Dota 2: Mineski – Virtus Pro

Hello, everyone.

I will have 2 bets today as well. This is the first one in a best of 1 match of Epicenter XL (Dota 2 tournament in Moscow) lower brackets between Mineski and Virtus Pro.

My main idea for taking these bets in this tournament is, that the scene is getting more and more competitive as The International is getting closer and closer – that is very good for the scene. Most of the teams can beat each other. An example could be, that the two best teams of this season – Team Secret and Virtus Pro, both lost a Best of 3 series to Na’Vi, once a legendary team, these days hugely underperforming team on the verge of disband. For that reason I think betting on underdogs could be very beneficial – I don’t think the bookies are reacting quickly enough, they pay too much attention to historical data. Since the game changes very quickly (there is a patch every 2 weeks) teams had to adapt to new ideas, strategies, etc. Some teams might get burnt out from all the tournaments and travelling, etc. and for that reason I pay more attention to the latest data and results.

I backed Mineski in their previous match against Team Secret and I won that bet. I also won a bet on PSG.LGD as they beat Virtus Pro. Those two were both underdogs getting a win. I know underdogs can’t always win, but I am not looking for a winner, but I am looking for a value in bets (one of the most important things in sports betting, I learnt). And since there are not 2-3 teams dominating the scene anymore, I see a lot of potential value with teams stepping up lately. One of them is Mineski. They won Dota 2 Asian Championship 2 weeks ago, as they beat PSG.LGD in the grand finals 3-2. They had a rough start to Epicenter XL, barely securing a spot in the lower bracket of the play-offs. They beat Secret in the first round and now they have to go up against Virtus Pro. The reason for a rough start might have also been the fact that after their last tournament they took a break and went on a vacation. As Epicenter XL progresses, they are playing better and better and for that reason I think they will give Virtus Pro at least a run for their money. It is also a Best of 1, where anything can happen.

Virtus Pro are looking very good, they became the first team to secure an invite to The International 2018 and they constantly get good placements at tournaments. They are in fact a 3 time Major winners this season. However, and I already mentioned I pay a lot of attention to the latest results, they are not playing that convincingly at Epicenter XL. They dropped a game to paiN gaming in the groupstages, they lost the whole series to Na’Vi (who are a joke of a team, honestly) and they also lost to PSG.LGD 2-1. Especially in game 3, they had no idea what to do and got heavily outplayed. It is also a Best of 1 series as I mentioned, which also gives more chances to the underdogs, in general.

I am aware of the fact, that the underdogs can’t win every day. But I see a value in both bets I am taking. The game is played on Saturday, May 5th at 1pm (CET).

My projected probabilities:
Mineski: 51.20% (odds: 1.95)
Virtus Pro: 48.80% (odds: 2.05)

Bookie’s odds:
Mineski: 2.557
Virtus Pro: 1.493

Play Mineski @ 2.557

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: PSG.LGD – Team Liquid

Hello, everyone.

We had a very good yesterday in Dota 2 Epicenter tournament as we hit both our plays. I found some value in the upper bracket finals between PSG.LGD and Team Liquid.

As I mentioned in my previous write-ups, all the tier 1 teams are very competitive right now. Most of the teams can beat each other and that’s why it is a good idea to bet on underdogs. I think the bookies are not reacting to it in time and are taking the previous results into account too much. The days of Team Liquid / Virtus Pro / Team Secret dominance are over and more and more teams are knocking on the door of TOP3, maybe we should even call it TOP 5 teams in the world. One of those teams are PSG.LGD, previously known as LGD or LGD Gaming. They signed a sponsorship with Paris St. Germain esports organization, so now we have Neymar and Cavani leading the team (that was a joke).

I think the latest data and the latest numbers from the games are way more relevant than the historical data, because the game changes very quickly. There are minor and sometimes even major updates every 14 days and teams need to adjust to them very quickly. It looks like Team Liquid has acclimated very well to the most recent changes and they are having very good results.

These two teams already met in the group stages and Team Liquid won 2-1. PSG.LGD will now have a chance for revenge and they are coming off of a win against Virtus Pro (my bet from yesterday).

Team Liquid also advanced into the upper bracket finals, but they had to go up against OG – a team that I can’t find the right words for. They are dominating the scene in european qualifiers (the best teams are invited straight to the event most of the times) but when they go up against the TOP teams, they have no chance, and it has been like that for the whole season. My point is, that this wasn’t really a test for Team Liquid, and especially in game 1 which they have played today, if they had played against a better team, they would have probably lost that game – because of picks, lane matchups, early game advantage, etc. However OG couldn’t manage to turn an insanely good early game into a real game advantage and Team Liquid beat them.

One last thing about PSG.LGD. It is known for years now, that every iteration of LGD team had come to a rise before The International, and it looks like they are on the rise again. They were the finalists of DAC 2018 2 weeks ago (which they lost to Mineski 3-2) and are continually showing an improvement.

