Nashville Predators are on fire. They are 7-1 to the season and are playing very good ice hockey in both defence and offense. They score 3.4 goals per game and allow 1.94 goals per game. One of the reasons why I think they will be among the top teams this season are their goalies. They have two very good goalies in Rinne and Saros. Both are playing and both are making good saves. If we check their starts, Rinne started 5 games and Saros started 4 games and it is projected to start this game too. So, they had both a chance to play, which I think is not that bad, because the season is long and if you have such good goalies you can afford this and you will need them both for good results. What I want to say here is that Rinne is injured now, but I am not concerned at all with Saros in the net.
Saros GAA%- number is even slightly better than Rinne’s number and both goalies have QS above 60% since last season.
On the other side we have San Jose, one of the top teams in last years and they are 4-3 to the season, but I don’t doubt, that they will be among the best this season too, especially now, when they bring Erik Karlsson from Ottawa.
They will probably start with Martin Jones, who is sitting on 3-3 record so far with SV% of 0.907.
Bookmakers have San Jose Sharks as a small underdog here at around +114, but I think they should be little bit bigger favourite. My betting model has them at much bigger number and if we take into account, that Joe Thornton is not playing and if we take into accoun, that home team is 48-19 in last 67 meetings and if we take into account bad Sharks record in Nashville (3-13 in last 16 games in Nashville), I think we have some solid odds on Nashville at around -126 (1.79).
https://bitcoinbettors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/JIRI-PICKS-2.png315560MBhttp://bitcoinbettors.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/bbbettorstransp12.pngMB2018-10-23 14:06:422018-10-23 14:06:42NHL Betting Prediction: San Jose at Nashville
This is one of those games, where looking at pitchers ERA only could be wrong. And I like such games, because there is hidden value in ERA number.
So, what I am talking about?
We have two pitchers on the mound where one pitcher has better ERA, but based his performance so far this season, he is not better pitcher. In fact we can expect, that his ERA will go up. Gausman, who will start for Braves is 10-10 to the season with ERA of 3.92. He pitchers 172 innings and has 135 strike outs with whip 1.300 and in lats 3 games his whip went up to 1.53 with ERA of 4.41. Phillies hitters faced him in 83 at bats and posted BA of 0.301
On the other side we have Velasquez, who is 8-11 this season with ERA of 4.53 and if we check his last couple of games and his past performance against Atlanta, he has not good numbers. His last 3 games ERA is 9.82 and he is 0-5 against Atlanta with 3 straight losses this season. So, not really good numbers, but I don’t like to focus on last couple of days or past pitchers performances against any team, because things are changing and it is not recommended to focus on short term results. So, if we check his performance so far, his SIER is better than Gausman’s SIERA. And if we check his strike out ratio, he has been great this season with 155 strike outs in 139 innings. I believe he is playing better, than his ERA shows at this moment.
In fact I think that he is playing slightly better than Gausman and we can expect his ERA going down and be better.
When we talk about those two teams, both teams are nice surprise this season. Honestly if anyone would tell be that both teams would have positive record at this time of the season, I would not believe him. But both teams are playing well and Philadelphia Phillies hold the record of 78-73, while Atlanta Braves 84-86.
Philadelphia Phillies score 4.3 runs per game and when it comes to hitting, they are just around average team in the league (#17 out of 30 teams). Atlanta on the other side scores 4.7 runs per game and are slightly better offensive team than Phillies (#14 out of 30 teams).
But I think the difference today will be made in pitching. Philadelphia has #6 best bullpen in the league, while Braves only #20 in the league. At the start of the game, I think that Velasquez can pitch much better and I also think, that his ERA doesn’t show his true quality. This is why I would expect that his ERA will go down. Secondly, he will also have better bullpen support, because Phillies have one of the best bullpens in the league (#6 out of 30 teams). Atlanta Braves bullpen is just #20.
According to my projections, I think that the odds should be lower on Phillies. I have projected with my betting model, that Phillies will have 52.47% of chance to win this game. And the bookmakers have them as an underdog of +136. With positive EV and positive adjKelly, I think we have a value bet on Phillies today.
Milwaukee Brewers bring Gio Gonzalez to their team and they are serious about playoffs this season. He is one experienced left handed pitcher who can give a lot of value to the team. Despite I don’t think he is among the top pitchers in the game, his experience can be crucial in some moments, especially later if Milwaukee reach playoffs.
Gio Gonzalez played rest of the season for Washington Nationals, with the record 7-11, ERA of 4.57.
