SF Giants at Miami Marlins

San Francisco are one of the hottest teams right now, when it comes to hitting. I rank them as the best hitting team in last 30 days and this is something we could expect, because with Lomgoria, Mccutchen, Posey, Sandoval, Crawford and other players, they have a lot of hitting potential. Despite some of those players were at the peak two or three years ago they still have a lot of potential and can explode anytime. Right now, they are playing some very good baseball.

They will face Miami Marlins, one of the weakest teams in the league and with the odds of 1.84 I think we have some solid price.

San Francisco will start with Stratton, Miami will go with Richards and I don’t see any huge advantage on any side. When it comes to bullpen, both bullpens have performed at pretty same level so far this season and I don’t see any advantage in pitching tonight.

But I see big advantage on hitting side. As I mentioned, San Francisco has a lot of potential with some very good players in the lineup and they showed in last 30 days, that they are hot. Miami on the other side is second worst ranked hitting team in the league.

According to my betting model, San Francisco should be a favourite of 1.70 and with the odds around 1.84 we have small value with Giants.

Play San Francisco at 1.84

The best odds: Bitcoinrush

MLB – LA Angels (Heaney) @ Seattle Mariners (LeBlanc)

Seattle and LA Angels are one of the most hottest teams right now in MLB. Seattle won 8 out of last 10 games and Angels won 7 out of 10 games.

Both teams will start with left handed pitchers and despite Angels will have small pithing advantage at the start as I rank Heaney higher than LeBlanc, I think that the last third of the game will belong to Seattle Mariners.

Heaney is 3-4 to the season with ERA of 3.12 and 58 strike outs in 60 innings. In last two games he had one bad game, where he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings and he also had one very good game, where he allowed only 1 hit and 0 runs in 9 innings versus Kansas. But we must also know, that those are two of the weakest teams in the league.

LeBlanc on the other side has weaker ERA – metrics numbers and he comes to this game after he lost against Houston. But Houston is one of the best teams anyway.

We will see two left handed pitchers and Seattle have slightly better numbers against lefties. They score 4.6 runs per game with batting average of 0.265 versus lefties, while Angels score 4.4 runs per game with batting average of 0.247 versus lefties. According to other hitting stats I also rank Seattle better versus lefties.

When it comes to bullpen, this is the last third of the game I give advantage to Seattle, because I rank their bullpen as third best in the league, while on the other side Angels are just an average bullpen team.

Bookmakers set Mariners as a small underdog and according to my betting model, I give Mariners 55.23% of chance and this gives me small value on Seattle and LeBlanc.

We recommend to take Seattle Mariners at 2.03 / +103

The best odds you get at Bitcoinrush (Us Friendly)

San Diego Padres (Richard) @ Pittsburgh (Kingham)

San Diego Padres are one of the worst teams in the league and they are more competitive at home, but I think they could struggle most of the season on the road. Right now, they are sitting on the record of 12-28 and they beat Pittsburgh yesterday, but they were also lucky, because Pittsburgh left 13 batters on bases.

On the other side we have Pittsburgh Pirates with the record of 28-16 and they are playing very solid baseball so far. And at home, they are even better the record of 15-7.

San Diego will start with Clayton Richard, left handed pitcher who holds ERA of 5.20 and on the road ERA of 8.36. So, at the first look, pretty bad numbers, but if we check his performance and his other ERA-metrics, we can expect that his ERA will go down and he is playing much better than his initial ERA numbers show. He struck out 50 batters in 53 innings and in his last 2 games he was very sharp. Striking out 8 against Washington Nationals and 10 against St Louis Cardinals.

Still, if we compare today’s starters, I don’t give any advantage to San Diego. Kingham who will start for Pittsburgh played only two games so far, but he pitched well. 16 strike outs in 13 innings. 7 strike outs against Milwaukee and 9 against St Louis. His ERA is 2.92 and we can expect, that his ERA will go up little bit. But still, if we compare the numbers with Richard’s numbers on the other side there will be not big difference at the start of the game.

But I see Pittsburgh’s advantage later in the game. First of all Pittsburgh is playing at home, where they are strong. Secondly, they lost yesterday and they will try to win this series, despite we should not rely on such things, because San Diego also have their own plans for this game. But Pittsburgh is better overall. They score more, they have better hitting team and both teams have very good bullpen with maybe better bullpen on Pirates side.

Bookmakers offer the odds of around 1.70 on Pittsburgh and I have projected, that Pittsburgh should be much bigger favourite. I was not fooled by Richard ERA numbers and I understand that he has better stuff and his ERA will go down, but I still don’t see any pitching advantage here from San Diego side, because Kingham was very solid too. Better hitting team, slightly better bullpen, playing at home, trying to bounce back and win this searies….