The game is being played on Saturday, May 5th at 6pm (CET). The schedule can be moved, though, based on how the earlier games finish.

My projected win probabilities:
PSG.LGD: 48% (odds: 2.08)
Team Liquid: 52% (odds: 1.92)

Bookie’s odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.478
Team Liquid: 1.521

Play PSG.LGD @ 2.478

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: PSG.LGD – Virtus Pro

Hey guys,

for the first time I will have 2 bets in one day. We are still at the Epicenter XL Dota 2 tournament in Moscow in the first round of play-offs. Now in a game between PSG.LGD and Virtus Pro. The game starts on Friday May 4th at 6pm CET.

As I said in the article of a previous bet, favorites should not be favorized so heavily, because in the last couple of months the Dota 2 scene got very competitive and most of the teams can beat each other. That is the case with PSG.LGD and Virtus Pro too, in my opinion.

PSG.LGD are the powerhouse of China. They got second place at DAC 2 weeks ago and they are hungry for success. They have been struggling in the first part of the season but since new year and after some roster shuffle they are back and stronger than ever in the last 2 years, in my opinion.

Virtus Pro are already qualified for The International so they are playing “only for the money” I guess. But they are still showing dominance on the scene but as I said, top teams can beat each other anytime. So there is a value with underdogs most of the time. One other thing is, PSG.LGD eliminated Virtus Pro 2 weeks ago in the DAC play-offs as they won 2-1.

The odds on my bet are already dropping (from 2.86).

My projected odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.06
Virtus Pro: 1.94

Bookie odds:
PSG.LGD: 2.597
Virtus Pro: 1.478

Play PSG.LGD @ 2.597

Bet at Nitrogensports

 

Dota 2: Mineski – Team Secret

Hey guys,

we are looking forward to a very busy month when it comes to Dota 2 tournaments. Currently, there is an ongoing tournament in Moscow called Epicenter XL and I think there is a value with a bet in a match between Mineski and Team Secret. The game is played on Friday 4th of May, at 1pm CET.

The group stages are all settled, and both teams are heading into the lower bracket with the same record from their respective groups – 2:3 on series, 6:7 on matches (Best of 3 series).

In every other season I would say, that we are approaching the end of the season and The International is near. However, that is not true in this season’s case, because there are still a lot of tournaments during the next 2 months and The International takes place at the end of August. If we reflect on the whole season now, we can say, that we had 3 very strong teams in the first half of the season – Virtus Pro, Team Liquid and Team Secret. Virtus Pro already secured themselves an invite to The International and Team Secret are closely behind them. However, in 2018, many other teams started stepping up and the triumvirate of these strong teams has vanished. Now a lot of teams are on the doorstep of being in the TOP 3 teams in the world, including Vici Gaming, PSG.LGD, Mineski. Also, some of the weaker teams progressed and are playing much better, like OG, paiN Gaming, VGJ Thunder, OpTic Gaming.

I can say with a confidence, that the scene is very competitive right now and most of the teams can beat each other. For that reason I think it is very unwise to set the odds in a huge favor of the favorized team. This is also the example in the bet which I had chosen.

Mineski are the Dota 2 Asia Championship (DAC) winners. They had beaten PSG.LGD in a Best of 5 series and became the reigning champions. They went 6-1 in the groupstages and then fought their way through the Upper Bracket beating OpTic Gaming 2-0, Vici Gaming 2-1, PSG.LGD 2-0 and then in the rematch in the grand finals 3-2. They didn’t have the best start into this tournament and barely qualified for the play-offs, but if they can sort themselves out and get out of this slump, they can win this tournament – they are the winners of the last Major tournament, after all.

On the other side, we have Team Secret. I think this team is favorized way too much. They won some tournaments in this season, but in 2018 they only won Dreamleague minor, beating Fnatic 3-0 in the finals. They didn’t really had a strong competition in that tournament and if we look at the games they have against TOP teams, they struggle. In ESL One Katowice they went into the play-offs as the second seeded team as they suffered a loss in the group stage finals against Fnatic 2-1. Right after that, they had been eliminated by Team Liquid with a 2-1 loss. At Bucharest Major, they secured themselves a spot in play-offs after going 3-1 in a swiss format group, beating paiN Gaming, OpTic Gaming, Complexity Gaming and losing to VGJ Thunder. They got eliminated in the first round of play-offs by Newbee as they lost 2-0. At DAC they went 4-3 in the group stages and were seeded into a breakout bracket of play-offs. They lost 2-0 to Vici Gaming and got eliminated. My point is, they have atrocious record at big events in 2018. They don’t look so dominating as they looked in December when they were beating VP and Team Liquid convincingly. Maybe they got figured out, maybe they are saving strats, but I don’t trust them. They even lost to Na’Vi in the group stages at this Epicenter XL tournament.

My projected odds:
Mineski: 1.78
Team Secret: 2.28

Bookie odds:
Mineski: 2.29
Team Secret: 1.605

Play Mineski @ 2.291

Bet at Nitrogensports 

 

 

MLS: Sporting Kansas City – Seattle Sounders

Hi guys!

It might be a little early for betting on the MLS league, but I really like this bet because I think there is some value. I will not share my projected odds for this game, because there is just not enough numbers yet (Seattle played only 3 games) and I think it is pointless to completely rely on them. I will have some other reasons to make this bet, though.

Seattle Sounders will be missing Clint Dempsey, among other players, probably the best american soccer player in the recent years. He played only 37 minutes this season and then he got sent off. He also missed the opening game of the season for Seattle and this might be one of the reasons why are the Sounders without a point so far and with 5 conceded goals and none scored. Interesting fact is, that none of those 3 games see Seattle finishing the match with 11 players on the pitch. Their centre back, Tony Alfaro was sent off against LAFC, Dempsey got a red card after 37 minutes against FC Dallas and their right back, Kelvin Leerdam enjoyed only 40 minutes of game time in their home game vs Montreal.

Sporting Kansas City had a very good start to the new season, if we don’t count their opening game, which they lost 0-2 at home vs New York City. Even in that game, they were a little bit unlucky. I will also mention, that this team loves to attack. In average, they have 17 goal scoring attempts per game. In general, I think MLS is a very interesting league to watch, teams love to attack, and because of that we see a lot of goal scoring attempts on both sides, lot of goals, etc.
Kansas City are leading the Western Conference with 13 points from 6 matches, losing once, drawing once and winning 4 games. They scored the most goals in the league so far – 12, but they also conceded a lot – 9. If they can tighten the defence a little bit, they can become the title contenders this season.

 

Play Sporting Kansas City @ 1.74 / -136

Bet at BitcoinRush

 

 

Championship: Bristol City – Birmingham

Hi guys!

After a few quiet days I am bringing you another recommended bet. The bet will be from the second highest english football (or soccer for american readers) league, Championship, in a match between Bristol City (8th) and Birmingham (20th).

My projected goals for Bristol are 1.53 goals in this game. They are on a bad form since Christmas, winning only 3 games, drawing 6 and losing 8. They are still on an OK form at home, losing only 1 in their last 6 home games. They still have a chance to fight for promotion and Birmingham’s away form is not the greatest either.

My projected goals for Birmingham are 0.79 goals. They are 1-4 in their last 5 away games and overall they are the second worst away team in the league, scoring 15 and conceding 36 goals so far in the campaign.

Let’s not forget to mention, however, that Bristol have never won against Birmingham when playing at home (0-1-6).

My projected win percentage for Bristol City: 55.05%
My projected odds on Bristol City: 1.82
Bookie’s odds on Bristol City: 2.08

I always recommend to make your own research before placing a bet.

Play Bristol City @ 2.08 (+108)

Bet at BitcoinRush

HUN: DEAC – Zalakeramia

Hey guys!

Today, my bet will be from the hungarian basketball league in a match between DEAC and Zalakeramia.

Bookie’s lines:
DEAC: +5.5
Zalakeramia: -5.5
Totals: 165.5

DEAC is the worst home team in the league, with a record of 3-9 and -101 point difference. At home they score fewer points than the league average by 6 points and concede more by 7. They are also on a 6-game long losing streak at home. They also never won against Zalakeramia at home (0-4) and only once they beat the today’s spread set by the bookies.

On the other hand we have Zalakeramia and I will start off by saying, that they have a reason to play for today! It is the last round of the regular season, and while DEAC’s season is done, if Zalakeramia wins today then under some circumstances they can make the Winner’s stage at the playoffs! I’m sure they will be motivated today, but let’s check the other numbers as well.
Zalakeramia is 6-6 away from home with a point difference of +5. They are an average team and are playing against the weakest home team in the league today. Zalakeramia scores more than the league average away from home by 7 points but also concede more by 2. If we don’t count their loss against Szedeak, then they only lost away from home to the teams above them in the league table. Also, in all their away games where they won, they did not beat the today’s spread only once (out of 6 games).

My projected lines:
DEAC: +13.5
Zalakeramia: -13.5
Totals: 169.5

If you are interested in more bets by me (NBA, Dota 2 esports) you can follow me on Twitter.

Play Zalakeramia -5.5 @ 1.91

Bet at Cloudbet

Dota 2: OpTic – Vici Gaming

Hi guys!

Yesterday I shared another bet from the esports world. It was a match between Vici Gaming and Newbee, from a Dota 2 tournament taking place in China, called DAC. My team (Vici Gaming) won and the bet was a winning bet. I hope this next bet is going to be a winning bet too. I will look at the match between OpTic Gaming and Vici Gaming.