San Francisco on the other side will start with Stratton, who is 9-8 to the season with ERA of 4.72. He struck 89 hitters in 120 innings this season and in his last couple of games, he played really well. ERA of 1.77 and whip 0.689 in last 3 games. But of course 3 games are small sample size to make any conclusions and if we compare both pitcher with other ERA-metrics, I don’t give any huge advantage here to Giants. I rank Stratton as league average pitcher and Gio Gonzalez just little below league average pitcher.
But I think the big difference between those two teams are in other parts of the game. First of all, Milwaukee has one of the best bullpens in the league. I rank their bullpen as 4th best in the league and if we check only ERA, they hold it at 3.27 at home. San Francisco bullpen I rank 14th. I give small advantage here to the Brewers.
Brewers also have better hitting team this season. They score 4.5 runs per game (at home 4.6) and I rank their hitting above league average in all categories. I have them 11th in overall hitting, 10th vs RHP and they are also playing well right now (5th best hitting team in last 30 days). In last 9 games, they lost only 2. On the other side San Francisco lost 6 straight games and they are struggling on the road with record of 29-44. They also score less than Milwaukee (3.9 runs) and they will need to face Gio Gonzalez, who is left handed pitcher. Giants score only 3.5 runs versus lefties.
Bookmakers odds and projections
Bookmakers opened the odds of 1.61 on Milwaukee. Based on my betting model, the fair price on Milwaukee should be at around 1.44. In other words, I would expect $44 of profit, if I bet on Milwaukee $100 and of course if they win. Bookmaers would pay me more ($61) and because of that there is small value with Milwaukee Brewers.
I give Milwaukee Brewers with Gonzalez on the mound cca 69.47% of chance to win this game.
Giants lost 4 out of 5 meetings. Giants lost 6 out of last 7 starts and 97 out of 143 games versus winning teams.
Recommended bet and reasons behind it
San Francisco season is probably over. Yes, of course, there is always a chance, but they knew it when they started playing in September and they still collected 6 straight losses in last 6 games. I think they simply don’t have enough quality right now. Posey is injured, Sandoval is injured and they traded Mccutchen to Yankees. Enough said.
On the other side Milwaukee are looking much better and they need to take the advantage in the games against weaker teams. Gio Gonzalez will definitely try to show good effort in Milwaukee in front of his new fans. He pitched the last time on August 29th and he should be well rested too.
What a game yesterday, Atlanta Braves were leading by 3-0 until the end of the game and then Colorado Rockies came back with 3 runs to tie the game in 9th inning. Right in the next inning they scored 2 more and the win went to Colorado. It was definitely frustrating for Braves how they lost three straight games at home, but they will try to avoid a home sweep.
Both teams have a winning record and late in the season every win is very important. Colorado Rockies are 66-56 to the season, on the other side we have Atlanta Braves with the record of 68-53. What is interesting with Colorado is that they are playing very good on the road this season. They hold away record of 35-29 and playing on them on the road was profitable so far with +15.4 units. But also Atlanta Braves are playing good baseball and they hold good home record of 34-26, which made a profit of +5.70 units for bettors.
Atlanta Braves are scores 4.9 runs per game with batting average of 0.262, and if we check other much more important batting metrics, they are very solid hitting team and I rank them as #11 best hitting team in the league.
Colorado on the other side scores 4.7 runs per game and I have them as 8th best hitting team against left handed pitchers, but unfortunately for them, they will not play against left handed pitcher, but against very solid right handed pitcher on the road and they score 4.4 runs per on the road with not impressive batting average (0.232) and 4.6 runs per game versus RHP.
With current hitting situation I give small advantage to Atlanta here.
CLOSE PITCHING MATCH UP
Atlanta Braves will start with Anibal Sanchez, who is 6-3 to the season with ERA of 3.17. He has been very solid this season and I rank him above league average. 88 strikeouts in 88 innings and what is very interesting is that he is 4-0 against Colorado in his career with ERA of 1.99 (5-1 team). But of course this should not mean anything, but it is interesting information, that he always played well against the Rockies.
Chacin will start on the other side for Colorado and he has been very good pitcher for this team this season. Record 10-9, ERA of 4.58, but if we check his numbers little bit deeper, I don’t rank him lower than Anibal Sanchez on the other side. What is very interesting is that he has been playing well outside of Coors Field. His road ERA is 3.04 and ha played well in last couple of games too. But what is also interesting, is that one of the worst games this season he had exactly against Atlanta. He walked 6 Atlanta hitters and finished with 7 ER in that game.