Play Pittsburgh Pirates 1.71 at Bitcoinrush

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MLB – Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) at Baltimore Orioles (Gausman)

This is the last game in this series between Baltimore and Cleveland. Indians lost first game, but then they outscored Baltimore in next two games by 11-3.

Bookmakers opened the odds at around 3.01 on Baltimore and those odds were simply too high and the value on Baltimore if you could catch that number was great. But despite line movement, I think the price around 2.5 is the last price, where I think there is still small value on Orioles.

Baltimore will start with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.57 and 19 strike outs in 21 innings. On the other side we have Carrasco, who is 3-0 to the season with ERA of 2.6 and 21 strike outs in 27 innings.

According to my numbers, we have pitching advantage on Indians side, but with Gausman we also have above league average pitcher and if we check his numbers against Cleveland he is 2-1, ERA 1.93.

Both teams are stuggling offensively so far this season. I would expect especially from Indians to score more, but they score only 3.6 runs per game with BA of 0.219.

Baltimore on the other side score 3.3 runs per game with batting average of 0.215 and we have pretty same offensive numbers on both teams.

I still rank Cleveland higher than Baltimore and Carrasco as a better pitcher than Gausman, but I think that the odds are little bit to big on a home team. I have projected with my betting model, that Baltimore should be underdog of around +116 and because of that there is a small value in the odds of around +150 or more.

Play Baltimore +156 at Bitcoinrush 

MLB – Colorado (Freeland) at Pittsburgh (Kuhl)

Colorado beat Pittsburgh in first two games, despite they are playing on the road and despite they are playing without their key offensive player Arenado, who is serving suspension. Today they will face Chad Kuhl.

Chad Kuhl is 1-1 to the season with ERA of 5.74 and the the best game he played this season was against Cincinnati at home, where he struck out 7 hitters in 5 innings.

Colorado on the other side will start with Freeland, a left handed pitcher, who is 0-2 to the season with ERA of 4.50.

According to my rankings and my betting model, I don’t give any huge pitching advantage to any team here. But I like Pittsburgh because of better offense so far. And if we take into account, that Pittsburgh will try to avoid sweep and Colorado will miss one of their best offensive players, I think Pittsburgh is the play according to current offered odds.

Pittsburgh score 5.2 runs per game with batting average of 0.259. Colorado on the other side score 3.9 runs per game with batting average of 0.215. Note also that Pittsburgh Pirates are perfect 7-0 this season in day games.

Play Pittsburgh 1.86 (best odds at Bitcoinrush)

NHL – Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins

This is the second game of the series in NHL playoffs and anyone who watched the first game, when Boston beat Toronto, knows, that the game was much closer. The final result was 5-1, but the result doesn’t show the true picture about the game at least most of the game. Toronto had couple of great chances and Boston was lucky at the result 1-1, that they didn’t receive a goal. If Toronto would score in that time, the game could go in different direction. What I want to say is that Toronto showed one more time, that they can play against Boston. And I believe they will show this today too.

Boston and Toronto met 4 times in a regular season and Toronto beat Boston in 3 of them. They also beat Boston in 7 of 9 games.

Bookmakers have odds of more than 2.50 on Toronto and I think we have some nice value here. I have projected Toronto at around 2.1 and I still give them less than 50% of chance, but when we talk as a sports bettors I think that the value is on their side.

Play Toronto -153

The best odds you can get are at Bitcoinrush. They accept US players.

NHL: San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks

Playoffs started in NHL and the latest game tonight is between San Jose and Anaheim. They played 4 games this season and San Jose beat Anaheim in 3 of them. But at the end of the season, Anaheim found their momentum and if they can bring this here, I think we have better team with Anaheim tonight.

Anaheim lost only 2 games in last 11 games in a regular season. They finished with the record of 44-38 and at home with the record 26-15. They score 2.9 goals per game and allow 2.6. At home they are even stronger, where they allow only 2.5 goals per game and at the same time score 3.1.

San Jose on the other side is 45-37 to the season, but they are going on the road in this game and they have losing road record (20-21), where they score 2.8 goals per game and allow 3.

According to my projections, I give Anaheim 62.79% of chance to win this game. My fair odds are Anaheim -169 (1.59) and San Jose +169 (2.69). Bitcoinrush has Anaheim at -140 (1.71) and the odds already dropped on the Ducks, but there is still small value.