Bookie’s odds:
OpTic: 1.955
Vici Gaming: 1.824

This is a very hard match to predict. On one side, we have OpTic Gaming, not even the best team from their region. They are struggling to collect DPC points throughout the whole season, but recently they stepped up their game. In my opinion, it is thanks to the role swap between 33 and Zai. They look a lot better and the results speak for themselves. They beat TNC and Newbee on Day 1 and the bookies overreacted a little bit and set low odds on them. We can’t forget, that they are only the 12th team in the global team rankings and have 0 DPC points. That means they haven’t gotten deep into the playoffs at any tournament. Short term results are looking great for them.

But they are going up against Vici Gaming. This is going to be third bet where I back them and I have my reasons. I always say, that they have this experienced captain LanM, and it really matters. Not that PPD on the other side is not a good captain, but his team is young, with 2 inexperienced players (CCnC and 33). Vici Gaming are 9th in the global rankings and they are sitting in the 5th place in the DPC rankings with 2160 points. They are delivering at LAN tournaments. I think, they should be bigger favorites here. What scares me is the fact, that they lost against OG (a team without their best player, using their coach as a standin) but then they beat Newbee.

My projected odds:
OpTic: 4.57
Vici Gaming: 1.28

Follow me on Twitter, where I share more bets and projected lines, including NBA.

Play Vici Gaming @ 1.824

Bet at Nitrogensports

Dota 2: Vici Gaming – Newbee

Hi guys!

My bet will be from a Dota 2 tournament called DAC, which is the 2nd biggest tournament of the whole season. It takes place in China and 16 teams are battling for $1.000.000 prize pool.
I am looking at a group stage game between two chinese teams: Vici Gaming and Newbee.

Bookie’s odds:
Vici Gaming: 2.281
Newbee: 1.605

For startes, let me say, that I think the margins are really high in esports. 106.14% on Nitrogensports in this particular game. It is still a young market and we all have to try our best to beat the bookmakers. I hope my analysis and my numbers will help you.

Both teams have their ups and downs and are not dominating the scene. Newbee was the absolut powerhouse of China few months ago and last season too, but they recently went into a minor slump, as they got demolished against EG in a BO3 series 2-0 with both games being shorter than 20 minutes. That is a big deal. In my opinion, short term results matter much more in esports than in other sports. They also lost in the Bucharest Major semifinals against VGJ Thunder 2-0 and they couldn’t beat Fnatic few days ago either, as they exited the Dreamleague tournament after a 2-1 loss in 3rd round of Lower Bracket. Since then, they played 2 qualifiers series in China against VGJ Thunder and EHOME and they won both of them 2-0. However, I am still not convinced by their results at LAN tournaments.

Vici Gaming, that is a roller-coaster of a story. I remember my first bet I shared on this site was when I backed them to win against Team Liquid at ESL One Katowice. I wrote about them, that they had a rough start, but were starting to get louder and louder and more challenging at recent tournaments, they got into 3 grand finals I think but they didn’t win any of them. Well, at Katowice they reached the grand finals once again, but came up short against Virtus Pro, the best team in the world right now and lost 3-1 in a BO5 series. Since then they have been sitting quietly under the radar, underperforming at Bucharest Major where they lost to paiN Gaming, one of the weakest teams there. They are not a bad team at all, they had their time to practice, to come up with new strategies, get rid of stress and get motivated after losing all those grand finals. They have one of the most experienced players as their captain, LanM, who I am sure will try his best and make his team try his best in this tournament.

My odds:
Vici Gaming: 2.000
Newbee: 2.000

Apparently, my numbers say that this game could be a 50:50 game. And I agree. These teams are going through a rough patch currently and they need results. Both teams need the DPC points and the fact that this is a BO1 game, anything can happen. I see some value at Vici Gaming, so I am going to take them. Good luck.

You can follow me on Twitter, where I share all my projected lines. I will also start sharing my NBA projected lines there daily.

Play Vici Gaming @ 2.281

Bet at Nitrogensports

FRA B: Roanne – Poitiers 86

Hi guys.

Today, my bet will be from the second french basketball league, in a match between Chorale Roanne and Poitiers 86.

Bookie’s lines:
Roanne: -13
Poitiers: +13
Totals: 153

Roanne are third in the table with a record of 18-6 and +272 point difference. At home, they score more than the league average by 4.5 points and concede less by 10.

They will face Poitiers 86. They are 13th in the table, with a record of 8-16 and -94 point difference. When they play away, they score fewer than the league average by 0.5 and concede more by 2. They are 3-9 away. This is a match between a strong home team and below average away team.

My projected lines:
Roanne: -19.5
Poitiers: +19.5
Totals: 147.5

 

Play Roanne -13 @ 1.87

Bet at Cloudbet