Atlanta lost a game yesterday after they were leading 8 innings. It was a blown save from their bullpen, but we can not make judgement about their pitching stuff after that game and if we take a look at a bigger picture, I give Braves advantage here. ERA 4.12 and I rank them as above league average bullpens (#11). Colorado on the other side has a bullpen with ERA of 5.18 and I rank them just below league average (#17). Their away numbers are little bit better as we know, that their home ballpark is not pitcher friendly, but still I think that Atlanta will have small advantage here.
PROJECTIONS, +EV and BOOKMAKERS ODDS
Bookmakers opened the odds at around 1.80 and since then the odds dropped little bit to around 1.76. But I still think we have some value here. I have projected, that Atlanta will have 64.03% of chance winning this game. My fair odds on Atlanta braves are at -178 and because of that there is some value.
I believe that Atlanta will make extra effort to avoid a sweep today. Of course this is not a guarantee for anything, but if we check schedule right now, Colorado is going home after this game. This is the last game for them in the east and honestly they made a great job. Yesterday, they were little bit lucky, but who cares, at the end of the day they count another win.
When it comes to pitching, I don’t give any advantage at the start of the game. I think we have two very solid pitchers on the mound and I would not make a big deal out of pitchers performances in the past against those two teams (ATL – Sanchez 4-0 vs Col with ERA 1.99, COL – Chacin 0-1 vs Atl with ERA of 13.49). But I will give small advantage to Atlante late in the game, because based on my numbers they have better bullpen.
Hitting will be also on Atlanta Braves side and especially because we have two right handed pitchers on the mound. Both teams are very good against lefties, but when it comes to hitting against right handed pitchers I give advantage to Braves.
So, after three straight losses, I recommend to take Atlanta Braves for a bounce back and avoiding a sweep.
San Francisco are one of the hottest teams right now, when it comes to hitting. I rank them as the best hitting team in last 30 days and this is something we could expect, because with Lomgoria, Mccutchen, Posey, Sandoval, Crawford and other players, they have a lot of hitting potential. Despite some of those players were at the peak two or three years ago they still have a lot of potential and can explode anytime. Right now, they are playing some very good baseball.
They will face Miami Marlins, one of the weakest teams in the league and with the odds of 1.84 I think we have some solid price.
San Francisco will start with Stratton, Miami will go with Richards and I don’t see any huge advantage on any side. When it comes to bullpen, both bullpens have performed at pretty same level so far this season and I don’t see any advantage in pitching tonight.
But I see big advantage on hitting side. As I mentioned, San Francisco has a lot of potential with some very good players in the lineup and they showed in last 30 days, that they are hot. Miami on the other side is second worst ranked hitting team in the league.
According to my betting model, San Francisco should be a favourite of 1.70 and with the odds around 1.84 we have small value with Giants.
Seattle and LA Angels are one of the most hottest teams right now in MLB. Seattle won 8 out of last 10 games and Angels won 7 out of 10 games.
Both teams will start with left handed pitchers and despite Angels will have small pithing advantage at the start as I rank Heaney higher than LeBlanc, I think that the last third of the game will belong to Seattle Mariners.
Heaney is 3-4 to the season with ERA of 3.12 and 58 strike outs in 60 innings. In last two games he had one bad game, where he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings and he also had one very good game, where he allowed only 1 hit and 0 runs in 9 innings versus Kansas. But we must also know, that those are two of the weakest teams in the league.
LeBlanc on the other side has weaker ERA – metrics numbers and he comes to this game after he lost against Houston. But Houston is one of the best teams anyway.
We will see two left handed pitchers and Seattle have slightly better numbers against lefties. They score 4.6 runs per game with batting average of 0.265 versus lefties, while Angels score 4.4 runs per game with batting average of 0.247 versus lefties. According to other hitting stats I also rank Seattle better versus lefties.
When it comes to bullpen, this is the last third of the game I give advantage to Seattle, because I rank their bullpen as third best in the league, while on the other side Angels are just an average bullpen team.
Bookmakers set Mariners as a small underdog and according to my betting model, I give Mariners 55.23% of chance and this gives me small value on Seattle and LeBlanc.
We recommend to take Seattle Mariners at 2.03 / +103
San Diego Padres are one of the worst teams in the league and they are more competitive at home, but I think they could struggle most of the season on the road. Right now, they are sitting on the record of 12-28 and they beat Pittsburgh yesterday, but they were also lucky, because Pittsburgh left 13 batters on bases.
On the other side we have Pittsburgh Pirates with the record of 28-16 and they are playing very solid baseball so far. And at home, they are even better the record of 15-7.