Both teams have good goalies and according to latest information John Gibson could be in the net for Anaheim. But anyway even if he doesn’t start, they have one of the best two goalies in the league.

I am going with Anaheim here, because I think they found their momentum at the right time and we have one strong home team against a team that has losing record on the road. I don’t see any advantage in the net, we also know that those two teams know each other and those small things could be the key.

Note also that San Jose is still playing without Joe Thornton, who is big miss for them since January. Without him and especially without his experience San Jose is definitely weaker them.

Play Anaheim -140 (Bitcoinrush)

NHL – Vancouver Canucks at St Louis Blues

Vancouver beat Chicago Blackhawks yesterday and this is a back to back situation for them. They are not playing for anything anymore and they also miss couple of players, including their most important player – Boeser.  I think that today’s game will be much different than that one yesterday and this is because of couple of reasons.

First of all Chicago is having bad season and they are also not playing for anything. They know that the season is over for them and I wouldn’t make a big deal out of that game. St. Louis on the other side is playing for a playoffs. They are basically in a must-win situation now, because they are 3 points behind the last placed wild card team.

They beat Boston in the last game, which was a very nice game for their momentum. And today they must beat much weaker team, who will probably play with their backup goalie (Nilsson instead of Markstrom) and who is struggling with injuries on a B2B.

I give St. Louis advantage both in the net and with skaters. Nilsson, who might start for Vancouver tonight is 0-3 in last 4 starts with SV% of 0.87.

Note also, that Vancouver lost 4 straight games in St Louis. I will take St Louis -1.5 in this game.

Play St Louis Blues -1.5 at 1.95

Bet at bitcoinrush

 

NHL – Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames

Anaheim Ducks are a small underdog against Calgary tonight and they are coming to this game after three straight wins. They gained some nice momentum in last games, when they beat Vancouver, Detroit and New Jersey. Pretty easy schedule, except New Jersey, but still, three wins are good before 4 game road trip.

They will face Calgary Flames, who lost 3 straight games and are coming home from road trip. They lost against San Jose, Vegas and Arizona.

According to my betting model, Anaheim will have better chance to win this game in this situation. I give them 57.45% of chance to win this game and this gives me the odds of 1.74 on them. Because bookmakers offer the odds of 2 or even more, I think there is a value with Anaheim.

Both teams have losing season (Anaheim 36-37, Calgary 35-39), but what is very interesting with Calgary is that they struggle at home this season. They are just 15-21 this season at home and if you would bet on them at home game, you would make a loss of 16.2 units.

Calgary has bad recent record against Anaheim (lost 39 out of 52 last meetings) and they also lost 3 out of 10 home games.

I think that momentum is on Anaheim side today and I also think, that we have better team. Both teams traveled to Calgary (Flames will play first game after a road trip) and Anaheim had 1 day more rest.

Note also, that Calgary might play without Tkachuk and Brodie today. Tkachuk is their second best scorer and Brodie is their furth most important defensive player.

Play Anaheim +102

Bet at Bitcoinrush

NHL – Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

Bookmakers odds and my projections:

Most bookmakers opened this game in huge Toronto’s favour, which makes sense, because we have on one side very good team this season and on the other side we have struggling Montreal, that miss couple of important players.

Public will be on Toronto and current odds are more than -200 on them. I made projections for myself and my math model gives better chances to Toronto as well, but nut such a big chance. I give Toronto around 55.33% of chance to win this game and because of that, I have them at -124 / 1.81. On the other side I give Montreal 44.67% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Habs are +124 / 2.24.

Many injuries and open questions on both sides

This game can be very tricky from sports betting perspective and I would be especially careful with Toronto tonight, because if you bet on Maple Leafs, you get much lower price and they are playing without their best player Matthews. They score a lot, but they also receive a lot of goals recently.

Montreal on the other side is also playing without couple of injured players and some of them are questionable today. But they are playing most of the time without their most important players anyway. Montreal lost 6 out of last 7 games. Yes, this is true, but let’s check who they faced: Boston, NJ, Florida, Tampa Bay, CBJ, Dallas and Pittsburgh. All those teams are above league average teams, all those teams are in playoffs and most of them are the best teams in the league. So, they had pretty tough schedule.

This is a derby and Canadiens have great success against Toronto in recent meetings

This is a Canadian derby and Montreal is 7-0 in last 7 meetings in Toronto. They also beat them in last 20 out of 27 games. And I think that this game will be another very excited game, where any team can win. Definitely I think that the odds are little bit too big. Despite Habs are missing couple of players, players usually step up in those kind of games.

Play Montreal Canadiens at 2.88

Bet at Bitcoinrush