams play against each other, it is a different story. Chinese teams has often very similar gameplay and the games between them can be very close.

PSG.LGD are 35-14 in the past 30 days, with a team KDA 3.60.
Vici Gaming are 19-5 in the past 30 days, with a team KDA 4.06.

Play Vici Gaming @ 2.64

Bet at BitcoinRush

Dota 2: VGJ Storm – Vici Gaming

Hi, guys.

We are in the middle of another Dota 2 esports major tournament, taking place in Changsha, China. This game is played tomorrow (Saturday, 19th May) at 4:30pm CET, but the schedule might change, it depends on how the other games go.

Anyway, this is the game between VGJ Storm, a relatively new team from North American region and Vici Gaming, an experienced team from China. Vici Gaming played 22 games in the past 30 days, and they are 19-3, that is a very good record. Their average team KDA is 4.14. They are unbeaten this tournament, winning 3 series and drawing 2 in the group stages, and beating Mineski 2-1 in the Upper Bracket semifinals.

On the other side we have VGJ Storm. They have a few experienced players – NA veterans Sneyking and MSS, SVG – former coach of Evil Geniuses, and Resolution, who left OG recently and found his place in this team perfectly and Yawar, Sumail’s (EG, DAC 2015 and TI 2015 winner) older brother. They are on fire these last two weeks. They won a minor tournament few days ago, as they demolished everyone in that tournament. They are 32-12 in the past 30 days, with a team KDA 4.25.

According to my numbers and also subjectively looking at this game, I see it as a 50/50 game, so I am going to take the underdog here.

Play VGJ Storm @ 2.74

Bet at BitcoinRush

Dota 2: VGJ. Storm – TheFinalTribe

Hey guys,

just after a couple of days after Epicenter XL ended we have another Dota 2 tournament. This time it is a minor tournament in Thailand, called GESC. We have the first round of the play-offs being played between two Tier 2 teams.

Tier 2 teams are like mid-table teams in the Premier League, or those kind of teams from NBA that somehow make the play-offs but go out in the first round getting beaten 4-0 in a Best of 7 series. We have TheFinalTribe and VGJ. Storm facing each other today. They already played a single Best of 1 game against each other in the group stages, where VGJ. Storm and they look like the better team, and some of the stats and numbers I use for my projections confirm that VGJ. Storm is the better team here indeed. There are a lot of similarities between these two teams – some experienced players, Tier 2 teams knowing there is no real chance to qualify for The International, already preparing for the Qualifiers in the back of their head.

For some reason, bookies decided to overwhelmingly favor VGJ. Storm in this game.

My odds:
VGJ. Storm: 1.64 (61.1%)
TheFinalTribe: 2.57 (38.9%)

Bookie odds:
VGJ. Storm: 1.340
TheFinalTribe: 3.180

I see some value with TheFinalTribe. Be aware, this is not going to be a high quality game, these are not top teams, I would even go as far as to say, that this is a 50/50 game when it come to my opinion on it as a Dota 2 fan. Obviously, VGJ. Storm is the team with the more potential and they are the better team, but I think bookies underestimate TheFinalTribe a bit too much.

Play TheFinalTribe @ 3.180

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: FlyToMoon – Team Liquid

Greetings,

I have another bet to share for Sunday, May 6th. The lower bracket finals between FlyToMoon and Team Liquid starts at 12pm CET.

It proved very beneficial to bet on underdogs in this tournament and I have been avoiding FlyToMoon for a couple of reasons. They are a team that qualified through a so-called Madness qualifier, a last chance qualifier and nobody expected them to leave a mark in this tournament. They already surprised in the group stages, as they went through to the lower bracket play-offs with a score of 3-2 in series and 7-6 in all matches. They beat Mineski 2-1, complexity 2-0, Empire 2-1, they lost to PSG.LGD 2-0 and to Team Liquid 2-1. I would like to say one or two things about that series. FlyToMoon were leading 1-0 and they had their hands on game number 2 as well. They were very close to winning, Team Liquid showed great quality and managed to somehow come back and win. After that, in game 3 FlyToMoon didn’t stand a chance but that could be also due to a huge disappointment that happened in game 2. Psychological and mental state matters a lot in Dota 2 games.

As I said yesterday or the day before that, I think betting on underdogs is very beneficial – and it is true, as I went 3-1 in the last 2 days as I bet on underdogs. Could have been 4-0 but Mineski managed to lose an almost won game. It happens. I didn’t want to take a bet for the Finals day, as FlyToMoon is a quite new team, recently formed, but they are showing great results. They have couple of guys with experience from previous Internationals (Alwayswannafly, Silent) and other notable players like Nofear or Iceberg that had been on the scene for very long but lacked success. It looks like a perfect storm for them and they already secured themselves a Top 3 finish. I don’t have a lot of numbers for this team, that was another reason why I have been avoiding their games, even though I have predicted they would win against paiN Gaming and I gave them good chances against OG as well. They went through, but that still doesn’t justify betting on them.

Team Liquid went through the group stages with perfect record of 5-0 on series (10-2 on matches). They also destroyed OG in the first round of Upper bracket playoffs but then they lost against PSG.LGD 2-0 (my winning bet from Saturday). They don’t look so good, they have been playing way too confidently and maybe even too cheeky, like they don’t respect their opponents enough. However, Team Liquid are one of the best teams currently and it would be stupid not to favor them in this matchup. They should be huge favorites, the question is, how huge?

So as I said, I don’t have enough numbers for FlyToMoon so my projected lines maybe don’t reflect the true power of these teams. But one thing that convinced me to bet on FlyToMoon other than my numbers were the fact that FlyToMoon also managed to knock-out Virtus Pro – the best team in the world according to Gosugamers rankings and DPC points. They beat them 2-0 without any issue. I really like their playstyle, they are very unpredictable and versatile. They are rightly the underdogs in this matchup but I think the odds might be a bit too high on them.

My projected odds:
FlyToMoon: 2.67 (37.45%)
Team Liquid: 1.598 (62.55%)

Bookie’s odds:
FlyToMoon: 3.397
Team Liquid: 1.303

Play FlyToMoon @ 3.397

Bet at Nitrogensports