San Diego will start with Clayton Richard, left handed pitcher who holds ERA of 5.20 and on the road ERA of 8.36. So, at the first look, pretty bad numbers, but if we check his performance and his other ERA-metrics, we can expect that his ERA will go down and he is playing much better than his initial ERA numbers show. He struck out 50 batters in 53 innings and in his last 2 games he was very sharp. Striking out 8 against Washington Nationals and 10 against St Louis Cardinals.
Still, if we compare today’s starters, I don’t give any advantage to San Diego. Kingham who will start for Pittsburgh played only two games so far, but he pitched well. 16 strike outs in 13 innings. 7 strike outs against Milwaukee and 9 against St Louis. His ERA is 2.92 and we can expect, that his ERA will go up little bit. But still, if we compare the numbers with Richard’s numbers on the other side there will be not big difference at the start of the game.
But I see Pittsburgh’s advantage later in the game. First of all Pittsburgh is playing at home, where they are strong. Secondly, they lost yesterday and they will try to win this series, despite we should not rely on such things, because San Diego also have their own plans for this game. But Pittsburgh is better overall. They score more, they have better hitting team and both teams have very good bullpen with maybe better bullpen on Pirates side.
Bookmakers offer the odds of around 1.70 on Pittsburgh and I have projected, that Pittsburgh should be much bigger favourite. I was not fooled by Richard ERA numbers and I understand that he has better stuff and his ERA will go down, but I still don’t see any pitching advantage here from San Diego side, because Kingham was very solid too. Better hitting team, slightly better bullpen, playing at home, trying to bounce back and win this searies….
This is the last game in this series between Baltimore and Cleveland. Indians lost first game, but then they outscored Baltimore in next two games by 11-3.
Bookmakers opened the odds at around 3.01 on Baltimore and those odds were simply too high and the value on Baltimore if you could catch that number was great. But despite line movement, I think the price around 2.5 is the last price, where I think there is still small value on Orioles.
Baltimore will start with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.57 and 19 strike outs in 21 innings. On the other side we have Carrasco, who is 3-0 to the season with ERA of 2.6 and 21 strike outs in 27 innings.
According to my numbers, we have pitching advantage on Indians side, but with Gausman we also have above league average pitcher and if we check his numbers against Cleveland he is 2-1, ERA 1.93.
Both teams are stuggling offensively so far this season. I would expect especially from Indians to score more, but they score only 3.6 runs per game with BA of 0.219.
Baltimore on the other side score 3.3 runs per game with batting average of 0.215 and we have pretty same offensive numbers on both teams.
I still rank Cleveland higher than Baltimore and Carrasco as a better pitcher than Gausman, but I think that the odds are little bit to big on a home team. I have projected with my betting model, that Baltimore should be underdog of around +116 and because of that there is a small value in the odds of around +150 or more.
Colorado beat Pittsburgh in first two games, despite they are playing on the road and despite they are playing without their key offensive player Arenado, who is serving suspension. Today they will face Chad Kuhl.
Chad Kuhl is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.74 and the the best game he played this season was against Cincinnati at home, where he struck out 7 hitters in 5 innings.
Colorado on the other side will start with Freeland, a left handed pitcher, who is 0-2 to the season with ERA of 4.50.
According to my rankings and my betting model, I don’t give any huge pitching advantage to any team here. But I like Pittsburgh because of better offense so far. And if we take into account, that Pittsburgh will try to avoid sweep and Colorado will miss one of their best offensive players, I think Pittsburgh is the play according to current offered odds.
Pittsburgh score 5.2 runs per game with batting average of 0.259. Colorado on the other side score 3.9 runs per game with batting average of 0.215. Note also that Pittsburgh Pirates are perfect 7-0 this season in day games.
This is the second game of the series in NHL playoffs and anyone who watched the first game, when Boston beat Toronto, knows, that the game was much closer. The final result was 5-1, but the result doesn’t show the true picture about the game at least most of the game. Toronto had couple of great chances and Boston was lucky at the result 1-1, that they didn’t receive a goal. If Toronto would score in that time, the game could go in different direction. What I want to say is that Toronto showed one more time, that they can play against Boston. And I believe they will show this today too.
Boston and Toronto met 4 times in a regular season and Toronto beat Boston in 3 of them. They also beat Boston in 7 of 9 games.
Bookmakers have odds of more than 2.50 on Toronto and I think we have some nice value here. I have projected Toronto at around 2.1 and I still give them less than 50% of chance, but when we talk as a sports bettors I think that the value is on their side.
The best odds you can get are at Bitcoinrush. They accept US players.
https://bitcoinbettors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2.png315560MBhttp://bitcoinbettors.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/bbbettorstransp12.pngMB2018-04-14 14:07:162018-04-14 14:07:16NHL - Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins