NBA – New York Knicks at Los Angeles Clippers

Hi guys!

I have a recommended bet today in a game where New York Knicks travel to LA to pay a visit to Clippers.

Bookie’s lines:

New York Knicks: +9
Los Angeles Clippers: -9

Totals: 225.5

Clippers are 16-13 at home, while Knicks are one of the weakest road teams in the league (8-24). About the Knicks, on their road games, almost 75% of their field goal attempts are 2-point attempts and they are averaging a 52% conversion rate from those attempts. I also project around 6 succesful blocks on the Knicks side, which is by 20% more, than the league average of blocks per game (around 5).

Clippers score in average around 108 points at home, while Knicks’ average away points is around 101. In their head-to-head games, these two teams beat the today’s total line only twice since 2010. Clippers have high scoring away games in the last couple of weeks, but at home, they beat the today’s total line only twice in their last 10 games. Clipper’s average game totals in their last 10 home games is 215.1 points. New York Knicks’ last 10 away games averaged 213.5 points. Since 1999, when these two teams met in Los Angeles, they beat the today’s total line only twice, one of those occasions was after an overtime win of Clippers (128-124) in February 2009.

It might look as a risky bet, but the truth is, betting is always risky. What also supports my pick today is my NBA model, where I use advanced NBA stats to project my own lines, which then I compare with bookmaker’s lines to see if there is any considerable difference. My lines for this game:

New York Knicks: +7
Los Angeles Clippers: -7

Totals: 214

You can check my projected lines for all games on my Steemit page. Also, I share more picks on my Twitter.

Play Under 225.5 @ -105 / 1.95

Bet at BitcoinRush

NBA – New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs

Hi guys!

I did not have any play yesterday, because I simply didn’t find anything good to bet on. Before that, my last play, which was also from the NBA, was a hit.

Today I will have a bet in a game where New Orleans Pelicans visit San Antonio Spurs.

Bookies lines:

New Orleans Pelicans +4.5
San Antonio Spurs -4.5

Totals: 218.5

San Antonio Spurs are 6-4 in their last 10 home games, and in those games, the average total points are 202.6. According to advanced NBA stats, San Antonio are the 6th best home team in a defensive aspect, and this is also supported by the fact, that the Total Lines on San Antonio Spurs are pretty low in average, compared to the rest of NBA. Spurs are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings against the Pelicans, and in their last 10 home head-to-head games, they have never beaten the today’s total line.

If we look at the Pelicans, they are doing very well recently. They are on a 6-game winning streak, and 3 of those games were decided in overtime. Because of that, it looks like in these games there is a lot of points scored. But if we take only the number of points scored in regular time, we see that the average total points scored in their last 10 games is 211.2.

My projected lines:

New Orleans Pelicans +4.5
San Antonio Spurs -4.5

Totals: 210.5

You can find the rest of my projected lines on Steemit. You can follow me on Twitter for more bets.

Play Under 218.5 @ -100 / 2.00

Bet on BitcoinRush

 

NBA – Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors

Hi guys!

My bet will be from NBA today. We have 10 games being played today, huge card, but I found only one suitable bet. I create my own projected lines for NBA for every match, which I compare with the bookmaker’s lines. If I see a significant difference, it is a qualified bet for me. I always check some other information that could make me stay away from such games, but there isn’t any today.

The lines for this game are set at:

Toronto Raptors -10 / Detroit Pistons +10

Totals: 218.5

Toronto Raptors are the best home team according to my numbers taken from advanced NBA stats. They have a 82.8% winrate at home, scoring 113 points in average. They are also the 4th best defensive team at home, again, according to these numbers, when it comes to points allowed to score against them at home, sitting in 101.6 points in average. They are the 2nd best team at blocking opponent’s attempts, as they average 6.3 blocks per game, only Golden State Warriors are blocking better (8.1 avg). They are 8-2 in their last 10 home games and are averaging a 209.9 tally of total points scored.

Detroit Pistons are a below average road team, having a 33% winrate in away games (9-18), scoring 101.2 points in average. More than 67% of their scoring attempts are 2P field goals, but their scoring efficiency from these attempts is barely over 50%. They are 1-9 in their last 10 road games, and the average total points in these games is 208.2.

Now, the most interest thing for me are their head-to-head games. In their last 10 meetings, they are averaging 198.9 total points scored. If we wanted to find a game between these two teams, where they beat the today’s line on Total points scored, we would have to go back to January 2015, when the Raptors won 114-110.

My projected lines for this game:

Toronto Raptors -13 / Detroit Pistons +13

Totals: 208.5

You can find my projected lines for all the games on my Steemit page. You can also follow me on Twitter, where I share more bets.

 

Play Under 218.5 @ -108 / 1.93

Bet at BitcoinRush

 

Italy Lega A2 – Trieste vs Mantova

Hi guys!

We started off with a win yesterday and I hope we can have another winning day today. I wandered over to the european basketball leagues and found one play in the Italian second league.

We have a match between Trieste (2nd) and Mantova (9th) in the East division. There is a huge difference between Trieste’s form at home and away from home. While they are unbeaten in 11 matches at home this season, they are 0-6 in their last 6 away games. They are playing at home this time, and they are the best scoring team at home in the league. They are averaging 89.5 points scored at home, while the league average is 80 points. In average, they beat their opponents by a little bit more than 18 points when they are playing at home.

If we look at Mantova’s numbers, we can see that they are an average road team. They score around 71 points in average, while the league average is 74 points in road games. They are on a 4 game losing streak away from home, including a beating by 34 points by Ferrara (8th). In the games they lost away from home, they are averaging a 12 points beating by their opponents.

These two teams already met this season a home game for Mantova, in which they lost 74-84.

My projected spread: -19.5 / +19.5

Bookie’s spreads: -12 / +12

Play Trieste -12 @ 1.851

Bet on Nitrogensports

Marek

#bitcoinbettors

Dota 2 (ESL One Katowice) – Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming

Hi guys.

Welcome to my first recommended bet and analysis. We are currently at ESL One Katowice, at the first Dota 2 tournament taking place in Poland. It is a 16-team Major and this matchup in the
quarterfinals is the second time that these teams will meet at this tournament. They already played in the Group stages, and Vici Gaming won 2-1. Team Liquid managed to scrape one game, it was very close and could have easily gone in Vici Gaming’s favor. Vici Gaming is currently sitting in the 5th place in the Global ranking (made by Gosugamers) and are looking to claim the number one Regional rank spot from Newbee, who underperformed at ESL One Katowice (loss vs Kinguin and a brutally beaten by Evil Geniuses).

Vici Gaming look like a quiet team just minding their own business, staying off the radar. They had a very rough start to the Dota Pro Circuit season, managing to qualify to only two LAN tournaments. However, the breakthrough in their performances came in November last year, when they finished 2nd at Dota PIT Tournament (losing to Team Liquid 3:2 in the grand finals) and qualified for Captains Draft Season 4. They ultimately went on to lose in the finals again, this time against Team Secret, in a thrilling best of 5 series. Those games were ridiculously close, Vici Gaming were leading in both Game 1 and Game 4 by a huge amount but Team Secret managed to turn it around. However, that was the time when Vici Gaming started to get noticed by stronger teams as a potential future threat for LAN tournaments. They still had their ups and downs (losing in Chinese qualifiers to LGD or EHOME, or finishing second at yet another tournament Perfect World Masters) but they became this team with huge potential for future upsets, when playing against the top teams. At ESL One Katowice they already cause two upsets as they beat the favorites OG 1-0 in the first round of Group stages and beat Team Liquid in the second round. They looked really well and strong, their team chemistry was almost flawless. Their captain is Lanm, one of the biggest legends in the Chinese Dota 2 scene. He has been around a long time, he is an experienced player, drafter and captain. The reason why this is important, is that Team Liquid played vs Team Secret today and won 2-1. In both of the games that they won, it was because they outdrafter Team Secret and they easily won both of those games. In the game, where the draft was very close, where none of the teams had a huge advantage, Team Secret outperformed Team Liquid and with better strategy, team fights and game coordination they managed to win. So it is very important for Vici Gaming to get a good draft, otherwise they might have a hard time. I believe this shouldn’t a problem for them, as I said Lanm is a very good captain and drafter, and they already showed they can play against teams that are better than them on paper.

However, let’s not forget Team Liquid. We are talking about the best team in the world right now, and they are holding that position for quite some time (7 months now). The fact is, that Team Secret or even Newbee came very close to claiming that spot, but Team Liquid always managed to perform just enough to hold on to the 1st position in Gosugamers’s team rankings. They are also in the second place when it comes to Dota Pro Circuit points, only behind Team Secret. What I really like about this team, is that they can adjust like no other team. They get beaten by a strategy? You bet Kuroky, Team Liquid’s captain will have something up his sleeve to beat that strategy. They get outperformed by another team? You bet they will find a way to beat that team when they meet next time. Team Liquid won The International 2017 in August. Many people believe, that after winning the tournament of all tournaments, the team will get sloppy, will care less, won’t be motivated that much anymore. Not in this case. Team Liquid is the best team in the Dota 2 scene this season and they always come back stronger. They can even adjust their players, when they need to. They swap positions, heroes, just to fit to the chosen strategy. This is something a lot of teams can not do. Leading up to The International 2017, they had a very good run. They won 3 tournaments in a row, they won TI7 and they also won the first tournament of the new season, beating Mineski in the grand finals of Starladder 3-1. And even though they won the next tournament, their magic slowly went away. They weren’t this unbeatable team anymore, some teams figured them out. Virtus Pro, Team Secret and even Newbee beat them in the coming months. Only 3 weeks ago they lost to Newbee 3-2 in the grand finals of  ESL One Genting. They are 8-3 in this tournament (Vici Gaming is 5-1) and no wonder the bookmakers favor them. I also give them a bigger chance to win this game, but let’s compare my odds and the bookmakers odds.

Team Liquid chance to win according to my numbers – 56% (1.786 odds)
Vici Gaming chance to win according to my numbers – 44%. (2.27 odds)

Bookmaker’s odds on Team Liquid: 1.416 @ Nitrogensports
Bookmaker’s odds on Vici Gaming: 2.814 @ Nitrogensports

Because of that, I see value with Vici Gaming. According to my sheer numbers, they should not be such huge underdogs. If I take into consideration the games that have been played in this tournament, Vici Gaming are looking much better than usually, they are challenging for the grand finals and I can’t see why they shouldn’t be able to beat Team Liquid. They already did it once, they are smart enough to not use the same strategy, they are experienced players led by an experienced Dota 2 veteran and they also have young blood hungry for a LAN victory. Or at least to advance further for more DPC points. Vici Gaming are currently sitting in the 8th place and are threatened to lose the final spot for The International 8 invites (the first 8 teams from the DPC season are automatically invited to TI8) to Fnatic, who advanced to semifinals yesterday. That should be extra motivation for Vici Gaming.

Bet on Vici Gaming @ 2.814 (Nitrogensports)

All our bets are 1 unit. If you find better odds, don’t hesitate to take them. There is value with Vici Gaming and would be a qualified bet for me down to odds of around 2.65.

Thank you for your attention. Best of luck to all of us.
You can also follow me on Twitter for more bets.

 

Marek

#bitcoinbettors